Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. USD is lower. Crude is near $66. Houthis increased attacks on cargo ships in Red Sea. Crude trying to balance increase OPEC production versus hopes of increase summer demand. Gold and Copper are higher. Trump threatened a 50 pct tariff on Brazil imports. Russia increase bombing of Ukraine.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 9.96. SU could test April low near 9.70. On Wednesday there were liquidation of long soybean and short corn spreads. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 300-600 mt vs 462 last week. Dalian palmoil and soyoil were mixed. Palmoil looking for better July exports vs June. Trade awaits word on EPA announcement on SRE’s for refiners that have claimed financial hardship due to blending requirements under the RVO. US central Midwest is favorable to July 22. Trade est US 25/26 soybean carryout at 302 mil bu vs June est of 295. Trade looking for Brazil soybean crop at 169 and Argentina 49,
CORN
CU is near 3.98. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 375-900 mt vs 532 last week. Weekly US ethanol production was up 2.7 pct vs ly. Stocks were up 1.5 pct vs ly. 109 mil bu of corn was used vs 91 needed to reach USDA 5.500 mil bu goal. Dalian corn futures were lower and near 4 month low. US central Midwest is favorable to July 22. Normal US Midwest July weather during pollination could suggest harvest low near 3.60 and talk of 184 yield. Increase SA corn supplies could lower final US exports. Slow Brazil corn harvest could suggest a longer export tail. Trumps announced higher tariffs for S Korea and Japan, large buyers of US corn. Trade est US 25/26 corn carryout at 1,720 mil bu vs June est of 1,750.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.53. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 200-600 mt vs 585 last week. Combination of increase North Hemisphere harvest and seasonal post harvest rally could keep nearby Chicago wheat in broad 5.00-5.80 range. KWU is near 5.33. HRW domestic prices looking for increase feed use and are trying to follow corn. MWU is near 6.37. Wheat seeing some short covering before US export sales and Fridays USDA report. Concern about EU protein has increased talk of higher demand for milling wheat and talk lower EU corn crop could increase EU wheat feeding
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