Global Ag News For June 4.2025

TOP HEADLINES

US Agriculture Sentiment Improves in May: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index increased to 158 points in May from 148 in April, according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• Current conditions component improved by 5 points from April
• Future expectations up by 12 points

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/4 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, up 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans up 3; Soymeal up $0.90; Soyoil up 0.20.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 3 in SRW, up 2 3/4 in HRW, down 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/2; Soybeans up 2 1/4; Soymeal down $1.00; Soyoil up 0.06.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.6% in SRW, down 4.2% in HRW, up 3.6% in HRS; Corn is down 3.9%; Soybeans up 4.6%; Soymeal down 4.0%; Soyoil up 18.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 13 yuan; Soymeal down 1; Soyoil up 12; Palm oil down 34; Corn up 1 — Malaysian Palm is up 15.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 15 ringgit (+0.38%) at 3949.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 26 ringgit (+0.66%) at 3960.There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 516 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 3 were: SRW Wheat down 3,147 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,934, Corn up 16,635, Soybeans up 1,073, Soymeal up 4,921, Soyoil down 6,081.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 03 JUNE 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Near or above normal rainfall is expected across most U.S. spring crop regions during the next 10 days, though Canada is trending direr
• SOUTH AMERICA: Warma and dry conditions are expected across most of the Pampas region in Argentina during the next 10 days
• BLACK SEA: Warmth between 4-6 °C above normal remains expected across the Black Sea region during the next 10 days
• SOUTH ASIA: Relatively cool condition between 2-4 °C below normal are expected across much of India during the next two weeks

 

Northern Plains: A front brought scattered showers through the region Sunday night into Monday, but amounts were disappointing outside of parts of central Montana. Some isolated showers may follow in the colder air behind the front throughout the rest of the week. A system should move through Canada this weekend and could bring some more showers through eastern areas as well. And we will watch for additional chances next week from a couple of storm systems. The region needs the rain, as drought still covers a widespread area, though it has decreased in coverage over the last few weeks. Cooler temperatures are forecast behind the first system over the next couple of days, but generally mild conditions are favored through next week.

Central/Southern Plains: A front and system combined to produce heavy rain in Nebraska and scattered showers elsewhere on Monday, and will continue to sweep through the region through Wednesday. Another system follows behind it with more rain for Thursday and Friday and we could see showers continuing into the weekend as well. All of those disturbances should bring some areas of heavy rain through the region yet again, though there are some areas that may miss out. Models are still working out the specifics, but it looks like a good week for precipitation again. That should help filling wheat and developing corn and soybeans going into next week.

Midwest: A front started to move into the region Monday night and is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. It will stall out for a day or two across the south where heavy rain may accumulate. Another system along the front will come through Thursday night and Friday with showers that may or may not be widespread. Models are still trying to decide. Additional fronts will move through this weekend and next week, keeping the active pattern going through mid-June. For drier areas across the north, the pattern is favorable. But for wetter areas across the south and east, the forecast keeps soils looking wet as producers have a hard time finishing up planting.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A front will move close to the northern end of the region on Wednesday and stall out for a few days, then get pushed south this weekend and stall through the middle of the region for next week. Models are unsure exactly where, but a lot of precipitation is forecast where the front stalls. That zone may shift slightly north and south with time next week as well. Overly wet conditions continue across a wide area of the region and the coming rain will not be helpful. We will also keep an eye on the Gulf for potential tropical systems next week.

Canadian Prairies: A system brought limited showers to Alberta and the southeastern over the last couple of days. Showers were lighter than hoped for. Isolated showers may continue throughout the week, but be very spotty and light. A system is possible this weekend, though models are reducing the rainfall with this system and bringing it mostly to eastern areas. Disturbances moving through behind it next week could fill in some showers though, too. With planting all but finished, rainfall is needed in several areas for proper germination and early growth. Many areas of the region are drying out quickly and in real need of rain.

Brazil: A front stalled out across southern safrinha corn areas could be active multiple times over the next week, bringing somewhat favorable rainfall to corn that is still filling. Harvest has begun though, and will increase throughout the month of June, so this rainfall will not be overly helpful for the crop. Southern wheat areas are forecast to stay drier, which could use some rain for establishment.

Argentina: It was dry and cold over the weekend, with widespread frosts across much of the country going back to last week, especially in the south and west. With corn and soybean harvest underway, the frosts are not damaging, but could slow growth for winter wheat. That crop continues to ramp up planting through the month of June but is in need of some rain in areas that were not flooded in May.

Europe: Scattered showers will continue to favor northern areas throughout the week, but there will be plenty of areas that miss out. France may have larger sections of the country that do not see much rainfall. While northern areas are seeing rainfall, it’s coming in patches that are missing some areas, too. Drier conditions across the south are noteworthy, but recent rainfall should stem the tide of a drier pattern there for the next two weeks.

Black Sea: Several systems will move through over the next two weeks, but they are favoring the northwest with rainfall, while leaving the south and east much drier. Long-term deficits continue in many areas, including western Russia, and the lack of soil moisture is concerning for reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn.

Australia: Scattered showers moved into Western Australia Sunday night and will be possible through Wednesday. The rainfall will be much-appreciated, though amounts are spotty. A little disturbance moving through eastern Australia brought some showers as well, but with very little coverage. The western system could hang around southeastern Australia later this week into early next week. Any rainfall there will be welcomed under the intensifying drought which has been unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

China: Systems continue to bypass central China in early June, favoring areas south of the Yangtze River and in the northeast. Filling wheat on the North China Plain has had harsher conditions to end their season and could see additional stress before harvest begins in mid-June. Corn and soybeans in this region could also be facing tougher conditions early in the growth stages. Models start to come more alive mid-month, so this may be temporary.

 

LARGELY FAVORABLE WEATHER AHEAD FOR U.S. CROPS

What to Watch:

• Lack of hot or dry weather across most U.S. crop regions in the short-term
• Warm and dry conditions in Canada

 

The player sheet for 6/3 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 500 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB is holding a new international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins for shipment during July 1-15.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending May 30 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.061m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 24.247m bbl vs 24.281m a week ago

 

Malaysia’s May palm oil stocks seen rising for third month despite firm exports

• May stocks likely to rise 7.74% to 2.01 mln metric tons – poll
• Output forecast to climb 3% to 1.74 million MT
• Exports projected to increase 17.9% to 1.3 mln MT
• Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due on June 10

Malaysia’s palm oil inventories are projected to climb for a third consecutive month in May, driven by a modest recovery in production despite robust export demand, a Reuters survey showed on Wednesday.

Palm oil stocks are forecast to reach 2.01 million metric tons, up 7.74% from April, according to a median estimate of 11 traders, planters, and analysts polled by Reuters. This would mark the highest inventories seen since last September.

Crude palm oil production likely rose to 1.74 million metric tons in May, up 3% from April, marking the third consecutive monthly increase. If confirmed, it would be the highest May output since 2015.

Malaysian palm oil stocks at the end of May rose to nearly 2 million tons, driven by a moderate increase in production and slightly higher imports of cheaper Indonesian palm oil for supply replenishment, which offset robust exports, said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group.

Exports of palm oil products are projected to surge 17.9% to 1.3 million metric tons, for the third successive month, according to the survey.

This marks the strongest export volumes since last December.

 

China’s Rapemeal Drops on Warming Ties with Top Supplier Canada

China’s rapeseed meal prices dropped to their lowest in two weeks on signs of warming trade ties with Canada, the top supplier of the animal feed ingredient to the Asian nation.

China and Canada should get economic and trade relations back on track, the Chinese commerce minister said during a meeting with the Canadian minister of international trade in Paris.

The high-level meeting and positive remarks instilled some hope in traders that Beijing could loosen restrictions on Canadian rapeseed meal shipments if trade relations continue to thaw.

That would ease supplies that have tightened since China imposed a 100% tariff on rapeseed meal and oil from Canada, where the crop is known as canola, along with a smaller duty on pork and seafood imports in March. The measures were in retaliation to Canadian levies on Chinese-made electric vehicles, steel and aluminum imposed last year. The Asian nation also has an ongoing anti-dumping probe into Canadian rapeseed imports, leaving open the possibility that further measures can be imposed as early as September.

Beijing’s retaliatory trade measures essentially halted flow of Canadian rapeseed meal to China, and threatened to cause supply shocks in the world’s largest livestock producer amid depleting stockpiles. Chinese traders have scrambled to tap alternative sources of rapeseed, but establishing new trade routes hasn’t been cheap or easy.

 

China’s customs approves imports of Russian coarse ground wheat, rye flour

China’s General Administration of Customs said it has approved the import of coarse ground wheat and rye flour from Russia, according to statements.

 

Ukraine’s farm exports rise to 4.04 million tons in May, ministry data shows

Ukraine’s agricultural exports rise to 4.04 million metric tons in May from 3.73 million tons in April thanks to a larger shipments of corn and wheat, the country’s farm ministry data showed on Wednesday.

Ukraine exported most of the commodities via its Black Sea ports and the export included 2 million tons of corn, 849,700 tons of wheat, 461,194 tons of sunoil, 344,950 tons of oilseed meals, 270,368 tons of soybeans and some other commodities.

 

Ukraine corn production prospects maintain afloat, but drought risks exist

2025/26 UKRAINE CORN PRODUCTION: 28.2 [26.8-29.6] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

With planting campaign heading towards the end, 2024/25 Ukraine corn production is kept at 28.2 [26.8-29.6] million tons. As of May 30th, farmers have planted 3.894 million hectares of corn, which is 98% of the expected area. Over the past two weeks, western Ukraine has experienced cool and wet conditions, with rain surpluses (15-65 mm above normal) in Vinnytsia, Odessa, Khmelnytskiy, and Zhytomyr Oblasts, which have improved soil moisture. Meanwhile, dry conditions elsewhere allowed farmers to complete fieldwork.

Moving forward, the latest weather forecasts indicate warm conditions with below normal precipitation. The long-term weather outlook for summer months predicts warm and dry weather conditions, which may negatively affect yield potential.

 

Brazil’s corn harvest expected to improve global supply and affect demand for US corn

US corn export net sales slowed in late May but remained above last year’s level. As of May 29, total exports were 48.2 million tons with 16.0 million tons in outstanding sales. Brazilian corn entering the market late June will alleviate the global supply shortage and subsequently reduce demand for US corn.  We increased the 2024/25 US corn export projection to 67.6 million tons based on recent and expected export trends. Despite higher production and supply, the 2025/26 US corn exports were estimated to decline slightly to 66.0 million tons due to more competitions from South America and expected normalization of corn production in the EU.

Since March, Argentine corn exports have generally been slower than last season. LSEG agriculture research estimated that Argentina corn production declined by 2.0 million tons from last season due to adverse weather conditions during growing season. We estimated 2024/25 exports would decline by 1.5 million tons to 34.73 million tons. If corn production returns to a normal level of 53 million tons next year, Argentine exports may reach 37.1 million tons in the 2025/26 season.

In May, LSEG trade flows tracked 65 thousand tons of Brazilian corn shipments. Post-June harvest, exports are expected to resume. Brazil’s corn production is estimated to increase by 10 million tons from last season by LSEG agriculture research. Considering increased domestic use and low carry-out stocks, we estimated 2024/25 exports at 41.5 million tons, and 2025/26 exports at 40.6 million tons.

Ukraine’s corn export prices eased slightly in May. Exports increased by 18% from the previous month. The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture reported 20.6 million tons of corn exports since last July and about 17.5 million tons since last October. We raised 2024/25 Ukraine corn exports (Oct/Sep) to 21 million tons. However, EU’s plans to reduce duty-free quotas on Ukrainian imports from June 2025 could lower demand for Ukrainian corn. We estimated 2025/26 Ukraine corn exports to increase slightly to 22 million tons despite much higher production expectations.

 

Export duty on Russian wheat drops 25% to 1,023.5 rubles per tonne on June 4 – Agriculture Ministry
The export duty on Russian wheat has dropped 25% to 1,023.5 rubles per tonne on June 4 from 1,365.5 rubles per tonne in the previous duty period, the Agriculture Ministry said.

The duty on barley has once again been zeroed out, and the duty on corn has dropped to 506.1 rubles per tonne from 606 rubles per tonne.

The duties are based on indicative prices of $244.30 per tonne for wheat against $248.40 per tonne the previous duty period, $204 per tonne for barley versus $204 per tonne, and $220.90 per tonne for corn against $220.90 per tonne.

The new rates are valid until June 10, inclusive.

 

The odds of La Niña conditions later this year increased, but certainty remains low

What to Watch:

• Our initial ENSO forecast for September-November increases the likelihood of entering weak La Niña phase, though uncertainty remains high
• Primary risks include adverse conditions for winter wheat in Argentina and excessive rainfall across Western Europe during harvest
• A warm forecast across all Northern Hemisphere latitudes reduces the risk of early frost events

CROP IMPACT

North America (wheat/corn/soybeans): The forecast of widespread warmth and relatively dry conditions will be very favorable for the spring crop harvest across the U.S. and most of the Canadian Prairies. Also, if verified, it will support winter wheat plantings over the Plains, as it reduces the risk of early winter onset.

South America (corn, wheat, coffee): The forecast shows widespread warmth across the continent, with dry conditions in the Argentinian Pampas and mixed precipitation outlook in Brazil. If it verifies, drought may become a primary concern for winter wheat in Argentina during the main growing season. In Brazil, warm and wet outlook in the Southeast would bring ideal conditions for coffee blooming. Dry conditions expected locally in Central and Southern Brazil would support corn and soybean plantings, though they may also raise concerns of prolonged dry period extending from June-August and affecting spring crops and sugarcane in the long-term.

Europe/Black Sea (wheat/rapeseed/corn): Mostly warm forecast is favorable for crops in Europe and Black Sea and should mitigate the risk of early frost. On the other hand, rainfall activity is likely to be increased, posing a threat to late developing crops and harvest delays. This might be especially true for France, as the highest rainfall intersects with lower temperature anomalies, elevating the risk of local flooding – which warrants attention.

THE INITIAL FORECAST INDICATES INCREASING CHANCE OF REACHING LA NINA THRESHOLD IN SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER

The Niño 3.4 Region SST (Sea Surface Temperature) anomaly was recorded at -0.1 °C below the norm during the last week of May. The Ocean Heat Content (OHC) anomaly continued at +0.5 °C level and the West Pacific trade winds have also remained relatively weak, which together resulted in little change in the ENSO anomaly.

 

 

 

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