Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Trade will be watching Iran reaction to US firing rockets at Iran Nuclear facilities. Some say if this ends the conflict Crude and gold could take out war premium. Others fear Iran retaliation including closing the Strait of Hormuz could rally Crude closer to $100. US Midwest will see above normal temps continuing early this week. Temps will return to normal mid week with new rains. US stocks are slightly higher. USD is higher. Crude is unch and near $72 after testing $76. Gold is lower.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.50. BOU is near 55 cents. SMU is near 289. Dalian soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. Some est US June 1 soybean stocks near 984 mil bu vs 970 ly. Trade est US soybean crop rating to increase from last weeks 66 pct G/E. Some est US 2025/26 biofuel use near 16,000 mil lbs vs USDA est of 13.900. Weekly US soybean export sales were 539 mt. Total commit is near 49.1 mmt vs 44.2. USDA goal is 50.35 vs 46.13 ly.
CORN
CU is near 4.21. Non-threatening US summer weather could drop CZ closer to 3.95. Lower US soymeal prices could reduce DDG feeding. Dalian corn was higher. Some est US June 1 corn stocks near 4,683 mil bu vs 4,997 ly. Trade est US corn crop rating to increase from last weeks 72 pct G/E. Some est Brazil 2025 corn crop at 138 mmt vs USDA 130 and 2026 crop at 155.6 mmt vs USDA 138.6. Weekly US corn export sales were 903 mt. Total commit is near 66.8 mmt vs 52.8 ly. USDA goal is 67.3 mmt vs 58.2 ly.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.80. KWU is near 5.77. MWEU is near 6.56. Some est US June 1 wheat stocks near 842 mil bu vs 696 ly. Weekly US wheat export sales were est at 427 mt. Total commit is 6.3 mmt vs 5.4 ly. USDA goal is 22.45 mmt vs 22.32 ly. World trade is 214.3 mmt vs 204.9 ly. Funds did cover shorts on geopolitical concerns and positive tech signals. Wheat prices could find resistance from upcoming north hemisphere harvest. Last week, US WW harvest was 10 pct. USDA rated US SW crop 57 pct G/E. Wheat could also see higher cash wheat supplies and lack of meaningful improvement to global import demand.
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