Written Commentary
CORN
CZ is near 4.09. One estimate of lower US 2025 corn yield and good US exports have supported CZ. CZ is unable to trade over 4.16 resistance. Support is 4.05. US Midwest weather is mostly dry but cool. Harvest is into KY where corn yields are reported at record high. USDA rated the US crop 71 pct G/E unch from last week but up vs 65 ly. One analyst est US corn yield near 187.1. Another remains near 184.0 but concedes that final yield could be between 184.0 and 188.0. Same analyst is est Brazil corn crop at 140 mmt. CU open interest is down 38,000 contract but open interest remains near 128,000 which is high going into first notice. One group est US 24/25 corn carryout at 1,420 due to lower residual and 25/26 at 2,485 due to lower exports.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.49. SX has lost most of the overnight gains. Gains linked to news that a China trade representative was coming to Washington. Most is Washington said he was not meeting with key US trade officials. SX support is 10.25. Soyoil is losing to soymeal. There is concern over no reallocation of SRE’S. Some est that China will need to buy 18-19 mmt for November to January before Brazil next harvest. USDA rated US crop 69 pct G/E and some this suggest a yield closer to 54 bpa. One group est US 24/25 soybean carryout at 367 due to lower residual and 25/26 at 398 due to lower export.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.31. KWZ is near 5.17. MWZ is near 5.92. Matif wheat futures were lower on new EU wheat crop could be near 141.0 mmt vs USDA 138.2. Also World wheat trade could be 8-10 mmt below USDA estimate, This could add to exporters end stocks. There is concern about quality of the EU and Black Sea wheat crops. Australia and Argentina futures were lower on a mostly favorable start to 2026 wheat crops. WZ remains in a 5.20-5.40 range. Some estimate the futures range could be eventually between 5.00 and 5.50. USDA estimated US spring wheat crop 49 pct G/E vs 69 last year. 53 pct of crop is harvested.
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