Export Sales Report Today

COTTON

Lacking other news, the cotton market may put extra focus on today’s export sales report, which will reflect data as of July 31, the final date for the 2024/25 marketing year. Last week’s report showed cotton sales for the week ending July 24 at 39,124 bales for 2024/25 and 71,683 for 2025/26 for a total of 110,807. Cumulative sales for 2024/25 had reached 11.807 million bales, which was the lowest for that point in the season since 2015/16. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 had reached 2.178 million bales, which was the lowest since 2014/15. Shipments have been relatively prompt, and as of last week there were only 2.976 million bales of 2024/25 outstanding (and ready to be carried over into 2025/26) versus a five-year average of 5.880 million. The US crop (including Texas), are in very good shape, according to the weekly conditions reports, but there is a possibility of some stress in unirrigated areas of West Texas over the next week. World Weather Service says hotter temperatures are likely over the next few days, which is be good for irrigated fields, but dryland crops that need rain will be more stressed by the heat.

SUGAR

Like so many markets, October Sugar is seeing choppy action this week. The market was higher overnight after rejecting Tuesday’s low. Brazil exported 3,593,700 metric tons of sugar in July, down from 3,782,336 a year earlier, according to Brazilian government data. Brazilian production bounced back in the first half early July following a disappointing June, as dry conditions allowed the harvest to advance. It stayed dry through the second half, and that has extended into this month. Brazilian production usually peaks for the year in the second half of July, but it may stay high this month given the slow start. India is expected to produce enough to leave room for exports this year. A generally strong monsoon has been good for production, but below average rains in the southern part of the country may have offset some of the gains in the north.  World Weather Service says the state of Maharashtra, one of the major cane growing areas,  needs significant rain, which may be slow to evolve.

COFFEE

December Coffee is lower this morning but inside yesterday’s range. Cash market trading has reportedly been stalled by the uncertainty over the 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports. Brazil’s Finance Minister said yesterday that he would hold a call next week with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in a bid to normalize relations with Washington. Brazil has taken steps to increase its coffee exports to China, but it will take quite a bit of new sales to make up for the loss/reduction of sales to the US. Brazil exported 161,038 metric tons of green coffee in July, down from 202,266 a year earlier, according to Brazilian government data. Vietnam exported 1.05 million metric tons of coffee between during the first half of 2025, up 6.9% from the same period last year, government data showed. World Weather Service says some cooler air will push through Brazilian coffee production areas over the weekend and int into early next week but no threatening cold weather is expected. Some of the traditionally coldest areas may slip low enough to see a patch or two of soft frost but impact should be minimal. A gradual return of rain will occur in the Central Highlands during the next week, but the precipitation will be sporadic and light initially. Eventually, the number and significance of showers and thunderstorms will increase and next week’s weather should be much wetter than this week.

COCOA

December Cocoa is near the upper end of a two week trading range. The market reached its highest level since July 1 yesterday but has yet to achieve a 0.382 retracement of the selloff from the May high to the July low. Demand remains a concern given the sharp drop in European and Asian grind numbers for the fourth quarter and the uncertainty over what effect the tariffs will have on US consumption. Rainfall activity in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue to trends on the light side, which may have farmers a little bit concerned, though this is not an unusual pattern for this time of year. Complaints of cool temperatures by Ivory Coast growers this week may have planted some concerns as well. World Weather Service said that rainfall will be sporadic through next week. The greatest and most frequent rain is expected in eastern Nigeria and Cameroon. Rain is expected to return later this month. So far, there has been no widespread concern about crops. Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals are slow, even for mid-crop.

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