Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.02 higher in choppy 2 sided trade. Early speculative selling appeared to dry up enabling prices to recover. New contract lows were established for most contracts. Spreads were little changed. US weather remains non-threatening into late July driving yield expectations above the already record levels forecast by the USDA. EIA data showed ethanol production rebounded to 319 mil. gallons, up from 316 mil. the previous week, and up 3% YOY. Production was above expectations and above the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage est. for a 6th consecutive week. There was 108 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 15.47 mil. bu. per day, above the 15.06 needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.50 bil. Ethanol stocks slipped to 24.0 mil. barrels, in line with expectations and just above the 23.6 mb YA. Implied gasoline usage rose 6% LW to 9.159 tbd, however was still down 2.5% YOY. Ukraine’s Grain Union is forecasting total grain production of 83.1 mmt in 2025, of that corn production is expected to reach 29.3 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 30.5 mmt.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex with many contracts making new lows near the close. Beans were down $.09-$.12, meal was $1 lower while oil was down 70-80 points. Bean and oil spreads softened meal spreads were mixed. Both old and new crop bean futures slipped to fresh 3 month lows. Support for Aug-25 rests at $9.82 ¾, and $9.71 for Nov-25. The US soybean balance sheet has far less wiggle room if US yields do not reached the current USDA est. New contracts lows in Aug-25 meal for a 2nd consecutive session. Aug-25 oil has pulled back to about the midpoint of its 4 week range. Markets braced for more tariff news today however little came. So far about the only new news was Trump warning of a much higher tariffs on Brazilian imports as of “they have not been good to us”. Still awaiting clarity on SRE from the Trump Administrations and its potential impact on bean oil usage for biofuel production. Spot board crush margins (Aug-25) held steady at $1.70 bu. with bean oil PV slipping to 49.7%. New crop margins slipped a penny to $2.01 bu. Ukraine’s Grain Union is forecasting 2025 sunflower seed production at 15.1 mmt, 6.2 mmt of soybeans and rapeseed at 3.0 mmt. Conab is out tomorrow with updated production estimates for Brazil. With SA harvest over I’d expect little change in 24/25 production. Cumulative production for Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay at 228 mmt is up nearly 7% from the previous record last year. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 12-36 mil. bu. for beans, 150k-900k tons of meal and 0-30k tons of oil.
WHEAT
Neither the bulls or bears were able to gain the upper hand in wheat today. Prices were very little changed with all 3 classes experiencing 2 sided trade. KC and MGEX closed with modest gains and CGO with modest losses. Higher trade in Sept-25 CGO was capped at its 50 day MA. A fresh 2 month low in Sept-25 KC however prices held above their contract low from May setting up today’s bounce. The lowest offer for Bangladesh’s wheat tender was just below $269/mt CIF for 50k mt. No purchase yet announced. Ukraine’s Grain Union is forecasting 2025 wheat production at 22.4 mmt, just below the USDA forecast of 23 mmt. After the Trump Administration resumed military aid to Ukraine, Russia blasted Ukraine with several hundred drone attacks. No word on casualties however it evidently didn’t damage Ukraine’s grain infrastructure. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 8-20 mil. bu.
Charts provided by QST.
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