Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Month end. Grains are quietly mixed. US Midwest turns drier with generally below normal temps, before turning warmer in 8-14 day. Supply driven bear market continues. US stocks are higher. USD is lower. Higher than expected private payroll and economic growth data weighed on USD. Fed Chairman left rates unch looking at jobs, tariffs and inflation. 2 Governors voted for rate cut. Crude is unch. Metals lower after Trump announce 50 pct tariff on copper. Trump delayed a 50 pct tariff on Brazil 7 days. Trump also said it may be hard to reach a deal with Canada after they announced they will recognize Palestine state.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 9.76. There was some month end liquidation of long soybean and short corn spread. There were 349 soybean deliveries, LDC was stopper. There were 84 soyoil deliveries,. There were 1,026 soymeal deliveries. US spat with India has beanoil/oilshare/crush margins in profit-taking mode. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 100-300 mt old crop vs 160 last week and 100-600 mt new crop vs 238 last week. Brazil soybean export basis firm. China is covered for Aug-Sep, mostly from Brazil.
CORN
CU is near 3.92. Corn futures were supported by liquidation of short corn and soybean spread and short corn and long wheat spread. Brazil corn export basis is firm due to increase domestic demand. S Korea bought391 mt corn in tender. Weekly US old crop export sales are est at 200-800 mt vs 643 last week and new crop are est at 699-2,000 mt vs 733 last week. Weekly ethanol production was down 1.7 pct vs ly, Stocks were up 3.1 pct vs ly. 110 mil bu of corn was used versus 81 needed to reach USDA 5,500 mil bu goal.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.23. KWU is near 5.21. MWU is near 5.76. Weak global July wheat exports pressured wheat futures. All 3 classes are at or near contract lows. Weekly US exports are est at 300-700 mt vs 712 last week. Bangladesh to buy 220 mt US wheat to cool tariff tension. Failure to have a strong Aug-Oct program risks major exporter end-stocks ballooning higher.
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