Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Midwest temps are dissipating with showers in upper Midwest. US stocks are mixed. USD is higher. Crude is higher but near $63. Gold is unch but below 3,400. June US Consumer confidence dropped to 93 vs 98 in May and expectations near 99.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.28. BOU is near 52 cents. SMU is near 286. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. Some est US June 1 soybean stocks near 984 mil bu vs 970 ly. Brazil farmer selling remains quiet. China buying Brazil soybeans also quiet. Brazil will increase biofuel blend from B14 to B15. One crop scout est US soybean crop at 4,252 mil bu vs USDA 4,340. EU oilseed imports are up 12 pct vs ly, soymeal are up 14 pct and vegoil imports are down 21 pct. Higher US soybean crush for soyoil demand could weigh on soymeal prices. SMZ-SMH26 spread has widened out to -7.5.
CORN
CU is near 4.09. Non-threatening US summer weather could drop CZ closer to 3.95. CU-CZ widened to -16. Dalian corn was lower. Some est US June 1 corn stocks near 4,683 mil bu vs 4,997 ly. One crop scout est US corn crop at 15,730 mil bu vs USDA 15,820. EU corn imports are up 4 pct vs ly while exports are down 40 pct. USDA announced 554 mt US corn for 25/26 to Mexico and 75 mt corn also to Mexico for 26/27. There has been some talk Brazil corn crop could be as high as 150 mmt. There are also est that Aug-Dec exports could test 2023 total near 40 mmt.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.651. KWU is near 5.48. MWEU is near 6.42. Some est US June 1 wheat stocks near 842 mil bu vs 696 ly. There is talk EU wheat crop could be up 2 mmt from USDA est but farmer selling to date still less than 10 pct. EU wheat exports are down 34 pct vs ly while imports are down 19 pct. Managed funds have sold 12,000 Chicago wheat contracts in last 2 days. Wheat futures dropped due to lower Black Sea prices and approaching north hemisphere harvest. US farmers are expected to sell wheat off the combine. Matif wheat futures are lower and Sep-Dec spread is widening. There are reports that Egypt bought from 300 mt to 1.0 mmt of Black Sea and Balkan wheat.
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