ADMIS News
SUGAR
July Sugar is higher today after taking out the January low on Friday and falling to its lowest level since March 2024. It also fell to the 0.618 retracement of the long-term rally from the 2020 low to the 2023 high, which may have left the sellers exhausted. The market was under pressure the last couple of weeks on reports that India’s annual monsoon had arrived a week early this year, which pointed to a strong crop this year. Global production expectations were also buoyed by forecasts for a strong monsoon in Thailand. Eyes will be on the UNICA report this week to see if the seasonal reduction in rainfall during the second half of May helped boost Brazil’s Center-South harvest. The harvest got off to a slow start, which was attributed to heavier than normal rains in late April and early May. Brazil experienced record drought last year, leading to some concern about cane planting and development.
COTTON
December Cotton was near unchanged overnight and the market stayed inside a trading range extending back to May 13. US and China trade negotiators are meeting in London today, and a positive result could improve the US export outlook, which has been under duress from tariffs and an uncertain global economic outlook. China’s producer price index fell another 3.3% from year-ago levels in May, which keeps concern about their economy and therefore cotton demand alive. Action in the S&P 500 overnight points to a slightly higher open after it reached its highest level since March 3 on Friday, which is viewed as supportive to cotton demand. West Texas and the Delta both saw rainfall over the weekend, which present a mixed picture for the upcoming cotton crop, as Texas rain is beneficial, but saturated soils in the Delta likely slowed plantings again last week.
COCOA
Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals were estimated at 18,000 metric tons for the week ending June 8, down from 22,000 the previous week and 29,000 a year ago. This is also the lowest since April 13. Cumulative arrivals for the 2024/25 marketing year, which began in October, have reached 1.642 million tons, up from 1.537 million a year ago but the second lowest for this point in the season in at least five years. It is also below the five-year average of 1.893 million. It appears that West Africa is seeing ample rains to recharge soils. World Weather Service reported that rain and thunderstorms reached many cocoa production areas in West Africa, from Ivory Coast to Benin, over the weekend. The region is expected to see showers and thunderstorms during the next 7-10 days, which should maintain or possibly bolster soil moisture for the long term and boost pod growth for later this season and early next.
COFFEE
Safras & Mercado said on Friday that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest reached 28% of the planted area as of last Wednesday, up 8 percentage points from the previous week but slightly behind the five-year average of 29%. They added that that the recent rainfall had not compromised the progress of the harvest. The robusta harvest was estimated at 40%, slightly below the 42% at this point a year ago, and the arabica harvest was 21% complete, down from 23% at this point last season. The news that that harvest is running close to year ago levels, may have helped set September NY Coffee back after reaching the 50% retracement of the selloff from the contract high to the June 3 low, which it reached earlier in the session. Southern Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo did receive rain over the weekend, and World Weather Service said rainfall could continue to be greater than normal in southwestern Sao Paulo, but temperatures are non-threatening. Vietnamese government data showed the nation exported 813,000 metric tons of coffee in January-May, down 1.8% from the same period last year.
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