Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. North America weather forecast is crop favorable. Stocks are lower. Crude, USD and Gold are mixed to higher. USDA US and World supply and demand report June 12. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Wednesday that a trade framework and implementation plan agreed with China in London should result in restrictions on rare earths and magnets being resolved.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.61. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures higher while soyoil and plamoil are lower. Matif rapeseed future tested key resistance before backing off. There remains uncertainty over EPA biofuel policy. Trade est US 2024/25 soybean carryout to 351 mil bu and 2025/6 at 298. One group looks for lower US 25/26 exports and carryout closer to 500. Trade est World 2025/26 soybean end stocks at 124.5 mmt vs 124.3 in May. Same group looks for US 2024/25 soyoil carryout closer to 1,090 mil lbs vs USDA 1,451 due to lower production and higher exports. Argentina farmer increased cash sales.
CORN
CN is near 4.42. Dalian corn futures were slightly higher. Tuesday short covering rally continues overnight before USDA WASDE report. Matif August corn futures made new contract lows. Trade est US 2024/25 corn carryout to 1,392 mil bu and 2025/26 1,792. One group est US 2025/36 carryout closer to 2,030 mill bu due to lower exports. Trade est World 2025/26 corn end stocks at 278.8 mmt vs 277.8 in May. Vietnam signed deal to buy US corn vs SA. Ukraine corn supply tight with exports 18 mmt or 82 pct of USDA 22 mmt goal. Taiwan bought Brazil corn. Most buyers are looking at Brazil for coverage. EU corn imports are up 7 pct vs ly. Exports down 41 pct vs ly.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.36. Showers are forecast for China and S Russia. Saskatchewan Canada may miss the rains. Est for Russia crop are higher and near 84 mmt. EU could be closer to 138 mmt. EU wheat exports are down 32 pct vs ly. Trade est US wheat crop at 1,924 mil bu vs 1,921 in May. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout to 842 mil bu and 2025/26 at 924. Australia wheat futures near 7 month low. Argentina new crop farmer selling increased. US S plains weather drier and should help harvest.
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