Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

FOMC This Week


U.S. stock index futures are higher, thanks to a flurry of multi-billion dollar deals on “merger Monday.”

Downtrend lines have been taken out in the past few days on the S&P 500 and the Dow futures charts.

Stock index futures are higher despite the receding likelihood of additional fiscal stimulus and ongoing tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Traders are awaiting the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s two-day monetary policy meeting that starts tomorrow when the central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady.

I am expecting the statement from the FOMC on Wednesday will be dovish on balance.


The U.S. dollar index is lower, and the euro currency is higher.

The euro advanced on news that factory output across the eurozone continued to rebound in July, but at a slower pace than in the two previous months. The European Union’s statistics agency said industrial production in the 19 countries that share the euro was 4.1% higher in July than in June but was 7.7% lower than in the same month of 2019. This marked a slowdown from the 9.5% expansion that was recorded in June.

The British Pound opened the session marginally higher. The most important event this week will take place in the House of Commons starting today, when MPs will debate the PM’s proposed changes to the Withdrawal Agreement amendments.

The Japanese yen held steady following news that Yoshihide Suga is set to be announced as Japan’s new Prime Minister after winning the ruling party’s leadership election.


The FOMC’s policy announcement on Wednesday is the major event for this week.

The FOMC will likely elaborate on its recently announced “average inflation targeting” framework. The Fed’s policy suggests it will seek inflation exceeding 2.0% for a period of time to offset recent inflation undershoots.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 96% probability that the FOMC will maintain its fed funds target rate at zero to 25 basis points.

Interest rate market futures at the short end of the curve are likely to be supported by ideas that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will keep short term interest rates low for an extended period. Some analysts believe it will be several years before the Federal Reserve will be in a position to hike its fed funds rate.

However, futures at the long end of the curve, especially the 30-year Treasury bond futures may be undermined by the inflationary aspects of the Federal Reserve’s “average inflation targeting” policy.

Click here for full report

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Get Started