ADMIS News
SUGAR
October Sugar extended its selloff slightly overnight but avoided a steep selloff ahead of the UNICA report on Brazil’s sugar production for the second half of May, which is due out this morning. India’s monsoon rains appears to have restarted after a pause last week, and rains are expected to cover the central parts of the country this week. The nation has received 31% lower than average rainfall in the first half of June but is expected to see above average rain in the second half. The monsoon started about a week earlier than normal this year, which added to pressure on the sugar market in recent weeks. Aside from a higher open on Friday, the market has drawn very little support from the rally in crude oil off the Israel/Iran conflict. Another bearish factor is a strong Thai crop expected for this year. A senior government official told Reuters last week that that cane plantings for 2025/26 were up 8% from the previous year. For the UNICA report today, an S&P Global survey of analysts showed an average expectation calling for sugarcane crushing in to be +1.2% from the same period last year at 45.91 million tons and for sugar production to be +4.7% to 2.84 million tons. This would put cumulative production -13.% from a year ago, which would be a considerable improvement over the -23% as of the first half.
COTTON
December Cotton extended last week’s recovery rally slightly overnight. The market found support last week from a revision lower in the USDA’s forecast for US cotton production this summer, and it also drew support from the sharp rally in crude oil that came in the wake of the Israel-Iran attacks, which have extended into their fourth day. Crude oil has backed off from its overnight highs, which pulls some of support from cotton. The drop in the USDA’s production forecast stemmed from the overly wet conditions in the Delta, which have delayed plantings. The region is still too wet, and more rains are expected over the next 10 days. West Texas is expected to see only limited rains, but they could still see improvements in today’s crop conditions report after the rains they experienced last week.
COCOA
September Cocoa was higher overnight but inside Friday’s range. Ivory Coast port arrivals did show an improvement over recent weeks, and that may have helped pull the market off its overnight highs. Arrivals for the week ending June 15 were estimated at 25,000 metric tons, up from 18,000 the previous week and the highest since May 4. Cumulative arrivals have reached 1.659 million up rom 1.652 million at this point last year but below the five-year average of 1.928 million. West Africa cocoa regions, from Ivory Coast to Cameroon and southeastern Nigeria saw rainfall over the weekend, and routine rains are expected for the next 7-10 days
COFFEE
The Brazilian coffee harvest appears to be advancing at an average pace. Safras & Mercado said on Friday that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest reached 35% complete for the week ending June 11, up from 28% the previous week, down from 37% a year ago but above the five-year average of 33%. Sales of the expected output were in line with last year at 22% but below the five-year average of 31%. The Brazilian real has reached its highest level since October, which can make producers less anxious to sell. Nonetheless, the advancing harvest and lower trending robusta prices can keep the pressure on NY coffee. World Weather Service reported that temperatures in coffee production areas of Brazil were mild over the weekend and that significant rain was limited to Parana and southwestern Sao Paulo.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
