Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. USD is higher. Crude is near $67. Gold is lower. Copper is lower after sharp gains after Trump announced 50 pct tariff on copper. Trump announced 200 pct tariff on pharmaceuticals.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.08. SX-SF spread widened to -17. US new crop soybean export sales are multi decade low. SMZ-SMH spread record wide at -10. Dalian soybean and soymeal were higher which dropped crush margins. Palmoil and soyoil were higher. Trade awaits word on EPA announcement on SRE’s for refiners that have claimed financial hardship due to blending requirements under the RVO. US central Midwest is favorable to July 22. July 1 Brazil soybean stocks were 77.5 mmt vs 68.0 ly and Argentina were 43.3 mmt vs 39.4 ly. EU oilseed imports are up 13 pct vs ly, meal up 14 pct.
CORN
CU is near 3.99. Overnight low was 3.98. CU-CZ spread found support near -15. Dalian corn futures were lower and 6 week low on talk of higher China crop supply. US central Midwest is favorable to July 22. Normal US Midwest July weather during pollination could suggest harvest low near 3.60. Increase SA corn supplies could lower final US exports. Slow Brazil corn harvest could suggest a longer export tail. Trump announced higher tariffs for S Korea and Japan, large buyers of US corn. EU corn imports are up 4 pct vs ly, exports down 41 pct.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.49. Combination of Increase north hemisphere harvest and seasonal post harvest rally could keep nearby Chicago wheat in broad 5.00-5.80 range. KWU is near 5.23. MWU is near 6.35. Concern about EU protein has increased talk of higher demand for milling wheat and talk lower EU corn crop could increase EU wheat feeding. EU 24/25 wheat exports ened near 21.6 mmt down 34 pct vs last year. EU wheat exports down 19 pct vs last year. Manitoba, Canada wheat crop rated 90 pct G/E, Sask 65 pct G/E vs 55 in June and Alberta 62 pct G/E unch from June.
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