Global Ag News For Aug 6.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Latvia Declares State of Emergency in Agriculture Sector

Latvia’s government declares a state of emergency in the agriculture sector after heavy rains and floods damaged farmers’ crops, it says in a statement.

• “The situation is extremely complex – either there will be no harvest at all, or it will be of such low quality that it will only be used for animal feed, not food,” Latvian Minister of Agriculture Armands Krauze says in the statement.
• The state of emergency means affected farmers will be able to seek leniency from the state revenue service and from the financial sector for loans and taxes through Nov. 4

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/4 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans up 1 3/4; Soymeal down $0.90; Soyoil up 0.46.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 9 3/4 in SRW, down 15 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 10 1/4; Soybeans up 3 1/4; Soymeal up $3.40; Soyoil down 0.03.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 16 1/4 in SRW, down 22 1/2 in HRW, down 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 13 1/4; Soybeans up 3 1/4; Soymeal up $8.00; Soyoil down 0.86.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.1% in SRW, down 9.9% in HRW, down 4.0% in HRS; Corn is down 17.2%; Soybeans down 2.9%; Soymeal down 11.1%; Soyoil up 35.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans down 3 yuan; Soymeal down 3; Soyoil up 66; Palm oil up 34; Corn down 4 — Malaysian Palm is down 23.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 23 ringgit (-0.54%) at 4267.

There were changes in registrations (12 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 761 Soybeans; 697 Soyoil; 1,735 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 5 were: SRW Wheat up 2,076 contracts, HRW Wheat up 6,867, Corn up 24,510, Soybeans up 4,577, Soymeal up 1,570, Soyoil down 3,535.

 

FAVORABLE RAINFALL EXPANSION ACROSS CROP AREAS OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

What to Watch:

• A progressive rainfall pattern is expected across wheat-growing regions in Canada
• Transition to warmer weather ahead for the U.S Midwest, without significant heatwave risk
• Heavy rainfall in the western Midwest next week may lead to localized flooding

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated showers north through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal north and near to above normal south Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Midwest West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Midwest East: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

 

The player sheet for 8/5 had funds: net sellers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 7,000 corn, sellers of 4,500 soybeans, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales totaling 128,000 metric tons of U.S. corn for shipment to undisclosed destinations in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• WHEAT SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat to be sourced from the United States in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender.
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn.
• WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in Thailand has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 45,200 metric tons of rice to be sourced from Vietnam and Thailand.

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Aug. 1 are based on four analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.082m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 24.646m bbl vs 24.716m a week ago

 

Brazil 2024/25 Soy Sales 78.4% Done as of Aug. 5: Safras

Figure compares with 82.2% of the projected harvest sold a year earlier, consulting firm Safras & Mercado says in an emailed report.

• Soy sales were at 69.8% in July report
  • Five-year average is 85.7%, according to Safras
  • Brazil’s 2024/2025 soy crop is projected to reach 171.93m tons
• 2025/26 soy sales were at 16.8% compared to 22.5% a year earlier
  • Five year average is 26.8%
  • July report showed sales of 16.4% of the crop

 

Brazil’s 2025/26 Soy Sales Reach 16.8% Of Expected Output – Safras & Mercado

• BRAZIL’S 2024/25 SOY SALES REACH 78.4% OF EXPECTED OUTPUT VERSUS 82.2% A YEAR AGO – SAFRAS & MERCADO
• BRAZIL’S 2025/26 SOY SALES REACH 16.8% OF EXPECTED OUTPUT VERSUS 22.5% A YEAR AGO – SAFRAS & MERCADO

 

Ukraine reopens its Danube canal after explosion, analyst says

Ukraine’s Seaport Authority will from Wednesday reopen the Bystre Canal at the mouth of the Danube, closed since a dredger exploded in late July, analyst ASAP Agri said on Tuesday.

Ukraine had been transporting grain on the Bystre and the Danube as an alternative route for its exports while access to its Black Sea ports was limited in the first year after Russia’s invasion in 2022. Since the ports were unblocked in 2023, Ukraine’s use of the Danube has declined sharply.

The consultancy said in a statement that Ukraine would allow vessels with a draught of up to 4.5 metres to transit the canal.

“The move is expected to reduce disbursement costs for shipowners and support negotiations on Danube-origin freight by narrowing the bid/offer spread,” said Pavel Lysenko, analyst at ASAP Agri.

The Seaport Authority declined to comment.

It said last month it had closed the Bystre after a dredger exploded on 23 July, without giving any explanation for the blast. Traffic was diverted through the Romanian Sulina channel.

ASAP Agri said the cost to shipowners of using Sulina was higher and many had raised their freight quotes for Danube shipments to offset losses.

“With Bystre back in service, market participants expect a partial recovery in Danube freight flows as negotiations become more balanced,” it said.

 

Brazil’s Grupo Potencial to invest $392 million in corn ethanol plant in Parana state

Brazil’s Grupo Potencial will invest 2 billion reais ($392.9 million) to build a corn ethanol plant in Lapa, Parana state, as part of a plan to develop the world’s largest biofuels complex, Vice President Carlos Eduardo Hammerschmidt said.

The group is already in advanced stages of constructing a soybean crushing facility at the site, which is expected to be completed in the first half of 2026.

The plant will supply raw material to Potencial’s expanding biodiesel factory, Hammerschmidt said in an interview with Reuters on Monday, while future plans include building a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) facility.

“Our goal is to build the largest biofuels complex in the world,” said Hammerschmidt, a co-owner of the family-run company.

The corn ethanol plant will require 1.2 million metric tons of corn each year, equivalent to 6% of Parana’s output. The state, Brazil’s second-largest corn producer, is forecast to harvest a record 20 million tons in the 2024/25 season.

Construction of the ethanol plant is scheduled to begin in 2026, using the company’s own funds, and may be completed by late 2027, Hammerschmidt said.

Corn ethanol production in Brazil’s center-south region is expected to grow more than 30% in 2024/25, driven by rising fuel demand and a new rule, effective since the start of August, which mandates that gasoline must include 30% anhydrous ethanol.

Once the biodiesel plant expansion is completed by the end of 2026, Potencial will boost its annual production capacity from 900 million liters to 1.62 billion liters, Hammerschmidt added.

The soybean crusher in Lapa will be able to process 1.2 million tons per year, he said.

The ethanol plant investment is part of a broader strategy that includes building two pipelines — one for ethanol and one for biodiesel — connecting the nearby city of Araucaria to the Lapa complex, with potential to serve other cities.

The company expects to invest 200 million reais in the pipelines, Hammerschmidt said.

“We’ll deliver both biodiesel and ethanol directly to fuel distribution hubs,” Hammerschmidt said, noting the complex’s proximity to an oil refinery in Parana owned by state energy giant, Petrobras

 

Weak demand limits Brazil’s corn exports despite a bumper crop; higher US production prospect keeps prices down

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

US CBOT corn future fell 24% from 5.05 USc/bu in February to 4.07 USc/bu in August, driven by Brazil’s large 2nd crop corn and favorable weather boosting US harvest expectations. Regarding exports, a weak US dollar and ample supply have supported US sales, while Brazil’s exports have been slower than last season due to weak Chinese demand and harvest delays.

In the US, corn net sales (340,924 mt), weekly exports (1.489 million mt), and outstanding sales (8.790 million mt) for 2024/25 for the week ending at July 24th are the highest levels compared to the same period of the past 5 years. Accumulated exports from September to July reached 61.66 million mt, according to the USDA/FAS, representing a 28% increase over the previous year. The higher sales have raised 2024/25 US corn exports (Sept/Aug) to 70.06 million mt, which is 11.8 million mt more than the prior season. For the 2025/26 marketing year, the total US corn supply is expected to increase by about 9 million mt. Additionally, new trade agreements between the US and its trading partners may impact US exports, including agricultural products. Based on current information, 2025/26 US corn exports are projected at 71.79 million mt.

In contrast, Brazil’s corn exports lagged last year’s pace, with 5.07 million mt shipped since March versus 6.27 million mt a year ago. July exports dropped 11% year-on-year to 3.99 million mt. China was the largest importer of Brazilian corn in 2022/23 (Mar 23-Feb 24), accounting for 29% of total Brazilian exports. In 2023/24 (Mar 24-Feb 25), China’s purchases declined by 90%. This year, China is projected to harvest a record corn crop in the autumn and has not shown strong interest in purchasing Brazilian corn yet. Given weak Chinese demand and competition from US corn, 2024/25 Brazil corn exports have been reduced to 38.0 million mt with 2025/26 exports estimated at 40 million mt.

In July, Ukraine’s corn exports fell 52% to 643, 000 mt due to low stocks. Total exports from October to July reached 19.56 million mt, down from 28.28 million mt last year. Exports will likely stay slow until the new crop corn arrives in October. As such, we have reduced 2024/25 Ukraine corn exports to 20.5 million mt, with 2025/26 exports projected at 22.81 million mt.

Argentina’s exports have remained at relatively high levels. Total exports since March are slightly below last year, with 3.58 million mt shipped in July. 2024/25 Argentine corn exports are maintained at 34.73 million mt, a decrease of 1.5 million mt compared to the previous season due to lower production. 2025/26 exports are projected at 36.5 million mt, assuming average growing season weather and normal production output next year.

 

Satellite imagery data indicates higher Russian wheat production

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 84.0 [82.4-88.3] MILLION TONS, UP 1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent weather and elevated yields in Volga and Central Districts, increase 2025/26 Russian wheat production to 84.0 [82.4-88.3] million tons (MMT). Our estimate consists of 57.83 MMT of winter wheat and 26.25 MMT of spring wheat and does not include the occupied Ukrainian Oblasts.

Over the past two weeks, the Southern, Volga, and Central districts experienced warmer temperatures, while cooler conditions prevailed in the Ural and Siberia Districts. Above average precipitation (10-25 mm above normal) occurred in Central and Ural Districts, increasing soil moisture levels. Vegetation density index (NDVI) values in key spring wheat regions exceeded the long-term median, indicating good crop conditions and increasing the national yield estimate to 3.00 t/ha.

According to the latest weather forecasts, cooler temperatures and sporadic rain should occur over the Southern and North-Caucasian Districts, offering relief to drought-affected areas. Normal rainfall should occur across the spring wheat regions, benefiting spring wheat development.

 

Bunge Sells Another Argentine Soybean Meal Cargo to China

Crop trader Bunge Global SA has sold another cargo of Argentine soybean meal to China as the Asian nation seeks to diversify supplies of the key animal feed ingredient due to a trade war with the US, according to people familiar with the matter.

The sale comes after Bunge recently chartered the first shipment to China. The newly sold cargo is expected to be shipped in September, said the people, who asked not to be named because the deal is private.

A spokesperson for Bunge didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment.

China has traditionally imported soybeans mainly from the US and Brazil to process them into animal feed and cooking oil at home. But Beijing opened its doors to Argentine meal in 2019, during President Donald Trump’s first trade war with the world’s largest commodities buyer.

The new sale from Argentina also comes after President Javier Milei reduced export tariffs, making crops from the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal more competitive.

“China is very public that they’re focused on food security, so I think it’s absolutely logical and rational that they continue to build different optionality,” Bunge Chief Executive Officer Greg Heckman said in an earnings call last week. Importing soybean meal from Argentina “is a new option that they’re now developing,” he said.

Bunge loaded Argentina’s first meal shipment to China last month. The vessel is currently en route off the coast of South Africa.

 

US Agriculture Sentiment Weakens in July: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index fell to 135 points in July from 146 in June, according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• Current conditions component declined by 17 points from June
• Future expectations down by 7 points
• “US farmers’ sentiment declined in July as weaker farm income prospects dimmed producers’ view of current conditions and their future expectations” according to the report’s authors James Mintert and Michael Langemeier

 

China, World’s Top Beef Buyer, Extends Import Probe to November

China will extend a probe into beef imports, which was originally slated to be completed this month, until late November.

The extension was announced on Wednesday by the Ministry of Commerce. China is the world’s top buyer of the meat, which means its imports are tracked closely by the golbal market.

The country’s overseas purchases have climbed in recent years, alongside rising domestic production as the government urged farmers to raise more cattle at home. That’s strained the local industry as a slowing economy now pushes consumers to cut back, leaving supplies piling up in freezers. Wholesale beef prices fell to the lowest since 2019 earlier this year.

Shares of major meatpackers including JBS SA and Marfrig Global Foods SA had dropped when the probe began late last year, with Beijing signaling at the time it was likely to be completed within eight months. Brazil, Australia and Argentina rank among the countries that supply beef to China.

 

 

 

 

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