Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are sharply lower. Trump did not announce a new US/China trade deal in Des Moines. US stocks are lower. USD is higher. Crude is near $65 but OPEC announced increase in production in August. Gold is lower. Russia increasing bombing of Kiev. CFTC weekly report delayed until today.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.21. Some feel could fall back to recent low near 10.10. Trump did not announce US/China rumored trade deal in Des Moines. Trade awaits word on EPA announcement on SRE’s for refiners that have claimed financial hardship due to blending requirements under the RVO. US central Midwest is favorable to July 22. Trade is looking for USDA to increase US soybean G/E rating which suggest a yield of 53.0-53.5. S&P Global increased SA soybean crops 6 mmt. Increase SA soybean supplies could lower final US exports. US soybean export commit is near 49.9 mmt vs 44.6 ly..
CORN
CU is near 4.07. Trump did not announce US/China rumored trade deal in Des Moines. US central Midwest is favorable to July 22. Normal US Midwest July weather during pollination could suggest harvest low near 3.80. Trade is looking for USDA to increase US corn G/E rating which suggest a yield of 186. Increase SA corn supplies could lower final US exports. US corn export commit is near 68.1 mmt vs 53.7 ly. S&P Global decreased World corn crops 2.8 mmt (mostly China).
WHEAT
WU is near 5.44. Combination of Increase north hemisphere harvest and seasonal post harvest rally could keep nearby Chicago wheat in broad 5.00-5.80 range. KWU is near 5.36. MWU is near 6.47. Concern about EU protein has increased talk of higher demand for milling wheat and talk lower EU corn crop could increase EU wheat feeding. Still Black Sea wheat prices have retraced to last year’s harvest lows. US wheat export commit is near 7.1 mmt vs 6.8 ly. S&P Global decreased World wheat crops 3 mmt ( lowered Russia 2 mmt and Canada 2 mmt but raised EU 1 mmt).
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
