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Lower Prices Likely for the Dollar


The U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest level since August 4 ,2023.

Lower prices are likely for the U.S. dollar longer term.

dollar bills

German import prices fell 9.0% year-on-year in November 2023, following a 13.0% decline in the previous month, marking the ninth consecutive period of falling import prices.

The Swiss franc advanced to the highest level against the U.S. dollar since 2015 and is near a nine-year high versus the euro.

The U.K. economy shrank 0.1% on the quarter in the third quarter, compared to initial estimates of a flat reading.

One of the Bank of England’s most hawkish policymakers appeared to signal that he is re-thinking his “higher-for-longer” position on interest rate policy after Wednesday’s unexpectedly sharp decline in inflation.

The annual inflation rate in Japan declined to 2.8% in November 2023 from 3.3% in the prior month. The core inflation rate declined to 2.5% from 2.9%, matching the consensus view. On a monthly basis consumer prices decreased 0.1% after a 0.7% gain in October.

Industrial production in Japan was projected to shrink 1.6% in November from the previous month, according to a median estimate of economists, followed by 1.3% growth in October.


Stock index futures are mixed to higher and are performing better than the news would suggest.

Durable goods orders in November were up 5.4% when an increase of 2.4% was expected.

Personal income in November increased 0.4% as anticipated, and personal consumption expenditures were up 0.2% when up 0.3% was forecast.

The 9:00 November new home sales report is estimated to show 690,000.

The 9:00 December consumer sentiment index is anticipated to be 69.4, and year ahead inflation expectations are predicted to be 3.1%.

The fundamentals and technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.


Futures were supported by the belief that the Federal Reserve will pivot to cutting interest rates next year.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 16% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce its fed funds rate by 25 points at its January 31, 2024  policy meeting and an 84% probability of no change.


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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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