Global Ag News For July 31.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Bangladesh to buy 220,000 tons of US wheat to cool tariff tension

Bangladesh’s government has approved the purchase of about 220,000 metric tons of wheat from the United States as part of efforts to cool trade tensions and reduce steep import tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration, a Dhaka official said on Wednesday.

The purchase has been approved by Bangladesh under a government-to-government deal at $302.75 a ton, the food ministry official said. It will be supplied by a Singapore-based trading house.

Earlier in July Bangladesh signed a memorandum of understanding to import 700,000 tons of wheat annually from the United States over the next five years.

Bangladesh currently relies heavily on cheap imports from the Black Sea region for lower-cost wheat while importing smaller volumes of higher-grade grain from countries such as the United States and Canada for blending purposes.

Until the Trump administration’s dismantling of USAID this spring, Bangladesh had received shipments of U.S. wheat and other food grains as donations.

Trump threatened Bangladesh with 35% tariffs on exports from August 1 if the country did not take measures to reduce a $6 billion trade imbalance with the United States.

The planned 700,000 ton wheat purchases will only slightly dent that deficit, but Brian Liedl, vice president of overseas operations at export promotion organisation U.S. Wheat Associates, said the deal has encouraged the group to search for other countries that might decide to buy U.S. grains as a way to avoid damaging tariffs.

Liedl said the trade group was looking to strike similar deals with other countries in Asia and in sub-Saharan Africa that had previously received donated U.S. wheat and other kinds of U.S. food assistance.

“We’re looking to replace a lot of that demand with more direct, sustainably commercial business,” Liedl said.

On July 27 Bangladesh also ordered 25 aircraft from Boeing BA.N and ramped up imports of other American goods.

A Bangladesh government delegation is in the United States for trade talks this week, officials in Dhaka said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3/4 in SRW, up 3 1/2 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 3/4; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil down 0.55.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 13 3/4 in SRW, down 1 in HRW, down 8 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/2; Soybeans down 24 1/2; Soymeal down $6.60; Soyoil down 0.42.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 13 3/4 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, down 44 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 13; Soybeans down 30 1/2; Soymeal down $14.30; Soyoil up 2.81.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.9% in SRW, down 6.0% in HRW, down 3.3% in HRS; Corn is down 14.4%; Soybeans down 3.0%; Soymeal down 15.0%; Soyoil up 41.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans down 15 yuan; Soymeal up 5; Soyoil down 38; Palm oil down 60; Corn down 6 — Malaysian Palm is down 48.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 48 ringgit (-1.12%) at 4230.

There were changes in registrations (-83 Soyoil). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 651 Soybeans; 697 Soyoil; 1,876 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 30 were: SRW Wheat up 9,946 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,879, Corn down 390, Soybeans up 3,495, Soymeal up 1,509, Soyoil down 6,168.

 

ISOLATED WET SPELLS SUPPORT CRITICAL GROWTH STAGES OF WHEAT AND RAPESEED ACROSS AUSTRALIA

What to Watch:

• Dry weather across Australia except south QLD, north NSW
• Mixed temperatures in Australia

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the region on a daily basis through next week, though organized severe weather is less likely. Showers will be scattered and not widespread, but soil moisture will continue to build, favorable for corn and soybeans, but not for wheat, which will be maturing going into August. Some areas of heavy rain could degrade quality.

Central/Southern Plains: A front is slowly dropping through the region over the next couple of days, with showers waning as it gets into the Southern Plains. Temperatures are falling significantly behind the front and will be cool into next week. Showers will return to northern areas in a couple of waves this weekend and next week, as mostly favorable conditions continue for corn and soybeans.

Midwest: A slow-moving front continues to push through over the next couple of days with more scattered showers and a significant drop in temperatures. More severe weather and areas of heavy rain will be possible as the front sags through. Conditions are still mostly favorable for corn and soybeans despite the recent heat and severe weather. Showers are likely to return next week.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Isolated showers continue to develop in the heat for the next day or two. A stronger front will move into the region Thursday and Friday with more scattered showers and thunderstorms and a drop in temperatures closer to normal going into the weekend. The front may stall in the region where showers and thunderstorms would continue into early next week, at least for southern areas.

Canadian Prairies: Much of the region will be drier until Friday or the weekend, when another system will move through. Additional showers will move through the region in a couple of waves next week as well. Whether scattered showers develop or not, it will likely be too late to help with more mature areas across the south, or damaged areas across the north.

Europe: Showers continue to spin through much of the continent for the rest of the week and weekend, though they probably will not form over Spain. Another system will move through next week and could bring some severe weather. The rain will be helpful for maintaining or building some soil moisture for summer crops, but possibly causing some delays for the winter wheat harvest. Corn areas should find the conditions mostly favorable, while the rain could cause delays or quality issues for the remaining winter wheat harvest.

Black Sea: Scattered showers have been favoring the western end of the region this week, with hotter and drier conditions across the east. That should be beneficial for maturing wheat and harvest. But not for corn, which is still pretty dry across most areas in Ukraine and southwestern Russia. Showers may increase in southwestern Russia this weekend, but would likely be scattered and not the steady rainfall that the region needs.

 

The player sheet for 7/30 had funds: net sellers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,000 corn, sellers of 6,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) bought an estimated 195,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 207,000 tons on Wednesday.
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday
• CORN PURCHASE: The Incheon section of the Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: The Busan section of the Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 45,200 metric tons of rice to be sourced from Vietnam and Thailand.
• US WHEAT PURCHASE APPROVED: Bangladesh’s government has approved the purchase of about 220,000 metric tons of wheat from the United States as part of efforts to cool trade tensions and reduce steep import tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration, a Dhaka official said on Wednesday. The purchase has been approved by Bangladesh under a government-to-government deal at $302.75 a ton, the food ministry official said. It will be supplied by a Singapore-based trading house.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in Thailand issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat
• BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 225,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 1.1% to 24.716M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 24.539 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.096m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.085m

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending July 24.

• Corn est. range 1,000k – 1,900k tons, with avg of 1,517k
• Soybean est. range 250k – 900k tons, with avg of 517k

 

CROP SURVEY: US June Soybean Processing Before USDA’s Report

The following is from a Bloomberg survey of six anlaysts.

• Soybean crush seen at 196.9m bu in June, a 7.3% rise from a year ago
• Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of June seen at 1.867b lbs, down from 2.125b
• Corn used in ethanol production seen up 1.8% y/y to 454.3m bu
• The USDA is scheduled to release its June Fats and Oils report along with the Grain Crushings report on Aug. 1 at 3pm

 

Argentine exporter to ship corn to Vietnam in August, maritime agency says

Argentine exporter ACA will ship 24,718 metric tons of corn to Vietnam from one of its terminals in the port area of Quequen, according to data from local shipping agency NABSA seen by Reuters on Tuesday.

Argentina is the world’s third-largest corn exporter.

 

Indonesia sets August crude palm oil reference price at $910.91 per metric ton

Indonesia sets crude palm oil (CPO) reference price at $910.91 per metric ton for August, up from $877.89 in July, the Trade Ministry said in a statement on Thursday.

The new price means export tax for CPO in August will increase to $74 per ton, from $52 in July. Indonesia also imposes a separate 10% export levy on CPO.

 

Malaysian palm oil exports to US rise 52% to 93,000 metric tons in January-May

Malaysian palm oil exports to the United States rose 51.8% to 93,000 metric tons over January-May compared with the same period a year earlier, said the Ministry Of Plantation Industries and Commodities.

The U.S. is not a primary market for Malaysian palm oil but a 25% tariff the U.S. imposed on imports from the Southeast Asian country effective August 1 still requires attention, the ministry said in a parliamentary reply posted on parliament’s website on Wednesday

 

Malaysia July Palm Oil Exports -6.71% M/m: Intertek

Following is a summary of Malaysia’s July palm oil exports according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Total exports for July 2025: 1.29m tons
• Crude palm oil exports: 332,595 tons, 25.8% of total

 

Korea: US Tariffs on Cars Cut to 15%; No Rice, Beef Concession

US agreed to cut tariffs on South Korean vehicles to 15% vs 25%, South Korea’s senior presidential secretary Kim Yong-beom says in briefing.

• No further market opening on rice and beef products
• Map data export was not included in the deal
• Security issues will be discussed during Donald Trump-Lee Jae Myung summit

 

Poland’s 2025 Wheat Output Estimated at 12.8m Tons, Up 3% Y/y

Poland’s wheat harvest is estimated at 12.8 million tons, up 3% from the previous season, the country’s central statistical office said on Thursday.

• Barley is seen at 2.8m tons, down from 3.1m tons the year before
• Total grain production is estimated at 25.4m tons, steady y/y
• The rapeseed crop is seen at 3.6m tons, up from the previous season

 

Indonesia Says EU to Exempt Some of Its Palm Oil From Tariffs

Some palm oil exports from Indonesia will get a tariff exemption to enter the EU’s market as part of the Indonesia-EU CEPA trade deal, Airlangga Hartarto, coordinating minister for economic affairs, tells reporters on Thursday.

• A quota of one million tons a year will be set for crude palm oil; discussions are ongoing about the quota for palm kernel oil
• Govt to evaluate 2024 export volumes to decide the quota

 

Brazilian Beef Companies Halted Production to US Markets: Abiec

Brazilian meatpacking companies have halted production of beef products specifically targeted at the US market, says Roberto Perosa, the head of exporters group Abiec.

• Plants continue to produce beef for other markets, Perosa tells journalists ahead of a meeting at Brazil’s Trade Ministry
• Tariffs on Brazilian products make beef exports to the US unfeasible: Perosa
• Brazilian authorities and industry groups are still trying to negotiate tariffs

 

U.S. corn yield potential remains high amid favorable late July/early August weather

2025/26 U.S. CORN PRODUCTION: 400 [381–417] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 U.S. corn production is largely unchanged at 400 [381–417] million tons, thanks to overall favorable July weather and continued positive expectations into early August, though a potential for high temperatures expected in mid/late August warrants attention as crops move past their prime growth period. In its latest WASDE report (released on 11 July), USDA pegged U.S. corn production at 398.9 million tons, slightly below our median projection. The latest Reuters Poll of Analysts (released on 08 July) had analysts’ own estimates for corn production and yield on average at 15.73 billion bushels (vs. LSEG’s 15.75 billion bushels) and 181.2 bushels per acre (vs. LSEG’s 182.5 bushels per acre), respectively. Our current estimate puts planted area at 94.3 million acres, up 4.1% from last season, which is 0.9 million acres below the USDA’s June estimate of 95.2 million acres in its Acreage report (released on 30 June). The next USDA’s estimate of acreage (harvested area, as well as yield and production) will be released in its August Crop Production report, which is scheduled for 12 August.

USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (released on 28 July) put total national-level corn silking at 76%, on par with last year’s 75% and the five-year average of 77%. Crop condition scores continue to remain around at least 5-year high, with now 73% of the crop in the good-to-excellent (GEX) category (vs. last year’s 68%), despite a slight decline (-1% week-on-week) from the past week’s rating. Better than expected overall weather conditions have been a key contributing factor to high yield potential, starting in May/June – when it was not excessively wet for sowings but beneficial enough to improve soil moisture conditions where needed. Most of the excessive wetness in June occurred outside of the central Corn Belt during this period (largely focused on areas to the southwest of the main Corn Belt), while long awaited above average rains benefited some of the driest areas including the Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa, and southern Illinois. Hot temperatures dominated the Corn Belt in July as expected, but a series of widespread precipitation events during the month offset much of the downsides, keeping soil moisture conditions afloat, albeit some localized dryness is still present. Most key areas of the Corn Belt will likely continue to see wet conditions into early August, supporting positive yield prospects. Vegetation densities from satellite imagery remain high, hovering around near record-high levels across the key “I” states (i.e. Illinois, Iowa and Indiana). Barring high temperature risks in August, the corn crop should be in good shape.

 

High crop condition scores keep U.S. soybean production afloat

2025/26 U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 118 [112–123] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 U.S. soybean production is largely unchanged at 118 [112–123] million tons, thanks to overall favorable July weather and continued positive expectations into early August, though a potential for high temperatures expected in mid/late August warrants attention as crops move past their prime growth period. In its latest WASDE report (released on 11 July), USDA pegged U.S. soy production at 118 million tons, in line with our median projection. The latest Reuters Poll of Analysts (released on 08 July) had analysts’ own estimates for soybean production and yield on average at 4.32 billion bushels (vs. LSEG’s 4.33 billion bushels) and 52.3 bushels per acre (vs. LSEG’s 52.2 bushels per acre), respectively. Our current estimate puts planted area at 84.2 million acres, down 3.3% from last season, which is 0.8 million acres above the USDA’s June estimate of 83.4 million acres in its Acreage report (released on 30 June). The next USDA’s estimate of acreage (harvested area, as well as yield and production) will be released in its August Crop Production report, which is scheduled for 12 August.

USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (released on 28 July) put total national-level setting pods at 41%, on par with last year’s 42% and the five-year average of 42%. Crop condition scores continue to remain around at least 5-year high, with now 70% of the crop in the good-to-excellent (GEX) category (vs. last year’s 67%). Better than expected overall weather conditions have been a key contributing factor to high yield potential, starting in May/June – when it was not excessively wet for sowings but beneficial enough to improve soil moisture conditions where needed. Most of the excessive wetness in June occurred outside of the central Soy Belt during this period (largely focused on areas to the southwest of the main Soy Belt), while long awaited above average rains benefited some of the driest areas including the Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa, and southern Illinois. Hot temperatures dominated the Soy Belt in July as expected, but a series of widespread precipitation events during the month offset much of the downsides, keeping soil moisture conditions afloat, albeit some localized dryness is still present. Most key areas of the Soy Belt will likely continue to see wet conditions into early August, supporting positive yield prospects. Vegetation densities from satellite imagery remain high, hovering around near record-high levels across the key “I” states (i.e. Illinois, Iowa and Indiana). Barring high temperature risks in August, the soybean crop should be in good shape.

 

U.S. wheat production slightly down as spring wheat harvest season begins

2025/26 U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION: 52.8 [50.9–55.1] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Late season weather/satellite imagery, condition scores, and harvest progress fractionally lower 2025/26 U.S. total wheat production to 52.8 [50.9–55.1] million tons. In its July WASDE report (released on 11 July), the USDA pegged 2025/26 U.S. wheat production at 52.5 million tons, slightly below our current projection. Our current median estimate puts national-level winter wheat yield at 52.6 bushels per acre (bpa), 1.7% above last season and also above trend yield. This leads to total winter wheat production of 37.7 [36.5–39.1] million tons. Production of total spring wheat is estimated at 15.1 [14.4–16.0] million tons (with durum and other spring wheat at 2.2 and 12.9 million tons, respectively), down slightly (<1%) from last update. USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (released on 28 July) continues to indicate overall underwhelming spring wheat conditions compared to the same time last year, with only 49% of the crop in the good or excellent (GEX) category (vs. 74% last year) and 18% in the poor or very poor (PVP) category (vs. 4% last year) at the national level. Spring wheat harvest season has kicked off in many key regions on schedule. Some wet weather is expected across the spring wheat belt through early August, but should not affect the late season activities too much. On the other hand, winter wheat harvest is reported to be 80% complete so far, largely in line with last year’s 81% and the 5-year average of 81%.

 

Brazil corn production unchanged but Safrinha crop harvest delays warrant attention

2024/25 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 131.2 [127.9–134.5] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Brazil corn production is unchanged from last update at 131.2 [127.9–134.5] million tons, but a few second crop regions are experiencing harvest delays, which warrants attention. Our current position is slightly below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 132 million tons (released on 11 July) and the Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB)’s 131.97 million tons (released on 10 July). As of 26 July, Brazil’s first corn was 99.3% combined according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (released on 28 July), largely in line with last year’s 99.4% and the 5-year average of 99.2%. The second corn harvest is 66.1% complete nationally, well behind last year’s 86% and also behind the 5-year average of 70.1%. The progress has picked up greatly over the past two weeks (a 24% jump from two weeks ago), but overall still lagging, and will need extra jumps to keep up with schedule. Fortunately, dry weather is in the forecast over the next couple of weeks, which should help farmers accelerate late season operations.

 

USDA Expects ‘Majority’ of Washington, DC, Employees to Relocate

The US Department of Agriculture expects a “significant percent, more than a majority,” of its employees to take its offer to relocate from Washington, DC, to regional hubs across the country, Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden said.

• “I think many of them will choose to come because, given cuts made by other federal agencies here in Washington, DC, the job market isn’t what it once was here,” Vaden said during a Senate Agriculture Committee hearing on Wednesday
• More than 90% of USDA staffers already work outside the Washington region, and the relocation of 2,600 people would “add approximately 2.5% to that number,” Vaden said
• NOTE: More than 15,000 employees have already left the USDA through a deferred resignation program
• ALSO: A prior 2019 effort to relocate the USDA’s Economic Research Service and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture to Kansas City led to significant departures
• Vaden said the agency will save $2.2 billion by vacating buildings with deferred maintenance costs, in addition to $1.9 billion in savings from employees who chose to exit the USDA through deferred resignations
  • Figure does not account for lower costs of living and lower lease rates in the agency’s regional hubs
• The American Federation of Government Employees, which represents USDA employees, said in a letter to the heads of the committee that the relocation plan “will not ‘reposition’ these employees, it will drive them out of public service altogether”

 

 

 

 

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