Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to slightly lower. US stocks are mixed. USD is lower. Crude is near $66. Gold is lower. US Fed is not lowering US rates awaiting clarity on economic data. Economy, jobs and tariffs oh my.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.12. Dalian soybean and soymeal were lower and near 1 month low. Palmoil and soyoil were higher. Trade awaits word on EPA announcement on SRE’s for refiners that have claimed financial hardship due to blending requirements under the RVO. US central Midwest is favorable to July 22. USDA left US soybean G/E rating unch but yield is est at 53.0-53.5. US soybean export inspection is near 1,699 mil bu or up 10 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. SMZ-SMH spread widened out to new high at -9.7. Argentina charted first soymeal vessel to China. Uncertain demand to Asia trade partners and normal US Midwest weather offers resistance to futures.
CORN
CU is near 4.01. Dalian corn futures were lower on talk of higher China crop supply. US central Midwest is favorable to July 22. Normal US Midwest July weather during pollination could suggest harvest low near 3.60. USDA to increased US corn G/E rating which suggest a yield of 186. 18 pct of crop is silking vs 22 ly. Increase SA corn supplies could lower final US exports. Slow Brazil corn harvest could suggest a longer export tail. US corn export inspections are near 2,222 mil bu or up 19 pct vs ly and USDA up 13. Trumps announced higher tariffs for S Korea and Japan, large buyers of US corn. CZ-CH spread widened to -17.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.48. Combination of Increase north hemisphere harvest and seasonal post harvest rally could keep nearby Chicago wheat in broad 5.00-5.80 range. KWU is near 5.27. MWU is near 6.33. Concern about EU protein has increased talk of higher demand for milling wheat and talk lower EU corn crop could increase EU wheat feeding. US wheat export inspections are near 64 mil bu vs 63 ly. USDA rated the US winter wheat crop unch at 48 pct G/E. Harvest is near 53 pct. USDA dropped US spring wheat crop rating 3 pct to 50 pct G/E. 61 pct of the crop is heading.
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