Written Commentary
CORN
Disappointing trade action for market bulls with prices closing $.03-$.05 lower for the day and down $.25 for the week. Despite the flat price weakness, spreads were steady to higher. IMO prices are discounting yield 3-4 bpa above the current USDA est. of 181 bpa and the likelihood of higher Brazilian production cutting into US 25/26 exports in future reports. Time will tell. US 24/25 stocks were down 25 mil. bu. to 1.340 bil. with exports up 100 mil. and feed usage down 75 mil. 2025 production at 15.705 bil. was down 115 mil. on lower acres and in line with expectations. The 2025 yield was left unchanged at record 181 bpa. New crop usage was cut 50 mil. bu. on lower feed demand, exports left unchanged at 2.675 bil., something that will have to prove itself over time. 2025/26 ending stocks down 90 mil. to 1.660 bil., 60 mil. below expectations. Brazil’s 24/25 production was raised 2 mmt to 132 mmt, at the low end of expectations and well below private est. as high as 150 mmt. 2025/26 global stocks at 272 mmt, down 3.2 mmt, well below expectations.
SOYBEANS
Prices closed mixed with beans $.06-$.08 lower, meal was down $1-$2 while oil was up 25 points. Beans spreads were steady to weaker while product spreads firmed. Agricultural markets remain laser focused on favorable US weather and the likelihood for higher production in future reports. Aug-25 beans notched it first trade below $10 in 3 months before bouncing into the close. Next support for Aug. is the April low at $9.82 ¼, support for Nov-25 is at $9.71. Bean oil PV likely to challenge its modern day high just below 51%. Spot board crush margins jumped $.09 to $1.82 bu., the highest in 9 months, while bean oil PV improved to 49.9%. New crop crush margins improved $.05 to $2.07 bu. 2024/25 bean ending stocks were unchanged at 350 mil. bu. slightly below expectations. 2025 production 4.335 bil., was down 5 mil. on lower harvested acres. On the demand side there was a 15 mil. bu. shift out of residual into exports. 2025 yields were left unchanged at record 52.5 bpa. New crop usage cut 20 mil. bu., crush increased 50 mil., exports cut 70 mil. 2025/26 ending stocks up 15 mil. to 310 bil., slightly above expectations. Bean oil usage for biofuel production cut 650 mil. lbs. for 24/25 MY, up 1.6 bil. lbs. 25/26 MY. Bean oil exports for 25/26 MY slashed 1 bil. lbs. to 700 mil. lbs. With the increased crush comes higher meal production. New crop 25/26 exports were raised 4% to 18.7k tons with domestic usage up 450k tons to 41.775k tons. The Ave. price to stimulate the higher demand was cut from $310 ton to $290. Chinese imports for 24/25 were cut another 1.5 mmt to 106.5 mmt. New crop soybeans remain well below YA levels despite stocks considerably tighter than last year’s forecast in July. Markets appear to be discounting higher production and stocks, perhaps still nervous over lack of a trade deal with China.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.10 lower in CGO and KC to $.18 lower in MGEX. Spreads were little changed. MGEX futures traded to a 2 month low on much higher than expected spring wheat production. All US wheat production at 1.929 bil. up 8 mil. and 15 mil. above expectations. WW production at 1.345 bil. was down 37 mil., 17 mil. below expectations. HRW was down 28 mil. to 755 mil. SRW down 8 to 337 mil. Spring wheat production at 504 mil. down 38 mil. from YA, 30 mil. above expectations. 2025/26 ending stocks at 890 mil. bu. were slightly below expectations as exports were raised 25 mil. bu. to 850 mil. which if realized would be a 5 year high. 2025/26 global stocks were down 1.2 mmt to 261.5 mmt, 1.5 below expectations. Production was cut 1 mmt in both Canada and Ukraine. Up .7 mmt in EU and .5 mmt in Russia.
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