Global Ag News For Sept 5.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Global Food Prices Hold at Two-Year High Amid Record Meat Costs

Global food prices were little changed at the highest in more than two years in August, according to an index of food-commodity costs from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.

• Meat prices rose 0.6%, posting a new all-time high
  • That’s due to higher prices of cattle and sheep meat
• Vegetable oil prices jumped 1.4% to a fresh three-year high
  • “The increase was driven by higher quotations for palm, sunflower and rapeseed oils”
• Sugar prices rose slightly on concerns over Brazil’s production outlook
• Grains and dairy prices declined

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/4 in SRW, up 2 3/4 in HRW, up 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 1 1/4; Soymeal up $2.00; Soyoil up 0.13.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 12 in SRW, down 12 in HRW, down 9 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans down 19 1/4; Soymeal down $3.90; Soyoil down 0.03.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 11 1/2 in SRW, down 10 3/4 in HRW, down 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans down 20 1/4; Soymeal down $3.30; Soyoil down 0.08.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.2% in SRW, down 14.2% in HRW, down 7.8% in HRS; Corn is down 12.3%; Soybeans up 1.4%; Soymeal down 9.2%; Soyoil up 28.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans up 9 yuan; Soymeal down 5; Soyoil up 52; Palm oil up 80; Corn up 19 — Malaysian Palm is up 6.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 6 ringgit (+0.14%) at 4448.

There were changes in registrations (-350 Soybeans, -20 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 176 Oats; 0 Corn; 237 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 455 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 4 were: SRW Wheat up 9,095 contracts, HRW Wheat up 5,413, Corn up 6,527, Soybeans down 8,784, Soymeal up 3,210, Soyoil up 843.

 

WET WEATHER COULD DELAY SPRING CROP HARVESTS IN WESTERN EUROPE IN SEPTEMBER

Reuters/LSEG

What to Watch:

• August saw heatwaves in Southwest Europe, while most European countries experienced below-normal precipitation, impacting spring crops but supporting wheat harvests
• An active weather expected across Western Europe over the next 10-15 days will disrupt the spring crop harvests
• Warm and dry conditions in the Black Sea area will facilitate harvesting activities and early wheat plantings

 

THE ODDS OF WEAK LA NIÑA CONDITIONS LATER THIS YEAR REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH

Reuters/LSEG

What to Watch:

• Our latest ENSO forecast for September-November maintains an increased likelihood of entering weak La Niña phase
• Major crop risks include adverse conditions for winter wheat development in Argentina, and excessive rainfall across Western Europe and Australia during respective harvests
• A warm forecast across all Northern Hemisphere latitudes reduces the risk of early frost events

 

Northern Plains: Another strong front will move through on Thursday with another round of cold air that could mean some frosts through the weekend. Temperatures will at least fall into the 30s in many areas. If frosts do occur, they could quickly end what has been a strong summer of good weather and cut back on yields significantly.

Central/Southern Plains: A front will move through Friday into the weekend. Scattered showers will be possible with both fronts, but temperatures will take another dip, being below normal into Monday. A system will likely develop in the region along the stalled front again Sunday or Monday with more showers moving through the south. For maturing corn and soybeans, any rain would not be favorable. However, for those that could still use a rain, it would be. Temperatures will rise next week and should be beneficial for harvest.

Midwest: A front moved through over the last couple of days and another will move through tonight and Friday. In addition to scattered showers, the fronts are bringing through some very cold air. Temperatures may break below 40 degrees across the north and frosts cannot be ruled out through Monday. If frosts do occur, it would be extremely early and put an end to the season well before normal.

Delta: Isolated showers moved through this week. Another front will drop south into the region over the weekend with a few showers as well. Otherwise, drier weather should favor maturing crops and harvest. Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to drop and the lack of rainfall in the Ohio Valley especially will cause transportation issues this fall.

Brazil: A front across the south will continue to produce rainfall through Saturday, getting showers as far north as Parana. Another front will move through southern areas with showers Sunday and Monday. Spring planting will begin in a couple of weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south, which seems to be the case. Central Brazil will wait until wet season rains arrive at the end of September or more likely in October.

Argentina: Recent heavy rainfall was beneficial for heading wheat as well as increasing soil moisture ahead of corn planting, which begins in a couple of weeks. Cold air is producing some frosts though, and heading winter wheat may have sustained some damage. Producers may delay the start of corn planting until they feel temperatures will cooperate. A couple of fronts over the next couple of weeks may bring through some more risks of cold air and frosts that could cause damage to winter crops and delays to harvest.

Europe: An upper-level system has brought waves of showers through much of the continent this week. More rain is expected to move through in several waves next week as well. For areas with immature corn and other summer crops, the rain has been and will be beneficial. It will also prep soils ahead of winter wheat planting, which begins this month.

Black Sea: Though Europe has been active with rainfall lately, the Black Sea region has not as the poor end of the season continues for much of the region, especially southwestern Russia. The active pattern over Europe will continue to largely bypass the region, which not only puts on a bad end to the current season, but also is poor for the coming winter wheat planting season, which begins this month.

Australia: A system will move through Western Australia over the next couple of days with widespread showers. The system will lose a lot of its potential for showers as it moves through the east this weekend, but may bring a better shot of rain with a secondary system early next week, at least for some areas. Western Australia has had favorable weather conditions for the last couple of months while the east has had hit-or-miss weather and longer stretches of low precipitation or complete dryness. With wheat heading, we could be seeing some yield limitations in the east.

China: Recent rainfall across central China has been favorable given the region has had issues with heat and dryness throughout much of the season. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions. Central China will go through a brief dry period through the middle of the week before another system moves through for late week. The heavier rainfall in the central is also favorable for prepping soils ahead of winter wheat and canola planting.

 

The player sheet for 9/4 had funds: net sellers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 7,000 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and buyers of 2,500 soyoil.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.1% to 22.564M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.442 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.075m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.067m

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of three analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Friday for week ending Aug. 28.

• Corn est. range 900k – 2,200k tons, with avg of 1,383k
• Soybean est. range 500k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 900k

 

StoneX Cuts US Corn Yield Est., But Hikes Output; Soy Seen Lower

US corn yields are estimated at 186.9 bu/acre, down from 188.1 bu/acre last month, advisory StoneX said Thursday in a survey.

• Corn production seen at 16.577 billion bushels, up from 16.323 billion forecast previously
  • NOTE: The US Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for harvested corn acres as well as yield in an Aug. 12 report
  • NOTE: USDA will make its next estimate on Sept. 12
• StoneX seens soybean yield at 53.2 bu/acre, down from 53.6 bu/acre last month
• Soy production eases to 4.257 billion bushels, compared with 4.425 billion last month

 

Ukraine Corn Output Seen at Four-Season High in 2025-26: Argus

Ukraine’s 2025-26 corn production is forecast at a four-season high of 31.3m tons by Argus Media following a virtual crop tour.

• It’s up from 26.9m tons the previous season, but still 9% below the five-year average
  • The estimated crop would be the largest since the 2021-22 season, Argus Media data show
• Yields are forecast at 6.96 tons per hectare, above both last season and the five-year average
  • It was boosted by sufficient rainfall in the country’s key producing regions during the growing cycle
  • While some concerns remain for the crop in regions such as the southern areas of Poltava and Cherkasy regions, yield recovery in the western and northern areas should offset this
• Corn exports are also forecast to increase to 26m tons in the 2025-26 season, up almost 6m tons from the season before

 

Ukraine’s Grain Harvest at 28.8M Tons So Far: Economy Ministry

Ukraine’s farmers have harvested 28.8m tons of early grains and legumes as of Friday, according to a statement on the Economy Ministry’s website.

• That’s slightly below the 29.1m tons collected at a similar time last year
• Grain collected from 6.9m hectares, or 62% of the total area to be harvested
• The total includes:
  • 22m tons of wheat versus 21.8m tons last year
  • 5.3m tons of barley versus 5.5m tons last year
• Sunflower harvest has reached 208,000 tons vs almost 1.4m tons in the same period last year
• Farmers in central Vinnytsia and Cherkasy regions have started harvesting sugar beets

 

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Fall 43% Y/y So Far This Season

Ukraine has exported 4.5m tons of grain and legumes since the season started on July 1, compared with 7.92m tons at a similar time last year, the agriculture ministry said on its website.

Total includes:

• 2.99m tons of wheat, down 27% y/y
• 651,000 tons of barley, down 42,1% y/y
• 886,000 tons of corn, down 64% y/y

 

Russia harvests 100 mln t of grain so far in 2025, IFX says

Russia has harvested 100 million metric tons of grain so far in 2025, the Interfax news agency reported on Friday citing Russian Agriculture Ministry.

The ministry expects the total grain crop for the year to reach at least 135 million tons.

 

Rains Boost Argentina Wheat That Was Already Doing Well: Bourse

While the Santa Rosa storm flooded some farms, the rains are broadly seen as positive since wheat plants will soon demand more water for their development, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.

• Almost all the wheat area remains in a good-to-excellent condition at 98% vs. 99% last week
• NOTE: Bourse analysts said last week that expectations for the crop were high, with yields seen surpassing the historical average
• Area estimate kept at 6.7m hectares (16.6m acres)
• CORN:
  • Harvest progress of 2024-25 crop reaches 98.5%
  • Production estimate kept at 49m metric tons
  • Planting of 2025-26 crop slow due to waterlogged farms, but expected to pick up in coming days

 

Argentine Corn Production Estimate Sept. 4: Exchange (Table)

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2024-25 corn production estimate maintained at 49m tons
• Harvesting advanced to 98.5% from 97.2%

 

World Grain Stockpiles Outlook Raised to Record High: FAO

World grain stockpiles at the end of the 2025-26 season are now seen at 898.7m tons, up 9.6m tons from a July forecast and an all-time high, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization said in a report Friday.

• That’s due to higher reserves of coarse grains, while the outlook for wheat stockpiles declines
  • Wheat reserves now seen holding about steady y/y due to downward revisions for Iran and the EU
• World grain production is also seen at an all-time high, reaching 2.96b tons
  • That’s 35.6m tons above the July forecast
  • Prospects for coarse grain are rising due to a bigger corn crop in the US and an improving outlook in Brazil and Mexico
  • Meanwhile, the world wheat crop outlook was cut slightly amid lower yields in China and smaller-than-expected plantings in Argentina

 

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 6.75 million tons in September – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.75 MILLION TNS IN SEPTEMBER VERSUS 5.16 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.94 MILLION TNS IN SEPTEMBER VERSUS 1.62 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.37 MILLION TNS IN SEPTEMBER VERSUS 6.56 MILLION TNS IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR

 

Brazil August Agriculture, Mining Exports by Volume: MDIC

Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.

• Coffee exports fell 31% in August from a year ago
• Beef exports rose 24% y/y

 

Palm oil yields at risk as Ganoderma appears in earlier planting cycles

• Ganoderma spreads in Malaysia, affecting newly replanted areas
• Fungal infection could reduce palm oil yields significantly
• Palm board says 13.7% of surveyed Malaysian palm areas infected

A fungal disease once confined to older palm trees in coastal areas is spreading across Malaysian palm plantations and appearing much earlier in growth cycles, threatening yields in newly replanted areas, agricultural industry experts say.

The rise of the fungus in second-largest palm oil exporter Malaysia, as well as in top producer Indonesia, is another headache for an industry struggling with stagnating output of the world’s most popular vegetable oil as plantations age.

Ganoderma, the fungus, is emerging in second-generation plantings, whereas previously it was only evident after three planting cycles, said Julian McGill, managing director of oil crop advisory firm Glenauk Economics.

The disease occurs more frequently when successive palm generations are replanted on the same land.

“The enforcement of zero-burning policies in the field has also increased its spread, and examples of Ganoderma in newer plantings, inland soils and younger trees appear to be becoming more frequent,” McGill said.

Ganoderma spreads slowly but detection is difficult.

“By the time you see the symptoms in the field the disease is already well established, and the infection may have spread,” McGill said.

Previously, plantations would burn old trees to make way for new plantings and that would stop the spread of an existing infection, but burning has been banned because of its contribution to Southeast Asia haze events.

Chong Khim Phin, a professor of plant pathology at the University Malaysia Sabah, said some studies estimate that a 1% increase in Ganoderma infection could reduce plantation yield by 0.5% to 0.8%, depending on factors including tree age and infection density.

“Over a 25-year crop cycle, this could mean a cumulative loss of 15%–20% in fresh fruit bunches (FFB) productivity in heavily affected areas,” he said.

According to Malaysian Palm Oil Board data, of 1.46 million hectares of oil palm area surveyed last year, 199,644 hectares, or 13.7%, were infected with Ganoderma, with the states of Johor, Sabah, Sarawak, Perak and Negeri Sembilan most affected.

Data on previous years was unavailable. Malaysia’s total oil palm planted area is 5.61 million hectares.

Ganoderma will potentially cut into yields and palm oil output and further tighten global supplies, which have already been impacted by replanting delays and Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate, driving palm prices to a premium to soybean oil last year, reversing years of discounts.

 

Brazil Minister Says EU Sees Country Bird-Flu Free: Globo Rural

The European Union has decided to consider Brazil free from bird flu, local news outlet Globo Rural reported citing a post on X from Brazilian Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro.

• Decision could reopen the bloc for Brazilian chicken meat, which has been halted since the identification of an outbreak of the disease on a commercial farm in the municipality of Montenegro: Globo Rural
• Favaro also said that Europeans have committed to discussing a change in the way industrial plants exporting poultry meat are authorized, according to Globo Rural

 

China Hits EU Pork With Initial Duties Up to 62% After Probe

China slapped preliminary duties on pork imports from the European Union, a move set to disrupt shipments from one of the world’s biggest suppliers and further stoke trade tensions between Brussels and Beijing.

The Asian nation will impose preliminary levies ranging from 15.6% to 62.4% on cargoes of the meat, China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on its website. The government accused European companies of dumping certain pork and pig byproducts and said its domestic industry has “suffered material injury.”

Major pork exporters Danish Crown A/S and some units of Vion Food Group face rates of 31.3% and 32.7% respectively, according to the ruling. It will be paid as a deposit until the duties are finalized.

Spokespersons for Danish Crown and Vion did not immediately comment.

The measures come as China struggles with a domestic oversupply of pork and sluggish consumption amid a sustained economic downturn. Still, the hefty duties risk another blow to beleaguered hog farmers in Europe who are contending with slowing demand and the fallout from disease outbreaks.

Beijing had started an anti-dumping probe into shipments from the bloc last year, which was extended in June, as part of countermeasures to the EU’s investigations into Chinese subsidies across a range of subsidies. The EU last October voted to impose tariffs as high as 45% on electric vehicles from China.

The decision also comes as China remains entangled in trade disputes with other major agriculture trading partners from the US to Canada.

Beijing said on Friday it will extend an ongoing anti-dumping probe into rapeseed shipments from Canada, where the crop is also know as canola, until March 2026 “given the complexity of the case.” China had already decided to impose preliminary duties of 75.8% on Canadian canola in August.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 384k tons in the week ending Aug. 30 from 485k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 36% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 8.2% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $20.19 per short ton, an increase of $1.56 from the previous week

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending Sept. 2: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending Sept. 2, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Drought conditions in corn-growing areas increased to 9% vs 5% in the previous week
• Drought in soybean areas rose to 16% from 11%

 

China extends anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola

China will extend an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola imports to March 9, 2026, the commerce ministry said on Friday.

 

Canada to unveil promised aid for aluminum, canola sectors soon

Canada will soon unveil a series of promised measures to help the steel and aluminum sector deal with U.S. tariffs, and will also aid canola farmers, government officials said on Thursday.

Industry Minister Melanie Joly told reporters in Toronto that aid designed to help aluminum companies overcome uncertainties caused by the tariffs would be rolled out in the coming days.

Joly also said Ottawa would help the steel sector pivot away from U.S. markets, but did not give details.

Separately, the office of Prime Minister Mark Carney said the government would shortly announce measures to help canola farmers, who have been hit by Chinese tariffs against the oilseed crop.

The iPolitics news service, citing sources, said the government was preparing to make a series of major announcements on Friday, focusing on economic and industrial competitiveness. Carney’s office declined to comment.

Canada is still hoping for relief from U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos, and work to have the measures lifted is continuing, the federal minister in charge of bilateral trade said earlier on Thursday.

Dominic LeBlanc, speaking to reporters in Toronto, said Canada was seeking common ground with Washington on the matter.

 

 

 

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