Global Ag News For June 24.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Brazil faces fertilizer cost spike as Middle East conflict escalates, experts say

Brazilian soybean and corn farmers will pay more to nourish their crops in the 2025/2026 season as the Iran-Israel conflict disrupts global suppliers and logistics, experts said.

According to a StoneX report on Monday, urea production in big suppliers Iran and Egypt has come to a halt. The interruption in Egypt is linked to a reduction in gas supplies from Israel. In Iran, urea and ammonia plants are paralyzed due to the risks associated with the war.

Brazil is a net fertilizer importer and local farmers are exposed to abrupt price swings in times of war. So far, Brazilian farmers have bought about 61% of the fertilizers needed for the second half but not all orders have been delivered, StoneX said.

Brazilian farmers who have yet to place orders are facing unfavorable terms of trade, according to StoneX analyst Renato Françoso. The situation may lead farmers to reduce applications this season, he said.

Fertilizers account for about 40% of the cost to plant soy and corn in Mato Grosso, according to farmer-backed research institute Imea.

In March 2025, for example, Brazilian farmers would need to sell 28 bags of soybeans to buy one ton of MAP fertilizer, StoneX estimated. Almost four months later, the ratio rose to 31 bags.

For corn farmers, the conflict in Iran, which analysts say supplies nearly 17% to 20% of Brazil’s urea fertilizer demand, is cause for immediate concern.

“The outlook for urea is uncertain, logistics are disrupted and we still have a very robust import program ahead of us,” said Agrinvest analyst Jeferson Souza. Domestically, urea prices rose 25% from last year, he estimates.

Brazil’s new grain season kicks off in September in the Center West.

For analyst Francisco Vieira at Agroconsult, it is too early to say if Brazilian farmers will sow smaller areas with corn or soybean due to higher fertilizer costs. He does not expect fertilizer shortages, noting suppliers outside the Middle East such as China or Morocco. “The biggest problem is price,” he said.

Evandro Turatto, director at Next Shipping, said charterers are already charging double to enter the Hormuz Strait which Iran is threatening to close, affecting multiple industries.

In the last 10 days, so-called break bulk container freight rose on average 30%, he said.

“If the war escalates, we could enter an unprecedented spiral of supply chain crises worse than during the pandemic,” Turatto said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 1/4 in SRW, down 6 1/2 in HRW, down 3 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 2 3/4; Soymeal up $1.90; Soyoil down 0.91.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 20 1/2 in SRW, down 20 3/4 in HRW, down 14 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 8 1/2; Soybeans down 16 3/4; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil down 2.25.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 15 in SRW, up 11 1/2 in HRW, up 5 in HRS; Corn is down 6; Soybeans up 17 1/4; Soymeal down $10.10; Soyoil up 5.19.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.0% in SRW, down 2.9% in HRW, up 4.8% in HRS; Corn is down 8.8%; Soybeans up 6.0%; Soymeal down 7.9%; Soyoil up 31.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans down 21 yuan; Soymeal down 13; Soyoil down 126; Palm oil down 134; Corn down 19 — Malaysian Palm is down 140.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 140 ringgit (-3.39%) at 3986.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 23 were: SRW Wheat down 10,346 contracts, HRW Wheat down 6,421, Corn down 13,585, Soybeans down 4,606, Soymeal down 2,354, Soyoil down 1,390.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 24 JUNE 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: According to our monthly forecast, the risk of heat and dryness in U.S. and Canadian Prairies will be elevated in July
• SOUTH AMERICA: The ongoing cold spell in southern Brazil is unlikely to reach main coffee regions but may affect less productive areas in Paraná and southern São Paulo
• EAST ASIA: Heavy rains caused widespread flooding in South and Central China, including southern parts of the North China Plain (Anhui, Hubei)
• BLACK SEA: Moderate rain is expected in Ukraine and southwest Russia this week, followed by dry conditions in early July

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, especially north. Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east through Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Midwest West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, mostly north. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Monday, near normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

 

HOT AND DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IN JULY

• Largely unfavorable forecast next month for croplands across North America
• General consensus among inputs increases forecast confidence

COLD RISKS ACROSS CROP AREAS OF SOUTHERN BRAZIL

What to Watch:

• A strong cold front will trigger a sharp drop in temperatures across Southern Brazil, with local frost events in Parana and surrounding areas
• The cold risks for coffee are low in the main producing areas of Southeast, but marginal impacts remain possible in the southernmost locations
• Low temperatures may affect mature second-crop corn in Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul

 

The player sheet for 6/23 had funds: net sellers of 7,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 13,000 corn, sellers of 8,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 6,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued a new international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in an international tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of wheat, which closed on Sunday, was assessed at $275.00 per ton CIF liner out.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 tons of milling wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.477m Tons of Corn for Export, 193k of Soybeans

In week ending June 19, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 255k tons vs 389k the previous wk, 345k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 193k tons vs 223k the previous wk, 350k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,477k tons vs 1,696k the previous wk, 1,153k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: June 19

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending June 19 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Germany-bound shipments made up 63k tons of the 193k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Japan led in wheat

 

Southern Europe lifts EU wheat yield outlook, EU crop monitor says

Crop monitoring service MARS on Monday raised its outlook for this year’s soft wheat yield in the European Union, citing high expectations in southern Europe, while noting that dry weather continued to threaten yields in the northern part of the bloc.

The service projected the EU’s soft wheat yield at 6.05 metric tons per hectare, against from 6.04 t/ha forecast last month. That was 9% above the yield in last year’s rain-hit harvest and also 5% above the five-year average.

France and the Benelux have suffered from a prolonged lack of rain just as winter crops are at the grain-filling stage. As dry weather is set to continue, winter and spring crop yields are likely to deteriorate, MARS said.

The summer of 2025 is forecast to be warmer and drier than usual in a wide area from the UK to the Black Sea, MARS said in a separate report on drought in Europe.

For barley, MARS projected the overall EU yield, including both winter and spring varieties, at 5.23 t/ha, up from 5.14 t/ha forecast last month and 10% higher than the five-year average.

For rapeseed, it projected the EU’s average yield in 2025 at 3.17 t/ha, down from 3.20 t/ha expected in April but up 8% from last year. It also marginally increased average grain maize yields to 7.46 t/ha, versus 7.45 t/ha in May.

For sugar beet, the 2025 EU yield was pegged at 76.3 t/ha, compared to 77.9 t/ha last month.

MARS noted that sugar beet and potatoes in Germany were under pressure from a pest spreading stolbur and other bacterial diseases. Preliminary estimates suggest that one third of sugar beet areas could be affected, it said.

While dryness is the problem in many regions, in northern Italy, winter crops show clear signs of stress after an excessively wet spring, affecting field conditions and probably crop outcomes.

 

Ukraine’s wheat harvest to fall 3% to 21.74 million tons, analyst ASAP Agri says

Analyst ASAP Agri sees Ukraine’s 2025 wheat harvest falling 3% to 21.74 million metric tons and the yield could average 4.37 tons per hectare, 3.5% less than a year earlier, the consultancy said on Monday.

It also said that Ukraine’s 2025/26 July-June wheat exports could total 15 million tons. Ukraine has exported 15.64 million tons of wheat as of June 23.

“ASAP Agri estimates Ukraine’s wheat export potential at 15.5 million tons, but sets its export forecast at 15 million tons, considering the impact of EU import quotas on Ukrainian wheat and intensifying competition from Russian wheat in Turkey and Asian markets,” it said on Telegram messenger.

The EU temporarily waived duties and quotas on agricultural products in June 2022 after Russia’s full-scale invasion to help Ukraine compensate for the higher costs of its exports, after Russia threatened its traditional Black Sea shipping lanes.

Those tariff suspensions expired on June 5 and the two sides are negotiating a new deal that will set import quotas on agricultural goods from Ukraine somewhere “in between” current levels and the temporary exemptions granted after the invasion.

The wheat import quota totalled just 1 million tons in 2021.

ASAP Agri said wheat harvesting activity was expected to intensify in Ukraine by June 25.

Ukrainian agriculture minister Vitaliy Koval told Reuters this month that the country’s 2025 grain harvest may decrease by 10% to around 51 million tons compared to 56.7 million in 2024, according to the most pessimistic estimates.

The volume could include from 20 to 22 million tons of wheat. Ukraine harvested 21.7 million tons of wheat in 2024.

The farm ministry expects that Ukraine’s grain exports could total 35 to 40 million tons in the new 2025/26 season.

 

Indonesia April Palm Oil Exports Fall to 1.8m Tons: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell to 1.78m tons in April from revised 2.88m tons in March, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki).

• Palm oil output rose to 4.9m tons from 4.81m tons in March
  • Crude palm oil (CPO) production rose to 4.48m tons from 4.39m tons in March
  • Jan.-April CPO output 16.5m tons, +0.9% y/y
• Jan.-April total output at 18m tons, exports at 9.42m tons
• Palm oil stockpiles rise to 3.05m tons in April from revised 2.02m tons in March
• Palm oil domestic consumption fell to 2.1m tons from revised 2.17m tons in March
• Palm oil for biodiesel domestic consumption fell to 1.05m tons from revised 1.1m tons in March

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Trades move at a slow pace in the spot market

Import prices of wheat, especially from Argentina, are below those verified in Brazil. Therefore, wheat mills continue to focus on closing trades abroad, limiting deals in the domestic spot market.

Based on data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), between June 9 and 13, the import parity price for the wheat from Argentina delivered to Paraná state was at USD 251.62/ton. Considering the average of the US dollar in that period, at BRL 5.5543, the wheat imported was sold at BRL 1,397.58/ton, while for the Brazilian wheat traded in Paraná, the average was at BRL 1,513.32/ton, according to data from Cepea. In Rio Grande do Sul, the price of the product from Argentina closed at USD 235.57/ton, which accounts for BRL 1,308.44/ton – against BRL 1,351.06/ton on the average of the state calculated by Cepea.

In spite of that, prices are stable in the spot market, which can be related to the area decrease in the current season and weather conditions.

According to data from Cepea, between June 13 and 20, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values rose 0.16% in Rio Grande do Sul, but downed 0.39% in Santa Catarina and 0.79% in Paraná. The prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) remained stable in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, but decreased 0.26% in Paraná and upped 1.08% in São Paulo. The US dollar moved down 0.25% against Real, at BRL 5.523 on June 20.

 

Louis Dreyfus to reopen rival’s former grain export terminal in Indiana

Louis Dreyfus Company will reopen a shuttered U.S. grains terminal in Burns Harbor, Indiana, on the southern edge of Lake Michigan in early 2026, providing the global commodities trader export market access via the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway, the Rotterdam-based company said on Monday.

The facility was built by rival grains merchant Cargill in 1979 but has been idled since 2023, when the company ceased operations there due to difficult market conditions.

Privately-held Dreyfus is the “D” in the ABCD quartet of global grains trading giants, along with Cargill, Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge Global. All four companies have faced eroding profits due to a global grains glut and tepid demand.

The Burns Harbor terminal will be able to load up to 90,000 bushels an hour on grain ships as large as 30,000 metric tons in capacity, about half the size of ships loaded at larger terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast and Pacific Northwest.

The facility can also unload up to 30,000 bushels an hour from unit trains, and it includes storage capacity for 7.2 million bushels of grain, along with 200 rail cars and 20 barges, Dreyfus said.

“Burns Harbor is well-positioned at the southern shore of Lake Michigan, with access to multiple regional grain markets. The port will be a strategic asset for LDC to expand market access for regional farmers and serve customers in North America and abroad,” Gordon Russell, head grains and oilseeds at Dreyfus, said in a release.

Terms of the deal with the Ports of Indiana were not disclosed.

Grain exports from the Great Lakes system represent a small share of total U.S. agricultural exports, which were valued at $176 billion last year, with the bulk of crop shipments departing the country from the U.S. Gulf Coast or the Pacific Northwest.

Exporters have shipped only about 125,000 metric tons of corn and wheat so far this year from Lakes terminals after shipping about 1.06 million tons of corn, wheat and soybeans at its ports last year, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture export inspections data.

 

US Egg Production Fell 5.6% in May From Year Ago: USDA

The US produced 8.59b eggs in May vs 9.1b in the same period a year ago, according to a report from the USDA.

• Output of table eggs fell 6.4% y/y to 7.3b
• Hatching eggs down 0.8% to 1.29b

 

India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 2% Above Normal as of June 23

India has so far received 114.8 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a normal of 113 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on June 23.

• Rainfall in the northwestern region was at 30% above normal
• The eastern and northeastern region got 13% below normal rains
• Cumulative seasonal rainfall data is compiled by the IMD

 

 

 

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