Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. USD is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. USDA report August 12. What if? What if USDA increases US corn and soybean crop? What if USDA increase US 2025/26 corn and soybean carryout and lowers wheat? Can OPEC Crude oil production ease potential India shift away from buying Russia? Gold is up on increase tariffs, China buying. Reports suggest Trump will soon meet with Putin.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 9..85. Soymeal is gaining on soyoil. Dalian soybean, soyoil and palmoil were higher. There were 322 soymeal deliveries, 60 soybean deliveries and 61 soyoil. Weekly US old crop soybean export sales are est at 100-300 mt vs 349 last week and 200-500 mt new crop vs 429 last week. Trade est US 2025 soybean crop at 4,365 mil bu vs USDA July est of 4,335, US 2025/26 soybean carryout at 439 mil bu vs USDA July 310.
CORN
CZ is higher and near 4.03 on pre US weekly export sales and USDA report short covering. Dalian corn futures were lower. Weekly US old crop corn export sales are est at 200-400 mt vs 340 last week and 1.300-2,500 mt new crop vs 1,891 last week. USDA report August 12. Trade est US 2025 corn crop at 15,979 mil bu vs USDA July est of 15,705, US 2025/26 corn carryout at 1,902 mil bu vs USDA July 1,660. Weekly US ethanol production was up 1.3 pct vs last year. Stocks were down 3.9 pct vs last week but unchanged vs last year. Some could see USDA dropping annual corn used for ethanol 25 mil bu.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.33. KWZ is near 5.37. MWZ is near 5.94. Wheat is higher on short covering before USDA report and talk of lower Black Sea export supplies. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 350-600 mt vs 592 last week. USDA report August 12. Trade est US 2025 wheat crop at 1,920 mil bu vs USDA July est of 1,929, US 2025/26 wheat carryout at 882 mil bu vs USDA July 890.
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