Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are mixed. USD is unch. Crude is higher. Trump will meet Putin on Friday in Alaska with low expectations. New Russian sanctions possible without a deal. US farmer loss $8 billion in corn revenue after USDA report but did get $2 billion from higher soybean prices.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.39. Dalian soybean, soymeal are near recent highs. Most of US Midwest will be dry and warm over next 10 days. Brazil soybean lower on increase farmer selling. Trade est weekly US 25/26 export sales 400-900 mt vs 545 last week. Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour next week. States of OH,IN,IL,MN,IA,SD,NE surveyed. Scouts will mark 3 foot plot counting number of plants. 3 plants pulled and number of pods counted. Average pod count is multiplied by 36 them divided by row width. Since 2003, Tour yield has been below USDA Sep and final yield 70 pct of time.
CORN
CZ is near 3.94. CZ resistance now 4.00. Large US crop could drop CZ to 3.40. Dalian corn was lower and near contract low weekly close. Most of US Midwest will be dry and warm over next 10 days. Brazil domestic demand out bidding export for corn. Trade est weekly US 25/26 export sales 400-2,400 mt vs 3,163 last week. S Korea bought US corn at lowest price since 2023. Weekly US ethanol production was up 2 pct vs ly, stocks were down 3 pct vs ly. Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour next week. States of OH,IN,IL,MN,IA,SD,NE surveyed. Scouts will mark 2 30 inch rows and 3 specific plants number 5,8 and 11. Length of ear counted (aborted kernels not counted). Girth measured. Kernels counted. Multiply ear population by cob length by number of kernels divided by row width. Since 2003, Tour yield has been below USDA Sep and final yield 57 pct of time.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.25. KWZ is near 5.24. MWZ is near 5.96. US prices near lower end of projected range. Trade est US weekly export sales near 400-850 mt vs 737 last week. France prices have dropped enough to see increase country buying especially Egypt. Ukraine offering wheat. Singapore, Egypt and Algeria vessels are at ports for loading. Argentina futures are at new lows. Australia wheat futures are also trading lower.
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