Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. North America weather forecast is crop favorable. China wheat areas mostly dry. West Canada is dry but rains are forecast for week 2. Ukraine and S Russia are dry. Crude is lower due to higher OPEC production. Stocks and gold are slightly higher. Central Banks are adding to gold reserves. There is no talk that Trump and XI will talk soon about US/China relations and trade. NATO asking EU members to increase ground based air defense fivefold.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.43. Dalian soybeans, palmoi and soymeal were lower, soyoil higher. EU oilseed imports are near 19.5 mmt vs 17.7 ly, meal imports 19.5 mmt vs 17.4 ly, vegoil 5.16 mmt vs 6.67 ly. Brazil soybean and product basis unch with China buying absent. Matif rapeseed higher due to slow farmer selling. One group dropped US 2024/25 soybean crush 20 mil vu which raised carryout to 374. They increased 2025/26 crush 60 mil bu vs USDA but dropped exports 215 mil bu. This leaves a carryout at 500 mil bu vs USDA 295. SX could test 9.70 if weather is US Midwest weather is normal.
CORN
CN is near 4.41. CZ is near 4.41. CN-CU spread narrowed to +15 as competition for US corn exports increases. Matif corn is lower with August down for 6 straight sessions. EU corn imports 17.9 mmt vs 16.6 ly, exports 2.1 vs 3.0. Brazil fob prices steady with higher crop offset by higher domestic ethanol production and cheap bag-silo storage. Some feel US 2025/26 exports are 275 mil bu below USDA which increase carryout closer to 2,020.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.37. WN support is 5.25. KWN is near 5.35. MWN is near 6.17. MWN found resistance near 5.35. Wheat rallied on news of Crimea bridge explosion but fell after bridge reopened. Matif mixed waiting for delayed farmer selling. Argentina April wheat exports higher than ly. May exports could also be higher. Russian attention is shifting to 25/26 sales, with a widening export margin and declining export taxes suggesting Russian July shipments could rebound. Australia futures lower to 7 month low due to lower export demand. Wheat trade in game of chicken between unsold farmer and unbought consumer.
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