Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SK is up 14 cents and near 15.37. SMK is near 481.2. BOK is near 61.40. CK is up 2 cents and near 6.79. WK is up 1 cent and near 7.78. KWK is up 3 cents and near 8.99. MWK is up 3 cents and near 9.26. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. Some are hearing CFTC will could release a commit of traders report on March 3.
Early calls were lower after US warned China of offering aid to Russia and fact President Biden made a quick and unexpected visit to Ukraine war zone. This could increase US aid to Ukraine, increase US debt which could push US Dollar higher, force US Central Bank to increase rates which could lower overall commodity demand.
Argentina freeze and a 10 day dry and warm forecast rallied soybean and soymeal prices. One crop scout est Argentina crop at 34 mmt vs USDA 41. They est Brazil at 151 vs USDA 153. Trade estimates that this week USDA could est US 2023/24 carryout at 297 mil bu vs some est of 435.
Dry Argentina forecast helped soymeal prices which offered support to corn. Low US export demand and talk Putin could extend to Ukraine export corridor offers resistance. One crop scout est Argentina crop at 43 mmt vs USDA 47. They est Brazil at 123 vs USDA 125.Trade estimates that this week USDA could est US 2023/24 carryout at 1,761 mil bu vs some est of 2,060.
Wheat futures are also higher. KWK has rallied from 8.00-9.09 on US HRW weather concerns. It may be the wrong time of year to be bearish KWK but normal 2023 north hemisphere crops should eventually be negative. Talk of record US PNW and Midwest 2023 SRW crop offers resistance to WK. Lower US Russia interior and export prices also offer resistance.
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