ADMIS News
SUGAR
October Sugar was higher overnight, perhaps finding support from a dry pattern in southern India or from the fact that at last week’s low the market had already fallen 18% from the March high. Thailand and India are expected to see strong cane crops this year. The India Meteorological Department said yesterday that the annual monsoon rains are set to cover the entire country within the next three to four days, more than a week ahead of their typical schedule. The monsoon had arrived two weeks early, but then it stalled in early June. Rainfall was 31% below average in the first half of June, but it has recovered to a 9% surplus for the month so far. World Weather Service says southern India will continue to dry out during the next ten days and rain will soon be needed there. India has major cane growing areas in the north, center west and southern regions of the county. Brazil cane areas did not appear to see any damage from this week’s cold temperatures. We expect the next UNICA report on Brazilian Center South production, for the first half of June, to be released next week, possibly Monday.
COTTON
December Cotton is higher for the fifth straight session this morning, as it appears to be benefiting from a weak dollar, which helps make US cotton more competitive on the global market. The nearby dollar index has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022 this week. A more optimistic economic tone, with stock indices approaching record highs, is also supportive to cotton consumption. The market pushed aside a disappointing export sales yesterday which had net of 27,342 bales for the 2024/25 (current) marketing year and of 64,664 for 2025/26 for a total of 92,006. This was down from 358,089 the previous week and the lowest since September. New crop sales were the second highest since March but well off the 274,891 from the previous week. World Weather Service says West Texas should see periodic rain over the next week before drier and warmer weather returns. The Delta will be dry through much of the next two weeks with a few light showers on occasion and timely rain in much of the region Monday into Wednesday.
COCOA
West Africa saw regular rainfall this week, which is viewed as beneficial to the cocoa crop, but traders are on the lookout for too much rain, which could cause disease problems. Widespread rain was seen across Ivory Coast and Ghana over the last 24 hours. Yesterday the Chief Executive COCOBOD (Ghana’s cocoa regulator) said they expect their nation’s cocoa production to reach 600,000 metric tons in 2024/25 and to exceed that level in 2025/26. The 2024/25 number is in line with the ICCO forecast and would be the second lowest production that country has seen since 2004. This does mark a recovery from 2023/24, when they only produced 449,000 tons, which was a significant decline from their peak of 1.047 million in 2020/21. COCOBOD plans to carry approximately 100,000 tons of undelivered contracts forward to next season after servicing the most the rolled-over cocoa obligations from 2023/24. They had to postpone the delivery of more than 330,000 tons last season due to poor output. The fact that it is taking them two years to dig out of that hole may also be supporting the market. Ghana is taking steps to build their production back up after being ravaged by swollen shoot disease, a lack of investment, smuggling, and illegal mine operations that poison the land
COFFEE
September Coffee is near unchanged this morning after falling to its lowest level since December on Wednesday. The market has fallen to the bottom of a narrow trading range that lasted from mid-December to mid-January, and the low of that range (297.60) from December 31 has held so far. Reuters reported that Cooxupe, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative said they have harvested around 24% of their expected (arabica) coffee crop, but they also said that many ripe cherries had fallen to the ground, which could affect the quality of the beans. One consultant told Reuters that some of the cherries have been on the ground for 40-60 days and that the recent rainfall and high soil moisture could result some of the fruits germinating before being collected. The consultant also said they were still assessing the impact of the frost this week. World Weather Service and other sources have said that the cold weather has posed little threat to the current crop or to flower buds for the next crop.
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