Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
March Madness. Grains are mixed to lower. SK is down 4 cents and near 11.79. SMK is near 339.2. BOK is near 46.29. CK is down 3 cents and near 4.36. WK is unch and near 5.37. KWK is down 5 cents and near 5.83. MWK is down 4 cents and near 6.58. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. China producer price index dopped for 17 straight month. US consumer prices index is Tuesday. Start of Ramadan could slow food demand.
SK is near 11.79. Bears feel USDA could increase carryout 30 mil bu due to lower exports. Some feel USDA may be too high in China imports. Late rally Friday in soybeans, linked to talk Conad could drop Brazil crop closer to 147 vs USDA 155. Brazil soybean harvest is near 58 pct. BOK had an outside day but closed below Thursdays close. Most look for higher soyoil prices led by higher World biofuel demand. Managed funds have a record soybean short. SK now between 11.62 support and 12.07 resistance.
CK is near 4.36. Resistance 4.43. Bears still feel USDA could increase carryout 100 mil bu due to lower exports. Conab crop est Tuesday. Threats of lower Brazil crop and uncertain US summer weather could begin to offset higher current US and Ukraine supply. Managed funds remain short for any US summer weather problem. CK now between 4.29 support and 4.48 resistance.
Wheat futures are mixed to lower. KWK is between 5.77 support and 6.03 resistance. MWK is near the 20 DMA. WK is finding resistance due to China cancelling open US SRW sales. Wheat rallies could be limited given higher Russia and EU supplies and lower prices. Some feel USDA may be to low in their estimate of Russia supply. Managed funds remain short US futures for any 2024 weather issue. Bears are still in control as long as World 2024 weather is normal.
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