Global Ag News For July 29.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China’s soymeal glut raises demand doubts ahead of US soybean export season

• Inventory buildup triggers fears of crushing plant shutdowns
• Surplus may weaken China’s soybean demand in Q4 U.S. peak season
• Recent Argentine soymeal buys likely to add to supply glut

China’s appetite for soybeans is likely to weaken during the peak U.S. marketing season later this year, as record imports earlier in 2025 and tepid demand from animal feed producers have pushed up soymeal inventories at home, trade sources said.

The world’s biggest soybean importer has yet to book U.S. cargoes for the fourth quarter, with traders closely monitoring talks in Stockholm aimed at resolving longstanding economic disputes at the centre of the U.S.-China trade war.

A slowdown in Chinese demand could pressure Chicago soybean futures, which are already down for a second consecutive week on expectations of a bumper U.S. harvest.

China’s soymeal futures fell for a fourth straight session on Tuesday amid ample supplies.

In the physical market, spot soymeal in north China was quoted at 2,925 yuan ($408) per metric ton, down 6.5% from 3,130 yuan a year ago, said Wang Wenshen, an analyst at Shandong province-based consultancy Sublime China Information.

“If third-quarter prices stay weak and crushers face losses, fourth-quarter soybean purchases may fall short of expectations,” Wang said. The last quarter of the year is typically the main U.S. soybean marketing season.

China’s overall soybean imports hit a record high in May and their second-highest level in June, boosting oilseed processing and leading to a buildup in soymeal inventories, traders said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 3/4 in SRW, down 5 1/4 in HRW, up 1 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans down 1 1/4; Soymeal up $0.20; Soyoil down 0.12.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 3 in SRW, down 2 3/4 in HRW, down 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4; Soybeans down 7 3/4; Soymeal down $1.60; Soyoil down 0.01.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 6 1/2 in SRW, down 6 in HRW, down 38 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 11 1/4; Soybeans down 16 3/4; Soymeal down $9.80; Soyoil up 3.12.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.9% in SRW, down 6.3% in HRW, down 2.3% in HRS; Corn is down 14.1%; Soybeans down 0.8%; Soymeal down 13.7%; Soyoil up 42.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans down 47 yuan; Soymeal down 27; Soyoil up 60; Palm oil up 10; Corn down 7 — Malaysian Palm is up 12.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 12 ringgit (+0.28%) at 4254.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 651 Soybeans; 780 Soyoil; 1,876 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 28 were: SRW Wheat up 3,359 contracts, HRW Wheat down 263, Corn up 6,950, Soybeans down 26,541, Soymeal down 2,647, Soyoil up 391.

 

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal north and above normal south Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday, likely north. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Midwest West: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Saturday-Sunday, near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.  

 

The player sheet for 7/28 had funds: net buyers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 12,500 corn, buyers of 4,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported private sales of 225,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico for shipment in the 2025/26 marketing year. The agency also reported corn sales to undisclosed destinations totaling 35,000 tons for 2024/25 shipment and 194,000 tons for 2025/26 shipment.
• WHEAT SALE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from Canada in an international tender on Friday.
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in Thailand issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) has issued an international tender to purchase between 52,000 to 69,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Argentina, Brazil or South Africa
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 225,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 73% G/E, Soybeans 70%

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 73% G/E vs 74% last week, and 68% a year ago
• Soybeans 70% G/E vs 68% last week, and 67% a year ago
• Spring wheat 49% G/E vs 52% last week, and 74% a year ago
• Spring wheat harvest 1% G/E vs 0% last week, and 1% a year ago
• Winter wheat harvest 80% vs 73% last week, and 81% a year ago
• Cotton 55% G/E vs 57% last week, and 49% a year ago

 

US Inspected 1.522m Tons of Corn for Export, 410k of Soybeans

In week ending July 24, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 1,522k tons vs 985k the previous wk, 1,071k a yr ago
• Wheat: 289k tons vs 732k the previous wk, 468k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 410k tons vs 377k the previous wk, 409k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: July 24

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending July 24 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Egypt-bound shipments made up 154k tons of the 410k total inspected
• Japan was the top destination for corn inspections, Nigeria led in wheat

 

Argentina to resume soy exports once tax cut official, chamber says

• Exports halted since July 1 due to tax reduction end, Idigoras says
• Soybean futures rise after tax cut announcement
• Farmers sold 52% of 2024/25 harvest by mid-July

Argentina’s grains sector is set to resume its exports of soybeans and their byproducts once the government formalizes a tax cut it announced over the weekend, the country’s CIARA-CEC grains processing trade association said on Monday.

Exports in the world’s top supplier of soy-based oil and meal came to a standstill on July 1 when a temporary tax reduction came to an end, CIARA-CEC President Gustavo Idigoras told Reuters.

However, President Javier Milei on Saturday announced a permanent tax cut on exports of soybeans and their byproducts to 26% and 24.5% respectively, from current levels of 33% and 31%.

The measure will come into force once it is published in the country’s official gazette.

Idigoras said foreign sale declarations, known as DJVEs, have been “virtually paralyzed” as of July 1, but they should resume once the decree is published.

Government spokespeople did not immediately respond to requests for comment on when this would happen.

Argentina farmers had, as of mid-July, sold 52% of a 50.9-million-ton 2024/25 soybean harvest, according to government data, including 1.05 million metric tons in the first two weeks of the month.

This was less than half the 3.27 million tons sold in the last two weeks of June, when farmers shifted large volumes before the initial temporary tax cut ended.

Idigoras said he expected sales volumes to improve, but not to the levels seen at the end of last month.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Planting activities are close to the end; liquidity continues low

The wheat planting is close to the end in Brazil. Thus, sellers continue focused on finishing crop activities, refrained from closing high volumes in the spot market. Purchasers, in turn, aim to trade in the international scenario, keeping liquidity low in the domestic market.

In Brazil, Conab says that 96.9% of the area had been planted up to July 19, similar to that verified in the same period last year and in the average over the last five years. Activities need to be finished only in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. The harvesting, in turn, has been progressing in Goiás and has started in Minas Gerais.

In Rio Grande do Sul, data from Emater/RS released on July 24 indicate that sowing activities reached 97% of the total. Weather conditions have been favoring the development of crops. In Paraná, according to Seab/Deral, planting activities finished, and 82% of crops are at good conditions.

According to data from Cepea, between July 18 and 25, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values moved down 0.83% in Rio Grande do Sul, 0.11% in Santa Catarina, 0.5% in Paraná, and 0.64% in São Paulo. The prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) rose 0.46% in Santa Catarina and 0.11% in Rio Grande do Sul, but decreased 0.71% in Paraná. The US dollar dropped 0.34% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.567 on July 25.

 

 

 

 

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