Global Ag News For May 28.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Brazil finds bird flu in wild bird, investigates potential case on commercial farm

Brazil identified fresh bird flu cases in wild animals, which it said should not have any commercial impact, and is investigating a new potential case on a commercial farm, Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said on Tuesday.

Brazil, the world’s largest chicken exporter, earlier this month identified a bird flu outbreak on a commercial farm in the southern city of Montenegro, triggering both nationwide and regional trade bans from dozens of countries.

The new case on wild birds happened in the city of Mateus Leme, located in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais, data in the Agriculture Ministry’s website showed.

Favaro told a Senate hearing that the case should be treated as something “natural”, since Brazil is rich in migratory birds, which generally transmit viruses.

The minister also said that authorities were investigating a potential new case on a commercial flock in the Brazilian southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, the same state where the Montenegro outbreak had happened.

The case under investigation was from a commercial farm in the city of Anta Gorda, where Brazil identified an outbreak of Newcastle disease on a poultry farm last year.

Brazil is currently investigating about a dozen of potential outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian flu, but only two, including the one in Anta Gorda, are on commercial farms, data from the ministry showed.

Preliminary tests had already indicated a negative result for a case under investigation on a commercial farm in the northern state of Tocantins.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 6 3/4 in SRW, up 7 3/4 in HRW, up 10 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans down 3/4; Soymeal down $0.10; Soyoil up 0.14.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 7 1/4 in SRW, down 6 1/2 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans up 1 1/2; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 0.33.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 4 1/2 in SRW, up 2 3/4 in HRW, up 9 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 13; Soybeans up 17 1/4; Soymeal down $1.80; Soyoil up 0.74.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.9% in SRW, down 4.8% in HRW, up 1.8% in HRS; Corn is up 0.9%; Soybeans up 6.4%; Soymeal down 3.7%; Soyoil up 24.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 2 yuan; Soymeal up 5; Soyoil up 14; Palm oil up 72; Corn up 3 — Malaysian Palm is up 31.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 31 ringgit (+0.80%) at 3899.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 598 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 27 were: SRW Wheat up 3,188 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,340, Corn up 1,621, Soybeans up 8,022, Soymeal down 1,968, Soyoil up 4,585.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 27 MAY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Cool conditions will prevail across most U.S. crop regions during the next 5 days, before a mixed pattern emerges thereafter
• SOUTH AMERICA: Cool conditions between 2-5 °C below normal are expected across Argentina during the next 5 days, before modest conditions take hold thereafter
• EAST ASIA: A largely mixed precipitation pattern is expected across China during the next 10 days, though dryness is expected in the North China Plain and the Northeast
• BLACK SEA: Warmth is expected to prevail across most of the Black Sea region during the next 10-15 days

 

MIXED WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA

What to Watch:

• Shifting temperature pattern through the next week
• Dry this week, though the 6-10 day period could hold heavy rainfall

 

The player sheet for 5/27 had funds: net sellers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from Brazil in an international tender on Wednesday
• CORN, SOYMEAL, BARLEY PURCHASES: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have purchased an unknown volume of animal feed corn, soymeal and feed barley in international tenders that closed on Monday.
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued a new international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, which can be sourced from the United States, Argentina, Brazil or South Africa.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.396m Tons of Corn for Export, 195k of Soybeans

In week ending May 22, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 1,396k tons vs 1,760k the previous wk, 1,130k a yr ago
• Wheat: 562k tons vs 431k the previous wk, 399k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 195k tons vs 225k the previous wk, 223k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: May 22

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending May 22 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Egypt-bound shipments made up 53k tons of the 195k total inspected
• Japan was the top destination for corn inspections, South Korea led in wheat

 

Brazil soy exports seen at 14.03 mln tons in May vs 14.52 mln tns in previous estimate – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 14.03 MILLION METRIC TNS IN MAY VERSUS 14.52 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.21 MILLION TNS IN MAY VERSUS 2.36 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Drop 34% Y/y During Season to May 25

EU soft-wheat exports in the season that started July 1 totaled 18.8m tons as of May 25, compared with 28.4m tons for the same period in the prior year, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include with Morocco, taking 2.66m tons, Nigeria with 2.54m tons and Algeria at 1.62m tons
• Barley exports were at 4.22m tons, down 23% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 18m tons, up 7% y/y
• NOTE: Click here for figures on oilseed trade
• NOTE: Export data for Italy aren’t complete since the beginning of May; data for France aren’t complete since the beginning of the 2024 calendar year; data for Bulgaria and Ireland aren’t complete since the beginning of the 2023-24 marketing year

 

Bigger German wheat, rapeseed crop expected in 2025, farm body says

Germany’s 2025 wheat crop will increase 13.6% on the year to 21.01 million metric tons, the country’s association of farm cooperatives said in its latest harvest estimate on Wednesday, continuing a series of crop forecasts of a larger harvest.

It forecast Germany’s harvest of winter rapeseed, used for vegetable oil and biodiesel production, to rise 5.6% on the year and stand at 3.82 million tons.

That was down from the association’s previous forecast in April of a German 2025 wheat crop of 21.41 million tons and a rapeseed crop of 3.97 million tons.

Some crops had suffered from late winter frosts and springtime drought in north Germany which is likely to cut yields from earlier higher expectations, the association said.

However, recent rain had relieved drought concerns and a substantial annual increase is still expected.

Germany is the European Union’s second largest wheat producer after France and one of the bloc’s leading rapeseed producers.

The winter barley crop, mostly used for animal feed, will fall 3.9% on the year to 8.39 million tons after frost and dry weather stressed plants, the association said. The spring barley crop, often used for beer and malt production, will fall 14.4% to 1.60 million tons partly because the generally mild winter reduced the need to replace damaged winter crops with early spring sowings.

The grain maize (corn) crop will fall 6.2% to 4.60 million tons, it said.

 

Recent rains increased Russian wheat production estimate, but drought risk remains

2025/26 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 80.6 [78.9-84.6] MILLION TONS, UP 1.4% FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent much-needed rains increase 2025/26 Russian wheat production to 80.6 [78.9-84.6] million tons (MMT). Our estimate consists of 55.2 MMT of winter wheat and 25.4 MMT of spring wheat and does not include the occupied Ukrainian Oblasts.

The past two weeks featured cooler temperatures, with average precipitation across Russia. Rainfall surpluses (15-50 mm above normal) in Northwestern and Volga Districts improved soil moisture levels. On the other hand, continued dryness in Central and North Caucasian District worsens drought stress.

According to the latest weather forecasts, little to no rain and warm conditions are expected in Southern and North Caucasian districts, which, if verified, could reduce winter wheat yield potential. Meanwhile, moderate temperatures and dry conditions are expected over the Volga and Ural District, which should be beneficial for ongoing spring plantings.

 

Australian farmers plant more barley, less canola this year; wheat area unchanged

Australian farmers are set to plant a similar area with wheat this year to last season, while increasing barley and reducing canola sowing, as low wheat prices boost barley’s appeal and dry conditions make canola less viable, analysts said.

Eastern and some western cropping areas have received ample rain but a lack of soil moisture in South Australia, Victoria and parts of Western Australia hangs over the harvest outlook.

The median of seven forecasts from analysts and traders was for Australia to produce 30.3 million metric tons of wheat in 2025/26, which is 3.8 million tons lower than last year’s output but above the 10-year average of 27.6 million tons.

Australia is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and ships feed grain barley to buyers in countries including China, Japan and Saudi Arabia.

Demand for Australian canola could rise in the coming season from China with Beijing locked in a trade dispute with Canada, its traditional supplier of the oilseed.

Australian farmers are now sowing winter crops that they will harvest towards year-end.

The median estimate for Australia’s wheat planting shows no change from last year. Barley is expected to rise by 2% and canola to decline by 5%, although some forecasts suggest much larger shifts for both crops.

Some analysts also said planting of pulses – lentils and chickpeas – could increase by as much as 20% after they offered bumper returns in recent seasons.

High fertiliser costs and wheat prices Wv1 near 5-year lows are discouraging wheat planting, while expectations of strong feed demand are making barley more attractive, said Rabobank analyst Vitor Pistoia.

Australia is used to dry starts to the cropping season and many farmers enact their sowing plans regardless, putting seeds into dry earth and hoping rain will come.

However, some do respond to conditions.

“When it’s dry, farmers drop higher risk production crops like canola and plant more wheat or barley,” said Stefan Meyer, who runs a grains trading team at brokers StoneX.

The states that have suffered the biggest deficit of rainfall, South Australia and Victoria, are not the biggest producing regions, said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at IKON Commodities.

“Even if it doesn’t rain in those two states, it would be a 28-29 million ton wheat crop,” he said.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology this month predicted median or above median rainfall during June-to-August in most cropping regions, with the exception of parts of Victoria and Western Australia.

 

China’s Soy Meal Market Facing Volatility: Securities Journal

China’s soybean meal market has been volatile so far this year and faces a pivotal June-July period that could send prices soaring or tumbling, China Securities Journal reported, citing analysts.

• A fragile protein supply chain where logistics delays and global crop risks collide with cyclical demand have resulted in extreme volatility for soy prices this year
• Smoother soybean imports and restored crushing operations mean inventories may enter a sustained growth period from June, potentially pressuring prices, according to Wang Ruwen, an analyst for commodities consultancy SCI99
• Bullish factors include potential soybean production losses from Argentine rains and the approaching sensitive weather period for US crops, according to CICC futures analyst Yu Ruiguang

 

South Africa Crops Body Cuts 2025 Corn-Output Forecast by 0.1%

Crop Estimates Committee reduces forecast for corn output in 2025 by 0.1% to 14.6 million tons.

• The harvest would still be 14% bigger than a year earlier, it says in a statement on its website
• It raises the estimate for production of the yellow variety by 1.3% to 6.995 million tons, and cuts the forecast for output of white corn 1.4% to 7.6 million tons
• It maintains the soybean-output forecast at 2.3 million tons
• White corn is used to make a staple porridge known as pap while the yellow variety is mainly used in animal feed

 

India Reiterates Ample Monsoon Rain Forecast After Early Onset

India maintained its April forecast of ample monsoon rains this year, spurring optimism that farmers in the world’s most populous nation will potentially harvest bumper crops.

Precipitation during the four-month rainy season, which started eight days earlier that usual on May 24, is expected to be above-average this year, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department, said at a media briefing. Total rains across the country are likely to be 106% of the normal, he said in New Delhi on Tuesday.

The monsoon is vital for the South Asian nation’s economy as about half of the population depends on agriculture and allied activities for their livelihood. Rising rural incomes increase spending on manufactured products, boosting economic growth. The rains also determine supplies of food crops in the country. There is speculation that conducive weather may also prompt the government to ease curbs on exports of wheat and sugar.

Besides watering fields and ensuring adequate soil moisture, the rainy period that brings in the bulk of India’s total annual rainfall is also critical for replenishing reservoirs that irrigate most winter-sown crops. Below-average rain can create water shortages, reduce harvests and raise imports of some commodities such as edible oil and pulses.

One of the factors that’s working in India’s favor is the higher probability that the rainy season won’t collide with an El Niño weather pattern, which typically reduces rainfall, according to the weather office. The IMD does not foresee the occurrence of the weather-roiling phenomenon, which is triggered by warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, in the June-September period.

The average rainfall for the entire country in June is expected to be more than 108% of the long-period average, Mohapatra said, adding that the model could have a margin of error of 4%.

“Above-normal rainfall carries benefits for agriculture and water resources, but also introduces risks such as flooding, disruptions to transportation, public health concerns and harm to ecosystems,” according to the weather department. To address those risks, strategies such as reinforcing infrastructure and the use of the IMD’s early warning systems should be adopted, it said.

Last year’s rains were 108% of the long-term average, according to the weather department, making it the best monsoon in four years. That followed the weakest rainy season in half a decade in 2023.

 

 

 

 

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