Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
TGIF. USDA report day. Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. USD is higher. Crude is near $65. There is talk of new sanctions on Russia oil and OPEC weighing a pause in increase production after August. IEA lowered 2025 World oil demand due to negative effects of tariffs. Gold is higher on talk of tariff risk being unclear outlook for monetary policy.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.02. Dalian soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher, soybean lower. Weekly US soybean export sales were 503 mt. Total commit is near 50.4 mmt vs 44.8 ly. New crop sales were 248 mt. Open sales remain low and near 1.8 mmt. US central Midwest is favorable to July 22. Trade est US 25/26 soybean carryout at 302 mil bu vs June est of 295. Trade looking for Brazil soybean crop at 169 and Argentina 49. Brazil farmers have increased selling stored soybeans.
CORN
CU is near 3.97. Dalian corn futures were lower. Weekly US corn export sales were 1,260 mt. Total commit is near 69.3 mmt vs 54.2 ly. USDA announced 110 mt US corn to unknown for 25/26. US central Midwest is favorable to July 22. Normal US Midwest July weather during pollination could suggest talk of 184 yield. Domestic US corn basis is weakening. Trade est US 25/26 corn carryout at 1,720 mil bu vs June est of 1,750. Cattle futures made new highs before closing lower. US closed Mexico border again for beef. Some feel beef production will increase in summer with talk of lower retail demand.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.52. Weekly US wheat export sales were 567 mt and near the higher end of trade guess. Combination of Increase north hemisphere harvest and seasonal post harvest rally could keep nearby Chicago wheat in broad 5.00-5.80 range. KWU is near 5.31. HRW domestic prices looking for increase feed use and are trying to follow corn. MWU is near 6.31. Concern about EU protein has increased talk of higher demand for milling wheat and talk lower EU corn crop could increase EU wheat feeding. Russia ordered a boost in its grain and Agriculture exports. Russia farmers continue to be slow sellers of crops.
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