Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were down $.07-$.10 with spot July once again the downside leader. Spreads continue to weaken with July/Dec slipping to a new low at ($.16). New contract low for July-25 with the spot contract slipping to a 7 month low on the weekly chart. For now Dec-25 held support above its contract low at $4.28. Non-threatening US weather continues to weigh on commodity valuations. Spot crude oil was down over $5 per barrel after surging to a 6 month high in overnight trade. As of now the Straits of Hormuz remains open while Iran’s ability to respond to the US/Israeli attacks appears limited. Ukraine’s corn exports for the 24/25 MY as of June 23rd have reached 21.7 mmt, down 25.7% YOY while closing in on the USDA forecast of 22 mmt for the MY that expires at month end. US export inspections slipped to 58 mil. bu. however were in line with expectations and above the 40 mil. bu. needed to reach the USDA forecast of 2.650 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 2.108 bil. up 29% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 16%. Largest takers were Mexico – 13 mil., Japan – 10 mil., and Colombia – 6 mil.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex with beans down $.09-$.14, meal was down $1-$2 while oil has backed 125 points. Oil spreads firmed while bean and meal spreads were mixed. July beans held support above its 50 day MA at $10.54, secondary support rests at $10.50. New contract low for July meal with support at $278.50. Spot board crush margins tumbled $.08 ½ to $1.48 bu. with bean oil PV pulling back to 48.5%. New crop margins dipped $.03 ½ to $1.97 ½ bu. This weekend saw extreme heat blanket much of the WCB with 100+ degree temperatures stretching as far north as SD. Scattered rains did form along the upper periphery of the high pressure ridge, mostly in the N. plains. Some damaging winds were felt in areas of ND. This high pressure ridge is flattening out as it shifts east already bringing cooler temperatures to the N. plains and NW corn belt. Good rains are expected this week in E. NE, Iowa, S. MN eastward into WI, N IL and MI. Temperatures across much of the Central Midwest and ECB will moderate by midweek while still holding at above normal levels for the last week of June. Export inspections were a MY low at 7 mil. bu. They were below expectations and below the 14 mil. needed to reach the USDA forecast of 1.850 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.676 bil. are up 11% from YA vs. USDA forecast of up 9%. Germany and Mexico were the largest takers at just over 2 mil. bu. each.
WHEAT
: Prices were $.11-$.15 lower across the 3 classes in volatile trade. The July-25 contracts for all 3 classes have all traded back to about the midpoint of this month’s range. Ukraine’s exports for the 24/25 MY as of June 23rd have reached 15.6 mmt, down 15% YOY while likely coming in below the USDA forecast of 16.5 mmt. Egypt’s Ag. Minister state they have imported 4.9 mmt of wheat so far this year, down 31% YOY. MARS has raised their EU soft wheat yield forecast to 6.08 mt/HA, up from last month’s forecast of 6.04 mt/HA. Export inspections fell to 9 mil. bu., below expectations and below the 16 mil. needed to reach the USDA forecast of 825 mil. bu. YTD inspections at 31 mil. bu. are down 20% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 1%.
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