Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are lower. USD is higher. Crude is near $68. There is talk of new sanctions on Russia oil. Gold is higher. Economists expect stronger growth and job creation, lower risk of recession and cooler inflation than they did three months ago, according to The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of professional forecasters.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 9.98. Overnight low was 9.85. SU is seeing increase is open interest. USDA est US 25/26 soybean carryout at 310 mil bu vs June est of 295. USDA raised US 2024/25 soybean exports 15 mil bu but lowered residual 15 mil bu. USDA dropped US 2025 soybean crop 5 mil bu. USDA then lowered US 25/26 exports 70 mil bu and raised crush 50 mil bu. USDA increased US domestic and export soymeal use to offset higher crush. USDA increased US 25/26 soyoil biofuel use 1,400 mil lbs and dropped exports 1,000 mil lbs. US crush will need to be near capacity to satisfy soyoil biofuel use. US soyoil biofuel use will be more than half of US production. BOU is near 54 cents on higher open interest.
CORN
CU is near 3.98. Overnight low was 3.91. CU is seeing a drop in open interest. USDA est US 25/26 corn carryout at 1,660 mil bu vs June est of 1,750. USDA lowered 24/25 feed/residual 75 mil bu and increased exports 100 mil bu. USDA lowered US 2025 corn crop 115 mil bu. USDA then lowered US 25/26 residual 50 mil bu . Some feel final US yield will end higher especially if US crop rating stays above 70 into August and exports may drop to 2,400 mil bu which could increase final 25/26 carryout to closer to 2,085 mil bu.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.49. Overnight low was 5.40. WU is seeing increase open interest and volume. KWU is near 5.30. Overnight low was 5.18. MWU is near 6.18. MWU dropped due to higher USDA HRS crop est. Overnight low was 6.09. USDA raised US 25/26 supply 18 mil bu and raised exports 25 mil bu which lower carryout 8 mil bu. USDA dropped Canada and Ukraine crop but increased Russia and EU. Russia ordered a boost in its grain and Agriculture exports.
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