Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were steady to down $.04 ½ with new crop leading the way lower. July-25/Dec-25 closed at a 3-week high at a $.13 inverse. Weekend weather was largely as expected. Cool and dry across much of the N. Midwest and Great Lakes region. Heavy rains for the E. Plains and Southern Midwest. Pretty good rains were also noted across central and Western NE which should help ease drought concerns in this region. Export inspections slipped to 55 mil. bu. however were in line with expectations and above the 46 mil. bu. needed to reach the USDA forecast of 2.60 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.850 bil. are up 29% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 13%. Largest takers were Japan – 15 mil., Mexico – 11 mil. and Colombia with 7 mil. Datagro raised their Brazilian production forecast 1 mmt to 132.7 mmt, well above the USDA forecast of 130 mmt. Brazil’s 2nd crop harvest is underway with AgRural reporting progress in Mato Grosso and Parana having reached 1%. EU 24/25 corn imports as of May 25th at 17.9 mmt are up 7% YOY. Money managers were net sellers of just over 18k contracts of corn LW extending their short position to just over 103k contracts. Despite strong export demand, it will be difficult to generate much upside momentum with US weather largely non-threatening.
SOYBEANS
Prices were slightly higher across the complex today in 2 sided trade. Beans were steady to $.02 higher, meal was effectively unchanged while oil rose 25 points. Spreads were mixed. Inside trade for July beans and oil. Key resistance for July-25 bean is at the May high at $10.82. Nov-25 resistance is at $10.65 ½. Spot board crush margins were little changed at $1.34 ½ bu. with bean oil PV inching up to 45.5%. Temperatures this week will hold at mostly below normal readings across much of the N. Midwest with the heavy precipitation shifting into the Gulf coast and SE region. Liter amounts for the C. Midwest and Northern plains. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm to normal or slightly above normal readings by next weekend. Export inspections at 7 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations and a MY low. They were also below the 14 mil. needed to reach the USDA forecast of 1.850 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.629 bil. are up 11% from YA vs. USDA forecast of up 9%. Mexico and Egypt were the largest takers with 2 mil. each. Datagro also raised their Brazilian soybean production forecast by nearly 1 mmt to 172 mmt, just above the USDA est. of 169 mmt. Dr. Cordonnier lowered his Argentine production forecast 1.5 mmt to 48.5 mmt due to excessive flooding in N. Buenos Aires. MM’s were net sellers across the entire soybean complex. In meal they sold 4,721 contracts extending their short position to a record large 107,466 contracts. They were net sellers of nearly 26k soybeans and just over 10k soybean oil. The market continues to wait for an announcement from the EPA on RVO’s. The biofuel industry remains hopeful this figure will jump to 5.5+ bil. gallons annually well above the current 3.35 bil. gallons. A lot of rumors and a lot of volatility in recent weeks, however still nothing concrete from the Trump Admin. EU bean imports as of May 25th at 12.7 mmt are up 7.6% YOY. Meal imports at 17.3 mmt are up 26%.
WHEAT
Prices were $.10-$.14 lower across all 3 classes today with pressure stemming from upcoming harvest from Northern Hemisphere winter crops. SovEcon reports Russia’s export price for spot wheat ranges from $248-$250 per ton FOB. New crop offers for the 2nd half of July forward are est. by IKAR at $225 mt/FOB, down $2 from the previous week. Weak demand from China for Australian wheat will likely lead to much higher stocks than previously expected. Australia’s shipments of wheat to China Oct-24 thru Mch25 at only 546k mt are well below the 2.9 mmt shipped YA and 4.4 mmt the previous year. Export inspections at 21 mil. bu. were above expectations however below the 26 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 782 mil. are up 16% from YA, in line with the USDA forecast. MM’s were good buyers in CGO wheat with 18k contracts, lite buyers in KC however were net sellers of nearly 7k contracts in MGEX pushing their net short position out to a record large at just over 34k contracts. EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports at 18.8 mmt are down 34% YOY.
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