Written Commentary
Morning Outlook
Very mixed financial and commodity trade. SX down 5 cents and near 10.50. SMZ is up 2.20 and near 365.8. BOZ down .67 and near 33.21. CZ is unchanged and near 3.96. WZ is up 5 cents and near 6.02. KWZ is up 6 cents and near 5.41.US stocks are lower. Crude is lower, Gold is lower. US Dollar is higher. Covid cases are on the rise in EU and US. There is no US stimulus package yet.
There is talk China bought 5 US Nov-Jan soybean cargoes and 6-8 Brazil Feb-June.
US 6-10 day forecast is cool NW and hot SE and wet Midwest. Better rains are forecasted for Brazil.
Matif and Black Sea futures are higher despite forecast of rains in Russia.
Argentina estimated 8 pct of central wheat areas will be abandoned due to dry weather. Argentina will not devaluate their currency or seize Bank deposits despite economic crises .
Average estimate for NOPA US Sep soybean crush is near 165.0 mil bu and largest Sep crush on record.
US corn export demand is rising on talk China may imports a total of 30 mmt corn. CZ could trade over CH21.
US weekly export sales report is delayed until Friday due to Mondays holiday . SX20 is 79 cents over SX21. SX21 may need to rally as some feel US farmers will need to harvest 90 million soybean acres in 2021 and a yield of 50 bpa to satisfy demand, offset lower South America crops and tight US 2020/21 balance sheet.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 3,000 SRW Wheat; net bought 15,000 Corn; bought 9,000 Soybeans; bought 6,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 32,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 179,000 Corn; net long 245,000 Soybeans; net long 84,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 86,000 Soyoil.
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