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Lukewarm Demand for Coffee


Coffee has been dealing with lukewarm global demand since the start of the pandemic, as the prospect of additional restaurant and retail shop closings in Europe will be source of pressure. Uncertainties for the flowering period has helped the market find support. Colombian production has fallen below a 14 million bag annualized pace and has only had 2 out of 9 months this year when their monthly output came in above the previous year’s total.


The market may have found a short-term low. While global demand concerns will remain a front and center issue, cocoa is finding carryover support from key outside markets as well as near-term bullish supply news that can help the market bounce. Reports of new lockdowns in several European nations weighed on prices early in the day as that region accounts for more than 30% of global cocoa processing without a domestic source for cocoa beans.


December cotton traded to its highest level since February 25 as the USDA report may show tightening supply and the short-term weather forecast remains bullish. Traders seem to be getting increasingly concerned about the expected arrival of Hurricane Delta along the Gulf coast later this week.


Sugar’s upside breakout move has come with little carryover support from its key outside markets as a bullish shift in Brazilian weather has become a significant source of strength. Given most of Brazil’s near-term supply glut is likely to go into the global export marketplace, however, sugar may be closing in on a near-term top “if” Brazil weather returns to normal.

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