Written Commentary
CORN
Prices finished $.01-$.02 higher in choppy 2 sided trade. Spreads are steady to weaker with Sept/Dec making a new low at ($.18 ¾) bu. Key overhead resistance for Dec-25 rests at the gap from early last week at $4.30. Ratings held steady at 74% G/E vs. expectations of a slight improvement. Conditions improved in 11 states, declined in 6 while holding steady in 1. Overall ratings remain the highest since 2016. The largest increases were in MO up 7%, ND up 6%, and NC up 4%. Conditions slipped 7% in MI and 3% in KS. 34% of the crop is silking with 7% in the dough stage, in line with recent history. IMO ratings imply a yield in a 184-185 range, above the current USDA est. of 181 bpa. EU corn imports are off the a slow start in the first 2 weeks of the 2025/26 MY, at only 244.2k mt vs. 1.28 mmt YA. Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production last week between 317-323 mil. gallons, down from 319 mil. LW. Ethanol stocks are expected to range from 23.6 – 24.1 thousand barrels. Current crop ratings in Iowa would suggest record yields this year. Long way to go before the crop is in the bin however. Iowa was also looking at record yields in 2020 before devastating storms and high winds toppled many fields in the central and Eastern portion of the state. Then record yields of 202 bpa were forecast in Aug. which ultimately slipped to 177 bpa. Production dropped just over 450 mil. bu. as a result.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed today with beans $.04-$.06 lower led by nearby Aug-25, meal was down $2-$3 while oil was holding 40-45 points higher. Bean and meal spreads weakened while oil was mixed. Inside trade for Nov-25 beans however Aug-25 slipped to a fresh 3 month low. Fresh contract low and 9 year low for spot meal. Aug-25 oil stalled just below LW’s high at 55.20. Spot board crush margins jumped another $.05 to $1.89 bu. with bean oil PV closing right at its modern day high of 50.7%. New crop margins were up $.06 to $2.13. US weather remain non-threatening thru the end of July. An early rebound in the soy complex was likely driven by comments from US Treasury Sec. Bessent who told Bloomberg News that trade talks with China are “in a very good place.” In addition Pres. Trump announced on social media his administration completed a trade deal with Indonesia. NOPA crush at 185.7 mil. bu. would suggest census crush at roughly 196.5 mil. bu. If realized would bring census crush thru the first 10 months of the 24/25 MY to 2.041 bil. bu. To reach the USDA est. of 2.420 bil. crush in July/Aug will need to reach 379 mil. bu. vs. 377 mil. YA. Bean oil stocks at 1.366 bil. lbs. were just below the 1.373 bil. at the end of May-25 and down nearly 16% from YA. Soybean ratings jumped 4% to 70% G/E, better than the 1% increase which was expected. Overall ratings improved in only 8 states, declined in 9 while holding steady in 1. Ratings are now the highest since 2016. Biggest increases were in MO up 7%, IL and ND up 6% and LA up 5%. Largest decreases was in KS down 4%. 47% of the crop is blooming while 15% of the crop is setting pods, all in line with the historical average.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from steady in KC to $.02-$.04 lower in CGO and MGEX. Sept-25 CGO held above the June low at $5.34 ¾. Sept-25 MGEX slipped to a 2 month low. Winter wheat harvest advanced 10% to 63%, just below the 5-year Ave. of 64% and YA pace of 70%. Final winter crop ratings and the USDA data on heads per square foot suggest WW yields at 53.15 bpa and production at 1.320 bil. bu. just below the Fri. USDA forecast of 54.2 bpa and production at 1.345 bil. Spring wheat conditions jumped 4% to 54% G/E, vs. expectations of slightly higher. Overall ratings remain below YA however just above the 5-year Ave. Jordan reportedly passed on all offers for their 120k mt tender. IKAR lowered their Russian production forecast .5 mmt to 84 mmt, very near the USDA est. of 83.5 mmt. They also lowered their export forecast .5 mmt to 42 mmt, vs. the USDA at 46 mmt. France’s Farm Ministry is forecasting their 2025 soft wheat production at 32.6 mmt, 27% above YA. Wire services at midday are reporting Algeria has bought nearly 1.0 mmt of optional origin milling wheat mostly from Black Sea sources. Prices paid ranging from $253-$257/mt CF.
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