Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed . SF is up 3 cents and near 11.51. SMF is near 389.9. BOF is near 36.86. CZ is up 1 cent and near 4.11. CH21 is near 4.20. WZ is down 5 cents and near 5.87. WH21 is near 5.95. KWZ is down 5 cents and near 5.46. KWH21 is near 5.54. US stock market is higher. Stocks supported by improving Asian economies and talk of no US wide lockdown. Crude is higher. US Dollar is lower. Gold is higher.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 5 cents; HRW down 2; HRS down 2; Corn was up 6 cents; Soybeans up 47; Soymeal up $7.00, and; Soyoil up 175 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 40 yuan in soybeans, up 28 in Corn, down 35 in Soymeal, up 130 in Soyoil, and up 60 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up at 3,311 (basis February) at midsession following vegoil gains seen in China.
US south plains remains dry. Russia could see some moisture in the form of snow but temps turn much colder. Parts of Argentina and central Brazil saw weekend rains. South Brazil and east Argentina forecast is dry. Central/north Brazil soybean plantings increased. South Brazil still delayed. Second Brazil corn crop delayed.
There are rumors of China interest in US corn. Some estimate US 2020/21 corn exports near 2,900. France may have bought 1 cargo of US corn from lakes to test government import tax.
Private estimates of US 2020/21 corn carryout are near 1,627 vs USDA 1,702. 2021/22 1,532 vs USDA 1,792. One group estimate US 2021 corn acres near 91.7, yield 181.0, crop 15,270. Some feel acres need to be 94.0.
Soybean futures could trade over $12.00 if SA weather stays dry and China adds to US soybean exports.
China bought 2021 US soybeans and April Brazil soybeans. US 2020/21 soybean exports could be 2,350.
Soyoil futures continue to be supported by drop in World palmoil and sunoil supplies, higher World demand. Soymeal futures are supported by talk of tight US 2020/21 soybean supplies and lower SA soybean crops.
US Oct NOPA soybean crush is est near 177 mil bu versus 175 ly. Soyoil stocks near 1,448 vs 1,423 ly.
Private estimates of US 2020/21 soybean carryout are near 65 vs USDA 190. 2021/22 105 vs USDA 155
Same group estimate US 2021 soybean acres near 89.0, crop 4,587. Some feel acres need to be near 91.0.
Wheat futures lack news. Dry weather in US and Black Sea limits downside. Higher corn prices supportive.
For the week ended November 5th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 12% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 1% with the USDA forecasting a 1% increase on the year, U.S. Corn sales are running 174% ahead of a year ago, shipments 67% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 49% increase. U.S. Soybean sales are running 125% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 88% with the USDA forecasting a 31% increase on the year, Soymeal sales up 2%, shipments down 9% with a 4% decline forecasted and Soyoil sales 18% ahead of a year ago, shipments 42% behind with an 8% decrease forecasted.
On Friday, Managed funds were net buyers of 4,000 wheat, 5,000 corn, 6,000 soybeans, 1,000 soymeal and 1,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed funds to be net long 40,000 wheat, 314,000 corn, 288,000 soybeans, 94,000 soymeal and 113,000 soyoil.
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