Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were down $.03-$.05 with old crop futures rebounding a bit against new crop. Favorable US weather and sharply lower energy prices continue to weigh on the Ag. space. July-25 reached a fresh contract low while Dec-25 held just above its $4.28 low. The USDA announced the sale of 630k mt (25 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico. Roughly 22 mil. bu. was for the 25/26 MY with 3 mil. for 26/27. The delayed CFTC report showed MM’s sold another 21k contracts last week. We estimate they sold another 13k yesterday extending their short position to around 200k contracts, the largest in 10 months. Likely larger after today’s trade. Crop ratings slipped 2% to 70% G/E vs. expectations for slight improvement. 4% of the crop is silking, in line with YA and just above the 5-year Ave. of 3%. EU 24/25 corn imports as of June 22nd at 19.3 mmt are up 3.8% from YA. IMO with Sept-25 futures at $4.12, prices appear undervalued from a historical perspective suggesting the market is discounting the likelihood of higher production in SA, helping ease global tightness and record yields here in the US in 2025.
SOYBEANS
Prices turned lower across the complex with beans down $.09-$.12, meal was off $1-$2 while oil fell by just over a penny per lbs. Bean spreads weakened while product spreads were mixed. July-25 beans closed back below both its 50 and 100 day MA’s with next support at the June low of $10.32 ½. Nov-25 beans closed right at its 50 day MA support. July-25 oil worked itself back into the gap area left from last Monday’s limit up move however closing back above the $.52 price level. New contract low for July-25 meal for the 3rd consecutive session. Spot board crush margins slipped another $.04 to $1.44 bu. with bean oil PV dipping to 48.2%. New crop crush margins were down $.06 to $1.91 ½ bu. Overnight Pres. Trump posted on Truth Social that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has been reached. Easing tensions in the Middle East has allowed spot crude oil prices to drop another $4 per barrel closing $14 below yesterday’s high. The CFTC report showed MM’s were net buyer of 33.5k beans, 21.4k bean oil while net sellers of just over 20k contract of soybean meal extending their short position very close to a record large 107k contracts. Bean plantings advanced 3% to 96% complete, matching YA while behind the 5-year Ave. of 97%. Crop ratings held steady at 66% G/E. Conditions improved in only 6 states, declined in 10 while holding steady in 2. 8% of the crop is blooming vs. YA and the 5-year Ave. of 7%. EU bean imports at 13.8 mmt are up 7% YOY. Meal imports at 18.9 mmt are up 27%.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.02-$.17 lower today with MGEX futures holding in much better than CGO and KC. Both KC and CGO July-25 contracts plunged thru their 100 day MA support yesterday, and the 50 day MA support today. Support for CGO comes in at $5.22 and $5.18 for KC. MGEX July-25 held a test of its 100 day MA at $6.17 ½ while gaining $.15 bu. on the CGO contracts back to an $.89 premium. MM’s bought over 31k contracts in the 3 classes combined cutting their short position to 152k, where just over a month ago it was a record short at 235k contracts. Both winter wheat and spring wheat conditions slipped 3% to 49% and 54% G/E respectively. WW conditions improved in only 4 states, declined in 11 while holding steady in 3. Harvest advanced 9% to 19% complete, the slowest since 2019, vs. 38% YA and 5-year Ave. of 28%. EU soft wheat exports as of June 22nd at 19.9 mmt are down 35% YOY.
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