Morning Grains Outlook
Grains are higher. SX is up 5 cents and near 9.30. CU is up 2 cents and near 3.42. WZ is up 4 cents and near 5.44. KWZ is up 3 cents and near 4.64. US Midwest weather maps are drier across IA and C IL over the next 10 days. US stocks are slightly lower. US Dollar is slightly lower. Crude is slightly lower. Gold is slightly lower.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 28 yuan in soybeans, down 10 in Corn, down 11 in Soymeal, up 124 in Soyoil, and up 70 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 35 ringgit at 2,680 (basis November) tracking rival oils but, concerns of weak demand capped gains.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest switched to now seeing a lesser amount of rainfall across much of the region with any rainfall coming early in the period and favoring the Ohio River valley. Temps will be above average the rest of the week and into the weekend then, fall to below average the first half of the week and remain there for the rest of the week.
The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest has a bit less than average rainfall for the region and below average temps. Temps may be flirting near 32 degrees in far northern sections of the Midwest by the end of the period (the GFS model showing colder temps then what the European model is offering).
Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 400-700 mt versus 523 last week. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 700-1,300 mt versus 723 last week. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 1,200-2,200 mt versus 2,573 last week.
Sep deliveries are estimated near 0-250 wheat, no soybeans, 2,000-3,000 soyoil, 250-500 soymeal and corn 500-1,000.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 4,700 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,300; Corn down 29,600; Soybeans up 1,500 contracts; Soymeal up 2,100 lots, and; Soyoil up 3,600.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 23; Soyoil 2,632 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice ZERO; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 1,000 Corn; bought 7,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 66,000 Corn; net long 122,000 Soybeans; net long 6,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 63,000 Soyoil.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.