Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SF is down 5 cents and near 11.52. SMF is near 380.9. BOF is near 37.55. CH21 is down 1 cent and near 4.22. WH21 is down 4 cents and near 5.72. KWH21 is down 4 cents near 5.41. US stocks are lower. Us Dollar is mixed. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. Trade watching increase US virus cases versus talk of vaccine and inoculations starting this week.
Nearby soybean spreads weakened as Index funds rolled longs from Jan to March. CN-CZ21 corn spread inverting more. Some link this to talk of record USA Jan-May corn exports. Higher Russia, India and EU wheat export est and higher Canada and Australia wheat crops negative wheat.
Dry US south plains and talk of higher corn futures could suggest wheat futures near key support. Technicians feel corn and wheat futures are near support and soy complex futures near key resistance. Some guess US farmer 80-85 pct sold of 2020 soybean crop. Corn selling increased now to 60-65 pct.
China Nov soybean imports were 9.6 mmt. Dec-Jan export +21 pct yoy and near 102.3 mmt.
Brazil real near 6 month high. This has slowed farmer selling. No soybean vessels in port export line up W Brazil, S Brazil and most Argentina weather forecast is dry. (La Nina).
Asian soy complex futures are lower on talk of lower China meat demand and poor crush margins. Dalian corn futures are also lower for 5th straight day. China Yuan near 30 month high. More talk of China interest in US soybean, Brazil new crop soybean and US corn.
Ukraine corn export prices lower. Prices now working into north and west Europe ports. Matif corn lower. EU corn imports down 29 pct from last year. Suggest import closer to 13 mmt versus USDA guess of 20 mmt.
USDA report Thursday. Trade does not look for big changes to US corn, soybean, wheat 2020 balance sheet. Conab SA crop estimate also out Thursday. Trade est Brazil corn at 109 mmt vs USDA 110. Soy 132 vs 133.
On Monday, Managed funds were net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; and 15,000 Corn; sold 1,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net 2,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 287,000 Corn; net long 197,000 Soybeans; net long 66,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 115,000 Soyoil.
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