Global Ag News For June 27.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Ukraine may revisit imposing oilseed export duties, farm lobby says

Ukraine’s parliament is likely to resume a debate over imposing a 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans, a proposal it rejected earlier this month, the country’s farm lobby UCAB said on Thursday, citing information from lawmakers.

Parliament has not commented on the matter.

The duty had been proposed this month by pro-government lawmakers, who said exports of processed oilseeds could bring in more revenue than sales of raw seeds.

Grain traders union UGA said the proposal could hurt farmers and reduce Ukrainian farm exports.

Ukraine is a major European grower and exporter of oilseeds, sending abroad most of its rapeseed crop and around half of its soybean output. Those exports are currently not taxed.

UGA and the country’s major union of food producers UAC had said they opposed the proposal.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 1/2 in SRW, up 4 in HRW, up 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 5 3/4; Soybeans up 3 3/4; Soymeal down $0.20; Soyoil down 0.02.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 41 1/4 in SRW, down 41 in HRW, down 25 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 15 3/4; Soybeans down 40 1/2; Soymeal down $11.20; Soyoil down 2.27.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 6 in SRW, down 9 1/4 in HRW, down 6 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 13 1/2; Soybeans down 6 1/2; Soymeal down $21.80; Soyoil up 5.18.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.5% in SRW, down 6.3% in HRW, up 2.6% in HRS; Corn is down 9.7%; Soybeans up 2.8%; Soymeal down 12.2%; Soyoil up 32.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans down 8 yuan; Soymeal down 13; Soyoil up 20; Palm oil up 18; Corn down 1 — Malaysian Palm is up 46.

Malaysia markets are closed for holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 26 were: SRW Wheat down 555 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,148, Corn down 21,077, Soybeans down 15,495, Soymeal down 3,345, Soyoil up 2,536.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 27 JUNE 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: The next week likely to bring mild temperatures and regional rains across the U.S. Midwest, favorable outlook for local spring crops
• SOUTH AMERICA: The main frost events earlier in the week were confined to Paraná region, but cold temperatures between 1-6 °C may have affected local coffee crops in the São Paulo region
• BLACK SEA: Cold and locally wet conditions are expected in Western Russia, with potential for further improvement in soil moisture across Central and Volga Districts
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: High rainfall is likely to persist across Vietnam’s Robusta coffee-growing regions, maintaining high soil moisture levels during the blooming stage
• TROPICS: Tropical activity over the Atlantic remains quiet, with no signs of increased activity expected over the next 2–3 weeks

 

Northern Plains: Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms have been moving through this week, hitting some areas with needed rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms continue to move across the region through the weekend and could produce more meaningful rainfall while some areas get missed.

Central/Southern Plains: A stalled front has produced some areas of heavy rain across northern areas this week. That front will shift down into the Southern Plains for Thursday and Friday after these areas have gotten a chance to dry out a bit. Another front will go sweeping through the region this weekend into early next week with more showers and we could see it stall across Texas or Oklahoma for a few days as well. Rainfall continues to be largely favorable for corn, soybeans, and other spring-sewn crops, but is having a negative impact on some wheat areas that are in the midst of harvest that has been delayed.

Midwest: A stalled front continues to bring areas of heavy rainfall to northern areas on Thursday, before getting pushed southward by a system moving along it for Friday and Saturday. That should help to ease temperatures several degrees. And then another front will sweep through the region Sunday and Monday, likely with widespread showers. Southern areas have seen some spotty showers, but many areas have had a chance to dry out a bit. The combination of heat and soil moisture should improve growth for many in the region. More rain in the short-term forecast could be unwanted by some, though others that did get to dry out may enjoy some rainfall coming through.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Flow coming north from the Gulf has been and will continue to produce isolated showers through the weekend. While most areas will see drier conditions that would help to drain soils and promote growth, some areas could see heavy downpours. A front will move into the region early next week and if it stalls, could produce more heavy rainfall potential.

Canadian Prairies: Another system will move through Friday and Saturday that could produce more widespread precipitation after disturbances ahead of it have been producing limited showers. But even with these systems, showers are coming via thunderstorm clusters that have a tendency on missing some areas. Even so, the rain that does fall will certainly be useful. Temperatures were cold this weekend behind the system and some patchy frost likely occurred in parts of Alberta, which continued on Monday and Tuesday mornings as well. Some limited damage may have occurred. More systems are slated to move through later next week and weekend and at least continue chances for rain.

Brazil: Cold air that moved in behind a front produced frosts as far north as Sao Paulo earlier this week, which may have damaged specialty crops in the area. Corn that saw frost was mostly mature and not likely damaged by it. Another front has moved into the south and will stay active through the weekend. More cold air will move in behind it for next week, but is not currently forecast to move very far north to have much of an impact as of the current forecast.

Argentina: Colder temperatures have been producing widespread frosts and freezes which continue for at least the next week, but have no significant impact on the remaining corn and soybean harvests or winter wheat establishment. Though drier conditions will continue to promote harvest, rainfall is needed for winter wheat establishment. Very little is forecast.

Europe: Hotter and drier conditions over the past week have been largely favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest, but have stressed some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. A system passed through earlier this week with showers across the north, and another is doing so for Thursday. But temperatures are largely forecast to stay above normal through most of next week and on some days, be extremely hot. Any areas that are dry or miss out on the showers this week could see additional stress developing. Rain does not look to return until later next week and may not be very widespread either.

Black Sea: Waves of isolated showers have been moving through over the last couple of weeks and continue through the weekend before going on another dry stretch. The rain is helping some lucky areas that get hit while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall as the crop goes further toward or into maturity, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain. Cooler temperatures in the area could help to reduce the stress, though.

VERY UNFAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST ACROSS EUROPE

What to Watch:

• Widespread warm and dry weather expected across Europe
• Cool and wet weather across much of the Black Sea region

 

The player sheet for 6/26 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 110,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to Egypt for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• WHEAT TENDER: A group of South Korean flour mills has issued an international tender to purchase about 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S. only.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued a new international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 559.1K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 1.05M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending June 19.

• All wheat sales fell to 255k tons vs 427k in previous week
• Corn sales fell to 1,047k tons vs 1,059k in previous week
• Soybean sales fell to 559k tons vs 615k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending June 19, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Mexico with 118k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 244k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Japan with 94k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending June 19, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 30.6k tons of the 51.4k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

LIVESTOCK: US Hog and Pig Inventory Rose 0.3% Y/y; Est. -0.2%

The hog herd totaled 75.137m head on June 1, according to the USDA report released Thursday on its website.

Sows retained for breeding totaled 5.979m head, a 0.5% decline from year ago

• Hogs for slaughter rose 0.4% y/y to 69.158m head
• Pig crop rose to 34.171m from 33.743m last year
• Pigs per litter rose to 11.75 from 11.56 last year

 

Dry weather boosts 2025/26 wheat planting in Argentina, grains exchange says

Dry weather over the last week in most of Argentina boosted 2025/26 wheat planting, especially in key farm areas that had been suffering with excess moisture after heavy rains in May, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday.

“The good weather allowed the acceleration of farm work in particularly delayed regions … like the southern farming core and central Buenos Aires province,” the exchange said in its weekly grains report.

Wheat sowing moved ahead 12.4 percentage points over the last week, with the total planted area rising to 72.7% of 6.7 million hectares expected for the new season’s wheat, the exchange said. Argentina is a leading world wheat exporter.

Regarding 2024/25 soybeans and corn, the exchange said that farmers have already harvested 98.3% of the soy crop and 55.3% of corn. The exchange pegs Argentina’s soy and corn production at 50.3 million metric tons and 49 million tons, respectively.

Argentina is the world’s largest soymeal and soyoil exporter, and the third biggest corn exporter.

 

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates June 26: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2024-25 production estimates maintained for soybeans and corn
• Soybean harvest advanced to 98.3% complete vs 96.5% in the previous week
• 2025-26 wheat planting advanced to 72.7% complete vs 60.3% in the previous week

 

Argentina soy sales spike ahead of tax deadline; could stall in July

Argentina’s soybean sales doubled in the first 18 days of June versus a year earlier to 4.71 million tons as farmers raced to close deals before a planned hike in export taxes on July 1, official data analyzed by Reuters and industry sources showed.

The government of libertarian Javier Milei temporarily lowered taxes on soy at the start of the year, a cut which expires in July. That will see the tax on soybeans rise to 33% from 26%, with soy oil and soymeal both going to 31% from 24.5%.

The data, public but previously unreported, underscore how producers in the world’s top exporter of soybean oil and meal are front-loading sales to get the lower tax rate, which industry insiders said could see deals stall abruptly in July.

 

Datagro raises Brazil’s 2024/25 corn, soybean crop estimates

Agribusiness consultancy Datagro hiked its forecast for Brazil’s 2024/25 corn and soybeans crop, it said in a statement on Thursday.

Brazil’s 2024/25 corn crop is seen at 134 million metric tons, a nearly 1% increase from its previous estimate and 10% higher than the 122 million tons harvested in 2023/24.

The soybean harvest, which has already been completed, is seen at 173.5 million tons, up about 0.8% from its prior estimate and 12% higher than the 2023/24 harvest.

 

IGC Slightly Raises Global Grain Stock Outlook; Boosts Rice Est.

Global grain stockpiles are expected to total 586m tons in the 2025-26 season, according to the International Grains Council, up 1m tons from last month’s estimate.

• Total grain production seen steady at 2.38b tons
• The following commodities all saw ending stock forecasts raised from the previous month:
  • Rice seen at 184m tons, up 5m tons
  • Wheat seen at 264m tons, up 2m tons
  • Soybeans seen at 82m, up 1m tons
• Forecasts for corn stockpiles were cut 2m tons to 282m tons

 

EU Boosts Total Grain Production Forecast for 2025-26 Season

The EU’s total grain production is now estimated at 282.9m tons in the 2025-26 season that begins next week, up from forecast of 279.6m tons, the European Commission said in its latest outlook.

• The following crop outlooks were all raised:
  • Soft wheat to 128.2m tons, from 126.6m tons
  • Barley to 53.3m tons, from 52.3m tons
  • Corn to 64.6m tons, from 63.8m tons
• The estimate for total grain production in the 2024-25 season is unchanged at 255.2m tons

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending June 24: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending June 24, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Drought conditions in corn-growing areas fell to 16% from 17% in the previous week
• Drought in soybean areas fell to 12% vs 13%
• Spring wheat crops in drought rose by 3 points to 25%

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 760k tons in the week ending June 21 from 733k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 2% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 10.4% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $13.33 per short ton, an increase of $0.80 from the previous week

 

 

 

 

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