Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA report day. North America weather forecast is crop favorable. Stocks, Crude and USD are lower. Gold is higher on Mid East tension. Iran warned of retaliation after UN nuclear censure. US ordered Iraq embassy staff to leave on concern Iran could attack US bases. US also ordered no domestic travel in Israel. US CPI data lower than expected. Car and cloth prices were lower. May US tariff revenue was up $22 billion.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.43. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures higher while soyoil and plamoil were lower. There remains uncertainty over EPA biofuel policy. Trade est US 2024/25 soybean carryout to 351 mil bu and 2025/6 at 298. One group looks for lower US 25/26 exports and carryout closer to 500. Trade est World 2025/26 soybean end stocks at 124.5 mmt vs 124.3 in May. Same group looks for US 2024/25 soyoil carryout closer to 1,090 mil lbs vs USDA 1,451 due to lower production and higher exports. USDA should keep China soybean imports at 108 mmt after May was record 13.6 mmt. India May vegoil imports were up from April but down from ly. Weekly US soybean export sales est at 100-500 mt vs 194 last week.
CORN
CN is near 4.36. Dalian corn futures were slightly lower. Trade est US 2024/25 corn carryout to 1,392 mil bu and 2025/26 1,792. One group est US 2025/36 carryout closer to 2,030 mill bu due to lower exports. Vietnam signed deal to buy US corn vs SA. Ukraine corn supply tight with exports 18 mmt or 82 pct of USDA 22 mmt goal. Taiwan bought Brazil corn. Most buyers are looking at Brazil for coverage. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 700-1,200 mt vs 942 last week. US weekly ethanol production was up 9.5 pct vs ly, stocks are up 2.2 pct vs ly.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.31. USDA needs to increase Russia wheat crop but drop exports. EU could be closer to 138 mmt. Australia crop should be increased. Trade est US wheat crop at 1,924 mil bu vs 1,921 in May. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout to 842 mil bu and 2025/26 at 924. US S plains weather now wetter before harvest. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 400-600 mt vs 444 last week.
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