Global Ag News For July 10.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Corn Leafhopper Confirmed in Reno County Today (7-9-25)

July 9, 2025-K-State Row Crop Plant Pathologist Rodrigo Onofre, Phd., says corn leafhopper has been found in Reno County. This is the first detection of corn leafhopper in Kansas in 2025. Onofre’s team, coordinating with the Kansas Corn Commission, Independent Crop Consultants and Corteva established a trapping program with sites across the state to monitor for corn leafhoppers. A crop consultant involved in this collaborative effort found corn leafhopper in Reno County.

Late-planted corn and/or double cropped corn are at higher-risk of yield impact than early planted crop. Corn stunt disease symptoms can take up to 40 days for symptoms to become visible.

Not all leafhoppers are corn leafhoppers. If the corn leafhopper is found near or in your area, begin scouting your fields.

Due to the efficiency of the corn leafhopper to transmit pathogens associated with corn stunt disease, there is no economic threshold.

Growers are encouraged to apply insecticide when corn leafhoppers are detected. At this time, it is unknown the exact corn growth stage at which scouting should cease. Past guidance encouraged through V8 but more studies are needed to verify the validity of this claim. Keep in mind that spraying for CLH could increase the chances of spider mites.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 in SRW, up 9 in HRW, up 4 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans up 3/4; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil up 0.40.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 11 3/4 in SRW, down 11 3/4 in HRW, down 10 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 23 3/4; Soybeans down 43; Soymeal down $9.80; Soyoil down 1.13.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 13 3/4 in SRW, up 6 1/4 in HRW, up 14 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 10 3/4; Soybeans down 19; Soymeal down $6.30; Soyoil up 0.92.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.6% in SRW, down 9.6% in HRW, up 3.1% in HRS; Corn is down 10.1%; Soybeans up 1.4%; Soymeal down 13.8%; Soyoil up 34.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans down 2 yuan; Soymeal up 3; Soyoil up 6; Palm oil down 28; Corn down 4 — Malaysian Palm is down 10.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 10 ringgit (-0.24%) at 4147.

There were changes in registrations (308 Soybeans). Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 1,309 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 1,856 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 9 were: SRW Wheat up 1,767 contracts, HRW Wheat up 802, Corn down 21,279, Soybeans up 7,643, Soymeal up 585, Soyoil up 843.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 09 JULY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Dry conditions are likely across the central/northern U.S. Plains and Canadian Prairies during the next 10 days, with anomalies between 10-20 mm below normal
• SOUTH AMERICA: Significant dryness remains expected across Southern Brazil through the end of the month
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Widespread warmth will prevail across Thailand and much of Vietnam during the next two weeks
• AUSTRALIA: A largely normal weather pattern will benefit croplands throughout Australia during the next 10+ days
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Arctic Oscillation (AO), which is currently in a positive phase, is expected to drop towards a neutral-negative level during in mid-July

INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A WEAK LA NIÑA EVENT DURING SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER

What to Watch:

• General consensus between analog analysis and numerical guidance
• Some notable shifts in global anomalies since previous update

 

Northern Plains: Showers have been frequent across the region lately, but being scattered they have missed some areas. Several disturbances and systems will move through this week and next, which keeps the region active. Only scattered showers are being forecast and areas of heavy rain will be contained to thunderstorms that develop. Some severe weather should be expected as well.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to pass through the region going through next week while temperatures are generally seasonable. The rain may have delayed some of the remaining winter wheat harvest, but it continues to produce overall good conditions for corn and soybean development. Multiple fronts are forecast to move through this week and next, which will keep the region busier than normal for summer as corn and soybeans head into pollination.

Midwest: A system continues across eastern portions of the region on Wednesday, another will move through Friday through the weekend, and another will move through next week, keeping the region very busy. Some areas that are a bit dry could pick up some needed rain while others stay unfavorably wet. Temperatures remain generally mild to warm into next week but should fall below normal behind next week’s system. Most areas are in good shape as corn and soybeans head into pollination.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A front settling into northern areas and moisture increasing northward from the Gulf are produce scattered showers for most of the week. Another front is forecast to settle into the area for a few days this weekend into next week. Though some areas have had a chance to dry out a bit, the coming rainfall is going to keep some areas too wet.

Canadian Prairies: Some areas across Manitoba and Saskatchewan have missed out on recent rainfall and are in need of rain. A couple of disturbances will move through this week and next, but will bring scattered showers that may miss some areas. The models have reversed a trend for heavier rain across eastern areas later this week and now only show limited showers, unfavorable as wheat and canola are in their reproductive stages.

Brazil: Drier conditions over the last week have been favorable for the ongoing safrinha corn harvest and to drain some wet soils across the south from previous rainfall. Recent colder temperatures have also meant frost across some southern areas, which likely did not have an impact on maturing corn or vegetative wheat, but may have for specialty crops. Drier conditions continue this week with increasing temperatures.

Argentina: Temperatures will rise above normal this week, and a pair of fronts could produce some meaningful and welcome showers for southern and central areas that could use some rain.

Europe: A system has moved into the east and stalled, bringing through a relief in temperatures after a couple of very hot weeks. Showers should continue over the eastern half of the continent into next week, disrupting the wheat harvest, but favoring drier locations with some needed rainfall. Western areas are more at risk with limited rainfall and increasing temperatures that should spread through the continent again next week.

Black Sea: A system is stalling over eastern Europe and is bringing showers to parts of Ukraine going into next week. But southwestern Russia will see very little precipitation with heat building. That will be good for maturing and harvesting wheat, but not for vegetative corn and sunflowers as many areas have limited soil moisture and need some solid rains.

 

The player sheet for 7/9 had funds: net sellers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 9,000 soybeans, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: Tunisian state grains agency ONF is believed to have purchased about 50,000 metric tons of corn to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Wednesday
• CORN TENDER PASSED: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender on Wednesday for up to 69,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in an international tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of wheat on Wednesday was assessed at $268.90 a metric ton CIF liner out.
• CORN AND SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 60,000 tons of soymeal.

PENDING TENDERS

• SOYMEAL TENDER: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) has issued an international tender to purchase between 40,000 to 60,000 metric tons of soymeal
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase at least 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending July 3.

• Corn est. range 400k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 975k
• Soybean est. range 300k – 900k tons, with avg of 613k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 0.7% to 23.959M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 23.969 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.085m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.068m

 

Ukraine 2025-26 Grain, Oilseed Harvest Set to Jump 5.5% Y/Y: IFX

The Ukrainian Grain Association expects the combined grain and oilseeds harvest in the 2025-26 season to increase 5.5% y/y to 83m tons, Interfax reports, citing the group chairman Mykola Gorbachov.

• Forecast is helped by the corn crop, which “looks very good”
  • Output seen at 29.3m ton; harvesting likely to start in late September
• May boost forecast to 30m tons if weather is favorable
• Corn export in the 2025-2026 season seen at 24m tons vs 21.5m tons
• Wheat harvest is expected at 22.5m tons, unchanged from last year; export is forecast at 16.5m tons
• Barley seen at 4.9m tons, same as year before; export forecast is 2.3m tons
• Winter rapeseed was affected by adverse weather in winter; harvest will drop to 3m tons, with exports forecast at 2.6m tons
• Sunflower harvest to rise to 15m tons vs 12.7m tons in previous season

 

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks hit 18-month high in June on surprise exports slump

• Palm oil stocks rise 2.41% m/m to 2.03 million tons
• Exports fall 10.52% m/m to 1.26 million tons
• Output drops 4.48% m/m to 1.69 million tons

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks jumped to their highest in 18 months in June, as an unexpected drop in exports outweighed the slump in production and a spike in domestic consumption, data from the industry regulator showed on Thursday.

The rise in inventories in the world’s second-biggest producer of tropical oil could weigh benchmark Malaysian futures, which were trading near their highest in nearly three months.

Palm oil inventories at the end of June rose 2.41% month-on-month, the fourth consecutive monthly increase, to 2.03 million metric tons, the highest since December 2023, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed.

Palm oil exports plunged 10.52% to 1.26 million tons, while crude palm oil production fell for the first time in four months in June, dropping 4.48% from May to 1.69 million tons, MPOB said.

Domestic palm oil consumption last month jumped 44% from May to 455,150.

A Reuters survey had forecast June inventories at 1.99 million tons, with output seen at 1.7 million tons and exports at 1.45 million tons.

The MPOB report is slightly bearish for palm oil, as the market wasn’t expecting a big drop in exports, which lifted stock levels above 2 million tons, said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group.

A few cargoes loaded in June might actually get dispatched in July because of port congestion in India and as Malaysia has lowered the export duty for July shipments, said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house.

Malaysia has lowered its July crude palm oil reference price, a change that brought down the export duty to 8.5% from 9.5% in June.

“We could see a jump in July exports due to the roll-over of cargoes from June. Besides, some exporters might advance August shipments to July because of the lower export duty,” the dealer said.

Malaysia’s palm oil exports in the first ten days of July rose 12% compared to the first ten days of June, independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia said on Thursday.

 

China’s wheat output holds steady despite drought-hit harvest

• China’s wheat output in the summer harvest dropped 0.1%
• Imports expected to stay low despite decline

China’s wheat output in the summer harvest of 2025 edged down 0.1% from a year earlier, official data showed on Thursday, as severe drought hit key growing regions including Henan province, the country’s granary.

The world’s top wheat producer recorded total output of 138.16 million metric tons, slightly down from 138.22 million tons in the previous year’s harvest. That includes winter wheat and spring wheat sown in early spring.

Production of winter wheat, sown in the autumn of last year and harvested in early summer, fell by 45,000 tons to 135.45 million tons, accounting for 98% of the total wheat output.

Total wheat planting acreage dropped 0.1% year-on-year to 23.07 million hectares (57 million acres), according to the National Bureau of Statistics data.

“This year, severe droughts have occurred in major grain-producing areas such as Henan and Shaanxi, adversely affecting summer grain production,” the NBS said in a separate statement.

These two provinces, which account for over a quarter of China’s total wheat output, were hit hard by hot, dry weather in May. In late May, some farmers in Shaanxi and Henan told Reuters their production was slashed by as much as half.

The NBS said timely irrigation efforts and fewer other natural disasters helped to keep overall output stable.

Even with the small decline in output, China’s wheat imports are expected to remain roughly in line with 2024 levels, analysts said.

“China’s imports will be limited if the output drop is going to be 0.1%. it will be similar to last year,” said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at IKON Commodities in Sydney.

Rosa Wang, an analyst at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI, added that ample domestic stocks should also curb imports.

Imports this year have dropped even further after declining in 2024. China was the world’s top wheat importer in 2022 and 2023.

In the first five months of 2025, wheat imports plunged 80% year-on-year. The slump in demand has left Australia, one of its major supplies, with excess wheat.

China’s total grain production for the summer also slipped 0.1% from a year ago to 149.74 million metric tons, while grain planting acreage for the year dropped 0.1% at 26.58 million hectares, the NBS said.

China’s total grain output in the summer harvest includes other cereals such as barley, oats and buckwheat, as well legumes and tuber crops.

 

Stavropol boosts Russian wheat hopes despite Rostov drought

• Crop in top region Rostov expected to fall by 20%
• Stavropol could become Russia’s top wheat-producing region
• Farmers facing drought as well as cost challenges

Two of Russia’s top wheat-growing regions are having very different years as Rostov endures a second year of drought while good weather in Stavropol promises record output.

That should keep supply from the world’s largest exporter steady and could see Stavropol dethrone Rostov as its biggest wheat-growing region, according to forecasts.

In Rostov, where the harvesting campaign will start this month, Governor Yuri Slyusar has warned that this year’s crop could fall by 20% from last year’s 10.1 million tons, to its lowest level since 2015.

He has declared a state of agricultural emergency in 10 districts, a move that facilitates state aid payments to farmers.

Although frosts this spring were milder, drought is now seen as the main risk. Short rains in May did not help to retain moisture in the soil.

“It’s another bad year for us. The seedlings have been affected by drought since last autumn. The wheat is weak. This year, it suffered from frost, and now the drought is finishing it off,” said Maxim Zolotaryov, an agronomist at Luch farm in Rostov’s Chertkov district.

Chertkov has been hit hardest by bad weather in 2024 and 2025. Yields last year fell by 61% to 1.7 metric tons per hectare compared to about 3.4 tons in the United States.

Zolotaryov pointed to green plants in dry land and said that normally at this time of the year the stems are higher.

He said some farmers have experimented with other crops but ultimately decided to stick to wheat given its guaranteed export demand.

 

Hot weather conditions threaten China corn production, but adequate rainfall and soil moisture reduce the risk

2025/26 CHINA CORN PRODUCTION: 299. 3[291.9–304.5] MILLION TONS, Down FRACTIONALY FROM LAST UPDATE

Over the past three weeks, Northeast China has experienced prolonged hot weather that has recently spread southward to the North China Plain. Temperatures in Heilongjiang soared up to 7°C above normal by late June. Although moderate rainfall and adequate soil moisture have supported healthy corn growth thus far, sustained high temperatures still pose a risk to crop yields. The hot weather is expected to persist through the end of this week, after which cooler and wetter conditions should return to the Northeast. In contrast, the North China Plain is expected to remain hot and dry for another two weeks, increasing the threat to summer corn production.

 

U.S. wheat production slightly down as spring crop conditions deteriorate

2025/26 U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION: 53.1 [51.4–55.3] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Deteriorating crop conditions amid poor soil moisture across the spring wheat belt fractionally lower 2025/26 U.S. total wheat production to 53.1 [51.4–55.3] million tons, despite overall healthy winter crop conditions and decent harvest progress so far. In its June WASDE report (released on 12 June), the USDA pegged 2025/26 U.S. wheat production at 52.3 million tons, below our current projection. Our current median estimate puts national-level winter wheat yield at 53.2 bushels per acre (bpa), 2.9% above last season and also above trend yield. This leads to total winter wheat production of 38.1 [37.2–39.4] million tons, virtually unchanged from previous update. Production of total spring wheat is estimated at 15.0 [14.2–15.9] million tons (with durum and other spring wheat at 2.1 and 12.9 million tons, respectively), down 3.1% from last update.

USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (released on 07 July) continues to indicate overall healthier than expected winter crop conditions, with now 48% of the crop in the good or excellent (GEX) category at the national level (vs. 51% last year). This should be viewed as impressive considering all the potential winterkill events and soil moisture deficits that have highlighted the crop’s dormancy period during the winter. Winter wheat harvest is 53% complete so far, well behind last year’s 62% but in line with the five-year average of 54%. It picked up greatly over the past week (a 16% jump), and should continue to remain in full swing amid moderate weather through next week. On the other hand, spring wheat crops are moving through its prime growth period amid poor conditions, raising concerns. Spring wheat national-level ratings declined for the third consecutive week this week, now with only 50% of the crop in the GEX category, a whopping 25% below the same time last year. Montana’s crop conditions are the most concerning, with only 2% of the crop in the GEX category (vs. 65% last year), and soil moisture levels there currently remain hovering around near 7-year lows, warranting attention.

 

Canada wheat yield outlook remains steady despite recent dryness

2025/26 CANADA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 35.0 [33.9–36.8] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Canada wheat production is unchanged from our previous estimate of 35.0 [33.9-36.8] million tons despite recent dryness across key growing regions. Over the past two weeks, weather conditions over the southern Canadian prairies were drier than normal, experiencing deficits of up to ~24 mm. However, LSEG’s latest weather forecast indicates that adequate rainfall (near normal to above normal levels) will arrive over the key-producing wheat regions throughout the next 10 days. If verified, this moisture will help alleviate crop stress due to dryness and maintain yield potential.

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.