Global Ag News For June 11.2025

TOP HEADLINES

US biodiesel, renewable diesel net imports to drop in 2025 due to tax credit change, EIA forecasts

The U.S. will significantly reduce the amount of biodiesel and renewable diesel it imports this year because of a federal tax credit change, the Energy Information Administration forecasted on Tuesday.

The tax credit change, known as Section 45Z and established under former President Joe Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act, replaced a flat $1 per gallon blender’s credit and instead rewards producers based on the carbon intensity of their fuels.

Section 45Z applies only to domestic production, unlike the $1 per gallon blenders tax credit, which had applied to both imported and domestically produced biodiesel and renewable diesel, the EIA said.

“As a result, imports will be at an economic disadvantage with the new tax credit and will decrease,” the EIA said in a monthly short-term energy outlook.

U.S. biodiesel net imports are expected to decrease to zero in 2025, versus 20,000 bpd in 2024. Renewable diesel net imports are expected to drop to -10,000 bpd in 2025, versus 30,000 in 2024.

The agency added that the decrease in renewable diesel net imports appeared larger because of a structural change in its data. Before 2025, the EIA’s renewable diesel net imports data only included imports but the agency has since introduced renewable diesel export data.

“In this forecast, we assume about half of the decline in renewable diesel net imports in 2025 is due to the introduction of exports while the other half is due to the tax credit change,” the agency said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3/4 in SRW, up 2 1/4 in HRW, up 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans up 2 1/4; Soymeal up $1.70; Soyoil down 0.07.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 17 3/4 in SRW, down 18 1/2 in HRW, down 17 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal up $2.30; Soyoil up 0.08.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 1 1/4 in SRW, down 3 3/4 in HRW, down 8 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans up 18 1/4; Soymeal up $1.30; Soyoil up 0.63.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.6% in SRW, down 5.1% in HRW, up 3.7% in HRS; Corn is down 3.4%; Soybeans up 6.3%; Soymeal down 3.1%; Soyoil up 19.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 23 yuan; Soymeal up 21; Soyoil down 44; Palm oil down 132; Corn up 6 — Malaysian Palm is down 25.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 25 ringgit (-0.65%) at 3839.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 10 were: SRW Wheat down 10,496 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,767, Corn down 21,396, Soybeans up 1,571, Soymeal up 6,583, Soyoil down 2,409.

 

LARGELY MIXED WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR NORTH AMERICA

What to Watch:

• Warmth could return to most U.S. crop regions later in the month
• Mixed precipitation pattern ahead

 

The player sheet for 6/10 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 500 corn, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) bought an estimated 204,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Tuesday
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) purchased an estimated 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Tuesday seeking up to 68,000 tons.
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from Brazil in an international tender on Wednesday
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has received offers to supply up to 120,000 metric tons each of corn, barley and soymeal after it had issued international tenders.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 95,450 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB is holding a new international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins for shipment during July 1-15.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending June 6 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.08m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 24.49m bbl vs 24.44m a week ago

 

Brazil Expected to Consume Much of Its Bumper Corn Harvest — Market Talk

Domestic corn demand in Brazil will keep out of global markets much of the country’s second-largest harvest ever. Brazilian corn exports this year “are projected to decline due to rising domestic demand from animal feed producers and the expanding corn ethanol industry,” University of Illinois researchers write. Brazilian ethanol is typically made of sugar cane, but the use of corn is growing. The harvest is expected to reach 5 billion bushels, higher than last year’s and above previous projections. The increase “is largely attributed to high yield potential, as planted area increased only slightly by just 1.5% from last year,” the researchers say. On the CBOT, corn rises 1%.

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Drop 33% Y/y During Season to June 8

EU soft-wheat exports in the season that ends this month totaled 19.5m tons as of June 8, compared with 29.2m tons a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include Nigeria with 2.7m tons, Morocco with 2.66m tons and Algeria at 1.72m tons
• Barley exports were at 4.23m tons, down 25% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 18.7m tons, up 7% y/y

 

Abiove Keeps Soymeal Production Forecast For Season At 44.1 Million Tns

• BRAZIL OILSEED LOBBY ABIOVE KEEPS 2024/25 SOYBEAN OUTPUT FORECAST AT 169.7 MILLION TNS
• ABIOVE KEEPS SOYBEAN EXPORT FORECAST THIS SEASON AT 108.2 MILLION TNS
• ABIOVE KEEPS SOYOIL PRODUCTION FORECAST AT 11.45 MILLION TNS FOR SEASON
• ABIOVE KEEPS SOYBEAN CRUSHING FORECAST FOR SEASON AT 57.5 MILLION TNS
• ABIOVE KEEPS SOYOIL EXPORT FORECAST FOR SEASON TO 1.4 MILLION TNS
• ABIOVE KEEPS SOYMEAL PRODUCTION FORECAST FOR SEASON AT 44.1 MILLION TNS
• ABIOVE KEEPS SOYMEAL EXPORT FORECAST FOR SEASON AT 23.6 MILLION TNS

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 14.08 million tons in June – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 14.08 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 12.55 MILLION SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.07 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 1.29 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 923.401 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 835,660 TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK

 

Palm Oil Seen at 3,800-4,200 Ringgit for Next 6 Months: Glenauk

Palm oil prices are seen at around 3,800-4,200 per ton during the next six months, Julian McGill, managing director of consultancy Glenauk Economics, said at an industry conference in Jakarta on Tuesday.

• NOTE: Most-active futures in Kuala Lumpur closed at 3,864/ton on Tuesday
• Supply is now recovering, but demand is also showing promising signs, McGill said
• Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil producer, is likely to see good yields in 2Q from all regions except East Kalimantan, he said
• China and India are set to ramp up palm oil purchases for June-August as price spreads versus rival oils narrow, reviving demand
• Still, palm oil will trade at a premium to other oils more frequently in the future, McGill said
• Palm’s recent stint as a premium oil caused it to lose market share in China and the EU

 

China Completes 75% Harvest of Summer Wheat, Ministry Says

As of June 10, 74.7% of the national summer wheat crop have been harvested, totaling 260 million mu, according to a statement from the agriculture ministry.

 

Drought-hit Russian grain region Rostov declares state of emergency

Russia’s largest grain producing region, Rostov, has declared a state of agricultural emergency in some drought-hit areas, the local governor said on Tuesday.

The emergency regime, which enables farmers to seek compensation for losses, also serves as a signal for markets on prospects for this year’s harvest.

“This year farmers have to work under extremely unfavourable weather conditions. Today we are introducing a state of emergency in some districts of the region due to drought,” governor Yuri Slyusar wrote on Telegram.

The region had also been hit by spring frosts, though they were less severe than last year, when the Rostov grain harvest fell by more than a fifth owing to adverse weather events. Harvesting in the region is due to start in the second half of June.

This year’s grain harvest in Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, is projected to reach 135 million metric tons, up from last year’s 130 million tons, Deputy Prime Minister for Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev said earlier on Tuesday.

 

Drought continues to threaten EU-27+UK wheat production, despite recent rainfall

2025/26 EU-27 + UK WHEAT PRODUCTION: 145.3 [138.1-152.6] MILLION TONS, UCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent favorable rains keep 2025/26 EU-27+UK wheat production at 145.3 [138.1-152.6] million metric tons (mmt), but drought risk remains. Production estimates include 137.96 mmt of soft wheat and 7.36 mmt of durum wheat.

Over the past two weeks, European countries have experienced warmer temperatures with mixed precipitation. Spain, France, and Italy remained mostly dry, while Poland, Germany, and the U.K saw above-average rainfall (5–55 mm). Despite recent precipitation easing some dryness, soil moisture levels in Germany and Poland remain at six-year lows, threatening wheat yield potential.

According to the latest weather forecasts, Eastern and Central Europe will experience colder temperatures, and Western/Southern Europe should stay warm. Precipitation-wise, mostly dry conditions will occur across the continent, raising concerns for adequate soil moisture levels in France, Germany, and Poland.

 

Recent and expected weather conditions keep Russian wheat production unchanged

2025/26 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 80.6 [78.9-84.6] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent warmer weather and moderate rains sustain 2025/26 Russian wheat production at 80.6 [78.9-84.6] million tons (MMT). Our estimate consists of 55.2 MMT of winter wheat and 25.4 MMT of spring wheat and does not include the occupied Ukrainian Oblasts.

The past two weeks featured warm conditions across Russia, with rainfall surpluses (5-30 mm above normal) in Central and Volga Districts. But more precipitation is needed to fully recharge soil moisture. In addition, intensified drought in the Southern and North Caucasian Districts continue to threaten wheat production in the regions.

According to the latest weather forecasts, cool weather conditions will occur over the main wheat-producing Districts starting from next week, potentially slowing crop development. Moderate rainfall is expected across the continent, which may help improve soil moisture in currently dry areas.

 

China Nudges Pig Farmers to Restrain Supply After Prices Slump

China is seeking to control hog numbers and curb pork production, in a bid to support prices of the country’s favorite meat and ease deflationary pressures in the economy.

Authorities have asked farmers to be prudent when it comes to expanding their sow herds, and to halt secondary fattening of livestock, according to people familiar with the matter, who declined to be named as they aren’t authorized to speak publicly. The latter practice involves buying standard pigs and fattening them beyond normal slaughter-weights to boost meat output.

By guiding farmers to limit production now, the government is likely hoping to avoid more forceful measures later that could exacerbate price swings and destabilize the market. The National Development and Reform Commission, the state planning agency that contacted producers, didn’t respond to a faxed request for comment.

China’s commodity markets and the wider economy are feeling the strain of slowing growth, compounded by Beijing’s trade disputes with the US. Wholesale pork prices are near their lowest in almost a year, having dropped 10% from a January peak. The protein is an important component of consumer prices, which have been in deflation for four straight months.

The focus on smoothing China’s pork cycle — where prices are driven by mismatches in supply and demand — has become more acute in the wake of the market’s historic boom and bust around the turn of the decade, which occurred after African swine fever wiped out much of the herd.

Policymakers are also concerned about rural incomes. Pig farmers have struggled to make ends meet this year, and are now losing about 70 yuan ($10) on each animal raised. Sow numbers, meanwhile, have climbed to 40.38 million, above the 39 million considered normal and close to levels that might trigger formal intervention.

Controlling livestock numbers has ramifications beyond the domestic economy. The country’s hog herd is the world’s largest and consumes vast quantities of feed, including items like soybeans that are mostly imported. Capping slaughter weights and limiting production would reduce demand, a move that serves China’s food security priorities while undermining export prospects for suppliers in Brazil and the US.

 

 

 

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