Written Commentary
GOLD
Gold futures are sharply lower as investors wait for news from the White House on potential tariffs on the yellow metal and inflation data that will provide a steer on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. The White House said on Friday that it would issue an executive order clarifying its stance on the tariffs after it was reported that one kilogram gold bars would be subject to levies. Investors will closely monitor key US economic data releases later this week, including CPI, PPI, and retail sales, for more clues on the Fed’s rate path.
According to a ruling on the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) service’s website on Friday, Washington may place the most widely traded gold bullion bars in the United States under country-specific import tariffs, a move that would roil the metal’s global supply chains. The White House intends to issue an executive order in the near future “clarifying misinformation” about tariffs on gold bars and other specialty products, a White House official told Reuters on Friday. US gold futures pared gains after the comment.
On the trade front, a deadline for China to agree to a tariff deal with Washington, due to expire on Tuesday, is expected to be extended again, while President Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin are due to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending the Ukraine war.
Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net buyers of 18,965 contracts of gold for the week ending August 5, increasing their net long to 161,811.
SILVER
Silver futures are sharply lower, losing some of last week’s gains as a wave of profit-taking gripped investors ahead of key inflation data on Tuesday. Investors also await an announcement on whether the August 12 deadline for the US-China tariff truce will be extended.
For silver, managed money traders were net sellers of 13,012 contracts, reducing their net long to 30,621.
Silver prices remain supported by a persistent structural supply deficit and strong investor interest. Industrial demand, especially from energy sectors like solar power, EVs, and electronics, continues to grow, with solar alone making up 17% of total demand last year, triple its share a decade ago. Global mine supply has dropped 7% since 2016, contributing to an estimated 800 million oz. shortfall from 2021 to 2025. Investor demand through silver-backed ETPs also plays a major role, with 95 million oz. in net inflows in H1 2025 and over 1.1 billion oz. drawn from mobile inventory since 2019. Despite recent tariff-related headwinds, silver’s long-term outlook remains strong due to its critical role in clean energy technologies, as evidenced by rising solar capacity in China and Europe and resilient semiconductor demand.
COPPER
Copper futures are lower after Chile allowed mining to resume at Codelco’s El Teniente mine and the dollar strengthened, while the market awaited more clues on the path of interest rates.
Traders are closely watching the large copper shipments that arrived in the US ahead of broad tariffs. Price spreads between London, New York, and Shanghai will guide metal flows, with US copper futures currently trading about $130/ton above LME prices, narrowing the incentive for exports. Any deviation beyond a $100–$200 spread between CME and LME is likely to trigger shifts in copper movement.
Chinese producer prices fell more than expected in July, while consumer prices were unchanged, highlighting sluggish domestic demand. There are hopes that demand from China, the world’s top metals consumer, will improve in September, usually a peak season, and that Beijing and Washington will again extend their deadline to reach a trade deal.
Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net sellers of 17,494 contracts of copper for the week ending August 5, reducing their net long to 18,032.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
