Written Commentary
Grains are higher. SU is up 10 cents and near 9.00. CU is up 4 cents and near 3.48. WU is up 1 cent and near 4.93. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is lower.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 15 cents; HRW up 5; HRS unchanged; Corn was up 28 cents; Soybeans up 35; Soymeal up $14.00, and; Soyoil up 65 points.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 63 yuan, up 5 in Corn, up 20 in Soymeal, up 50 in Soyoil, and up 16 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 37 ringgit at 2,395 (basis September) at midsession on estimates of lower June stockpiles.
U.S. Midwest 6-10 day forecast sees below average rainfall to occur in the region. Any rains that do occur look to be light or isolated and favor more of the northern sections of the Midwest. The 11-16 day forecast for the Midwest has a bit of a difference in the models with the European seeing ridging to continue while, the GFS has the ridge moving back west bringing some rainfall to the region. Temps will run above average for the next 10 days across the Midwest.
For the week ended June 25th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 1% ahead of a year ago, shipments down 3% with the USDA forecasting a 2% decline on the year, U.S. Corn sales are running 13% behind a year ago, shipments 21% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline and U.S. Soybean sales are running 7% behind a year ago, shipments down 1% with the USDA forecasting a 6% decline on the year
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has put on hold indefinitely a proposal for the amount of biofuels refiners must blend into their fuel next year; many anticipated the proposal would come out in late June or early July; the EPA was expected to lift biofuel blending obligations in 2021 to 20.17 billion gallons, from 20.09 billion this year; the EPA had no comment.
Due to the US holiday the CFTC commit of traders report as delayed until Monday. We estimate Managed Money net short 36,000 contracts of SRW Wheat (-6,000); short 185,000 Corn (-23,000); net long 75,000 Soybeans (+22,000); net short 40,000 lots of Soymeal (-6,000), and; long 5,000 Soyoil (+9,000).
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