Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.02 lower as a late day recovery prevented Dec-25 from closing below $4.00 bu. Early trade saw prices slip to fresh contract lows for a 3rd consecutive session. Spreads weakened ahead of tomorrow’s start of the Goldman roll. Sadly not much support for spot Sept-25 until $3.60, the low from Aug-24 on the weekly chart. Speculative selling has likely pushed the MM short position back out to around 185k contracts, even larger with today’s activity. Open interest surged nearly 24k contracts yesterday as farmers were also likely sellers as they clear bin space ahead of this year’s record harvest. Most yield est. are coming in above 185 bpa and production above 16 bil. vs. the USDA est. in July at 15.705 bil. Ethanol production slipped to 1,081 tbd, or 318 mil. gallons, down from 322 mil. the previous week, however up 1% YOY. Recent monthly census data has showed less corn being used in the production process as some facilities have switched to using sorghum as their main feedstock. There was 108 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process last week, or 15.4 mil. bu. per day, below the 16.1 needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.50 bil. If LW’s pace held over the last 4 weeks of the MY, corn usage would reach 5.480 bil. bu. YTD sales at 2.356 bil. require exports of 394 mil. combined for July/Aug vs. 410 mil. YA.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly lower today with beans down $.05-$.07, meal was off $4-$5 while bean oil was mixed. Spreads also eased. Sept-25 beans slipped to a fresh 8 month low with support at the CL of $9.55 ¼. A 4 month low for Nov-25 with support at the April low of $9.71 ¼. Bean oil is trying to recover after 5 straight lower closes. Sept-25 meal rejected trade over $280 ton. Prior to today, speculative traders had been net buyers 4 sessions in a row as they pare back what was a record short position. Spot board crush margins slipped $.02 to $2.23 bu. however bean oil PV jumped back up to 50%. Private forecasts for soybean yields are coming in near 53.5 bpa, above the already record USDA est. of 52.5 bpa. Chinese crusher reportedly sold 2 mmt of soybean meal to local feed mills earlier this week, perhaps an indication their bean imports from the US will continue to be delayed. Safras & Mercado est. Brazilian farmers have sold 78% of their 2024/25 soybean crop, below the historical average of 82%. They also suggest farmers have sold 17% of their expected 25/26 production, also below the historical average of 22.5%. Yesterday’s census exports from June at 55 mil. bu. were slightly above the inspection data. Cumulative exports Sept thru June at 1.738 bil. would require sales in July/Aug reach 127 mil. bu., up from 118 mil. YA and vs. the 5-year Ave. of 150 mil. Brazil’s Ag. Ministry reported their soybean exports in July at 12.26 mmt, up 9% from YA at 11.25 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from up $.01 in CGO to up $.07 in KC. New CL for Sept-25 CGO for a 5th consecutive session however prices held above the Spring low of $4.99. Trade into new CL’s for spot KC was quickly rejected as prices didn’t seriously threaten the $5 level. After not making a new CL in Sept-25 MIAX yesterday for the first time in nearly 2 weeks, it’s back at it today having made new lows in overnight trade. US demand is holding stout with US SRW FOB values the worlds cheapest. Taiwan importers rejected all offers making no purchase in their recent 60k mt tender citing prices were too high. Census exports in June at 64 mil. bu. were up 16% YOY and the highest for the month in 4 years.
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