Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. GS said stocks should trend higher but would end lower by month end. USD is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is unch. Senate passed Trump BBB but need VP yes vote. Now to House. Fed Chairman said if not for tariffs he would have already cut rates. US July temps above for AR, MS, MO,W IA, E NE and PNW. Rain below ave for AR, MS, MO, NE and PNW.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.23. Dalian soybean, soymeal were lower. Palmoil and soyoil were higher. Trade est US May soybean crush at 204.7 mil bu vs 191.6 ly. Soymeal futures, spreads and basis are lower searching for demand. StoneX est Brazil soybean crop at 168.75 mmt vs 168.25 previous and some est near 170-175 mmt, Argentina June exports were up 87 pct vs ly and $37 billion. Soybean export licenses are up 2.8 mmt, soyoil up 670 mt and meal up 3.3 mmt before increase in export tax. BBB passed Senate now to House with 45Z included with only NA feed stocks for biofuel. EU oilseed imports 22.2 mmt vs 19.6 ly, meal 21.9 mmt vs 19.4 and vegoil 5.78 mmt vs 7.38 ly.
CORN
CU is near 4.04. Dalian corn was lower. China buyers more interested in barley than corn. Stone X est Brazil corn crop at 136.1 mmt vs 134 previous and some est above 140 mmt. Increase Brazil corn exports could drop US exports to 2,200 mil bu and increase US 25/26 carryout to 2,200. Brazil export prices higher due to late harvest, slow farmer selling and corn going for ethanol vs export. EU corn imports are up 3 pct vs ly, exports down 41 pct. Argentina corn export licenses are up 4.6 mmt before increase in export tax. There was active buy wheat sell corn spreading.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.50. KWU is near 5.32. MWU is near 6.28. Australia wheat futures made new lows. Failure for WZ to trade below 5.60, US WW harvest at 50 pct and lower USD triggered short covering and active buy wheat sell corn spreading. WU-CU spread near +150 up from +130. June High was +160. EU wheat exports are down 34 pct vs ly. Est od EU crop range from up 5 mmt vs ly to up 12 mmt.
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