Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. North America weather forecast is crop favorable. China wheat areas are dry. West Canada is dry but rains are forecast June 13-19. Ukraine and S Russia are dry. Crude is lower. Stocks and gold are higher. Trump and XI call rallied soybean, cattle and copper. Soybeans and copper have erased the gains. US hiring slowed especially in business services, education and health. Procter and Gamble to cut 7,000 jobs or 15 pct of nonmanufacturing World workforce. FAO food index is 127.7 or down 8.2 pct for year, Cereal index down 8.2, vegoil up 19, sugar down 6.6, meat up 6.8 and dairy up 21.5. USDA US and World supply and demand next week.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.48. SN-SU down to 26. Dalian soybeans, palmoil, soyoil and soymeal were higher. US soybean export commit is up 12 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. One group dropped US 2024/25 soybean crush 20 mil vu which raised carryout to 374. They increased 2025/26 crush 60 mil bu vs USDA but dropped exports 215 mil bu. This leaves a carryout at 500 mil bu vs USDA 295. Canada canola exports are 8.35 mmt vs 5.24 ly. Argentina soybean harvest 90 pct crop est at 50 mmt vs USDA 49. China bot Brazil SB.
CORN
CN is near 4.36. CU-CZ spread -17. Dalian corn futures were higher. US corn export commit is up 27 pct vs ly and USDA up 13. S Korea bot 60 mt US PNW and 265 mt option origin, US weather is favorable with rains and warmer temps. Some feel parts of NE and IA need more rain. US 2024/25 corn exports could be up 100 mil bu vs USDA but feed/residual could be down 100. US 2025/26 exports could be 275 mil bu below USDA which increase carryout closer to 2,020. Argentina harvest 43 pct with crop est at 49 mmt vs USDA 49. S&P Global raised Brazil corn crop up 3 mmt to 138 vs USDA 130.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.41. KWN is near 5.38. MWN is near 6.23. It is dry in China, Canada and east EU. Matif firm waiting for delayed farmer selling with funds record short 300,000 contracts or 15 mmt. US wheat exports appear to be near 800 mil bu or down from USDA est of 820. This could increase carryout 20 mil bu for both 24/25 and 25/26. Canada wheat exports 22.7 mmt vs 20.6 ly.
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